Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-08-28 16:58:00

Constituency Profile


Lukiwski, Tom

Lysack, Monica

Patterson, Billy

Sklar, Brian

Tom Lukiwski

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • regina-lumsden-lake-centre (144/144 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 27
    This riding will return to the NDP due to local factors plus the national surge towards the NDP
    11 04 13 SouthpawPundit
    The Conservatives have an equally embarrassing Ontario incumbent in the form of David Sweet, and nobody seems to be in much of a hurry to vote this one out. I think our worthless electoral system ensures that decent-minded Canadians are stuck with this twit in Parliament because of vote splitting.
    11 04 11 mb
    This one is going to be a lot closer than it was in the last two elections. Brian Sklar has name recognition and his role in the Western Senators is sure to attract older voters that otherwise would vote Conservative. Tom has only been successful in this riding because of vote splitting between the Liberals and NDPs, winning the first time he ran just by 123 votes. NDP support in this riding is everywhere and it appears that Conservative brand is fading (due to the controversies and voting against the new football stadium) while the Liberal support is completely vanishing (down 18% of the vote from 2004). If people vote strategically in this riding it will easily go to the NDPs.
    11 04 11 dgdghkfhffhfdhla
    i've polled in this riding. lukiwski's lost it through his own statements.
    it may seem shocking, but it seems as though he's running around 20-25% - and that's being generous. i can't see all of that conservative support going to the ndp. i'm thinking we're going to end up with a lot of conservatives temporarily voting liberal for the sole reason of getting rid of an embarrassing mp.
    the conservatives will probably take the seat back in the following election, so long as they don't run a bigot.
    11 03 30 Lowlander
    I think the Conservatives will probably hold this riding, but I do think it'll be a lot closer than in the last few elections. Lukuwski's made some mis-steps, the Conservative brand has faded a bit, and the NDP is better-organized than they have been for a long time.
    11 03 30 EP 1975
    I don't know if it will be enough to win the seat, but I expect the NDP will pick up a lot of votes. Brian Sklar is a best candidate the NDP have ran in RLLC in the last few elections, and Tom Lukiwski has been a been a bit of a lightning rod in terms of criticism of Saskatchewan Conservative MP's. Lukiwski was the face of the federal government's decision not to build a new stadium in Regina, and has a poor relationship with the gay community. That might not be a big factor though, I volunteered in some past campaigns for another party - Lukiwski's electoral strength is in a few rural polls where he captures almost all the vote. Not much Liberal/Green strength in this seat. All the trends are working in Sklar's favour, but it might not be enough to win, that said an upset NDP win here isn't out of the question. NDP/CPC will be first and second in a race that will be closer than people expect.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Historically an NDP leaning riding, but with the NDP dead in rural Saskatchewan and even losing ground in the urban areas, this is now a Tory riding with the NDP only dominating the urban core, but both the suburbuan and rural areas all favouring the Conservatives.
    09 09 17 MDF+
    Perhaps, Scott, you might respond to things I've actually said.
    I said this was a likely Conservative hold, but previous posters had attributed this to the strength of the Conservative Party and the organizational weakness of the NDP.
    This seat was in the NDP camp for 32 years prior to 2000. John Solomon, as a sitting MP, came very close to holding it in 2000. In 2004, the NDP fell to third place. Of the Saskatchewan seats the NDP held through the disaster of 1993, this was the only one where the party has ever fallen to third place. That would tend to suggest both a weak campaign and a week candidate.
    Unless and until the NDP can turn the riding association around, it will likely continue in the Conservative column barring something completely unforeseen.
    The fact that a low profile, last minute candidate was able to hold the NDP vote in 2008 demonstrates the party has a good base to work from once its organizational dysfunction is addressed.
    Yes, the baggage of the Calvert government (inevitable after a 16 year run in office) was part of the problem. But less significant, I would suggest, than the fact that the RLLC NDP is in organizational disarray.
    09 09 07 Scott D
    Unsure how the drop in NDP support in 2004 is blamed on Moe Kovatch. The drop in NDP support from 2000 to 2004 can easily be attributed to the simply fact that in 2000 the NDP candidate was a sitting MLA and had a high profile in the riding and 2004 capped off the transition of the protest vote from the NDP to the Conservative party in Saskatchewan.
    The riding is a likely Conservative win. The riding has seen a continued growth in Conservative support in the past two elections and the Liberal party and the NDP have been slow to nominate candidates to challenge Lukiwski.
    09 09 05 MDF+
    Conservatives definitely have the edge, but other posters are reading too much into the last elections results.
    The NDP candidate in the previous two elections, Mo Kovatch, was a very weak candidate. Even so, he had managed to keep the nomination, only to withdraw suddenly shortly before the election.
    As a result, the NDP were running a last minute replacement. That Fred Kress was prepared to ‘take one for the team,’ and that he managed to hold most of Kovatch's vote speaks well of both him and the NDP organization.
    Certainly the Conservatives have the edge, but it probably isn;t the cakewalk the other posters are predicting.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Turnout went down, Lukiwski's total went up. This in spite of what could have been an embarrassing little scandal for him the year previous. He expanded his lead to more than 7,000, and should have no problem holding the seat, especially with the enhanced profile that a PS spot brings.
    09 08 27 JJ
    In the past, this riding has been a nail-biter, but the Conservatives have have been improving their margin of victory since 2004. Despite the controversy surrounding his comments on the old tape, Lukiwski garnered 51% of the vote last time (the NDP received 29%), enough to consider his victory a landslide. CPC hold.

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