Prediction Changed
1:27 PM 13/04/2007

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Palliser
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Dave Batters

2006 Result:
Dave Batters **
14906
Jo-Anne Dusel
11460
John Williams
7006
Larissa Shasko
1182
Marcia Fogal
121

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 02 26 A.S.
99.233.96.153
To a point, as NDP seats in the twilight of Sask federal NDP seats go, Palliser was more of a quirky ‘Dick Proctor’ seat, so CPC's inherent vulnerability here might be overrated. Though Don Mitchell shows that the NDP's still trying--then again, his background is exactly the sort to fuel the ‘yesterday's party’ sentiment that's been dogging the Sask NDP like dry rot in recent years, i.e. it's not hard to see how, even as the incumbent, Dave Batters might come across as the ‘fresh’ Brad Wall to Mitchell's ‘stale’ Lorne Calvert. But as Palliser contains Rouleau (i.e. ‘Corner Gas’ central), don't ever count the quirky out around here...
07 06 26 SaskPhoenix
198.169.112.254
I am not going to make a prediction as of now, but with the way things are looking for the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs over the broken equalization promises, their re-election chances have become weaker. If Premier Calvert and public opinion continue against the Tories, the urban Tory MPS could be turfed out by angry voters on election day.
07 06 21 binriso
156.34.213.35
Definitely another winnable seat for the NDP but the CPC certainly has an advantage going in here. However Mitchell can easily win and it certainly wouldnt be surprising. TCTC for now but id have to say the CPC better be close to 50% in Saskatchewan if they are going to hold this seat. The NDP will probably spend some resources to try and break back into Saskatchewan after being shut out last 2 elections. Maybe the third time is the charm?
07 04 14 DMD
71.17.148.162
Though far from a Conservative slam-dunk, Palliser will re-elect Dave Batters, I think. The last election saw a huge growth in his margin of victory, almost wholly derived from the collapse of the Liberal vote, a phenomenon which, in this riding, especially in its Regina polls, tends to mean blue Liberals going Tory and NOT left-leaning Liberals going NDP. It's arguable that, in Mitchell, the NDP has a stronger candidate than last time out, but as someone 30+ years older than the incumbent and who has made many political enemies as well as allies over the course of a hyper-partisan and hyper-left career in provincial and federal NDP affairs, he has significant liabilities. Unless the Liberals have someone--and I don't see it, AT ALL, knowing a number of those active in these federal LPC circles in the riding--who can reclaim their vote, to at least 2004 numbers, Batters holds this seat; all the more so, given that he is a fairly well-liked and strong representative for the constituency.
07 04 10 JC
142.55.210.11
This is a very interesting riding, despite the fact Batters has won twice, if there is one riding where the shafting of Saskatchewan could hurt the conservatives this may be it. I think it will be fairly close between Batters and Don Mitchell, Mitchell is a former mayor and alderman of Moose Jaw, a city which Batters won at least over 70% of the polls in, with Mitchell who was a mayor of that city it is quite possible he can shift votes into his camp because of his position. So I say the NDP will take this by a small amount.



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