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Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:24 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:43 AM 6/23/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Fiorindo Agi
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Gary Anderson
Moe Kovatch
Tom Lukiwski
Larry Spencer

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre (100.0%)
Larry Spencer

2000 Result/Résultats:
12,440 43.01%
12,249 42.35%
4,232 14.63%
0 0.00%

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
(144/144 polls, 46455/46455 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Michael M. 'Politics International'
Email: [hidden]
At age 53 I have been through 13 federal elections since i first got involved in politics at age 12. During those years I have served as as a personal aide to former Prime Minister John Diefenbaker, and follow politics as close as any political journalist or commentator.
I happen to live in the constituency of Regina Lumsden Lake Centre.
I would like to share my prediction.
I predict the NDP candidate Moe Kovatch will win the seat by a wide margin.
Here is why.
The Liberals have a strong candidate in Gary Anderson. That means in the rural part of the seat where Anderson is from the Liberals will siphon off votes from the Conservatives.
Larry Spencer running as an Independent will siphon off anywhere from 500 to 2000 votes from the Conservatives.
The NDP has a very popular candidate in Moe Kovatch, and he has a very impressive organization to get out the vote.
The result will be a net gain for the NDP and Moe Kovatch will be thenew MP for this constituency.
23/06/04 SaskPhoenix
Email: jrfdragon@hotmail.com
I used to live in this riding (for over 20 years) and had voted Alliance in the last federal election as a vote of protest against the Liberals, and I regret casting my vote for Larry Spencer after he made public his viewpoints on certain issues.
I moved away to Wascana, but I still visit my friends in NW Regina, and I have heard from them that a good number of them are voting NDP as they feel the NDP has a very good chance of retaking Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre due to the likely vote-slpitting between Spencer (as an Independent) and the Conservatives.
This is why the NDP are going to win Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre:
1. Strong and solid urban support - Regina Qu'Appelle Valley voted overwhemingly NDP (and against a popular city councillor running for Sask Party) in the Nov. 2003 provincial election, thanks to the urban portion of that mixed urban-rural riding. Regina Walsh Acres, Regina Rosemont, Regina Coronation Park, and Regina Elphinstone-Centre also voted overwhelmingly NDP as well.
2.Good number of NDP signs in the NW part of Regina - many ppl who live in that riding are a mix of blue-collar and white-collar middle class people and generally support moderate social policies.
3.Many people were shocked and disgusted by Spencer's comments about homosexuality in the Vancouver Sun, and while this is a family-oriented riding the people here are more respectful of diversity and have worked to promote tolerance for different people from different backgrounds. A good number of people who live in the riding have told me that they felt "ashamed to have Spencer" as their MP when he should have known better than to give his constituents a bad name and image.
4. The previous NDP MP, John Solomon (before he lost his seat by a very narrow margin to Spencer) was well-respected and seen as a very decent man. When I lived in his riding, Solomon was concerned about the high gas prices as outlined in his pamphlets, and he never used any nasty words against the Liberals or the Alliance/Reform - he questioned their policies in a respectful fashion w/ great decorum - that was partly why he was re-elected w/ huge margins up to the 2000 federal election. Solomon's way of representing Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre showed a moderate riding that believes in balanced representation and accountability in government.
Summing it all, this riding is going back to NDP orange, and if I was still living there I would cast my vote for the NDP. Larry Spencer and the Conservatives will realize that extremist and socially conservative viewpoints does not really sit too well with the many moderate people of Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre.
21/06/04 BROREP
Email: [hidden]
Been on the doorstep in a few polls, while there is a big undecided vote -Kovatch has a huge lead on Spencer, and the Conservative candidate. The Libs barely even register but will probably pick up votes in the country.
12/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Neither of us has been (or is going to be) in Saskatchewan any time soon and our contacts in Sask are shakey at best. So our NDP prediction is based on some assumption and logical deduction. Assumption #1: The Liberals are polling relativly well in the rural areas. Assumption #2 (and this is less of an assumption but an accepted truth of those who know politics) rural Sask votes Conservative, urban Sask votes NDP. Now for the logical deduction, if the Torys and Liberals are fighting it out in the rural part of the riding they are going to split that right-of-center rural vote and allow the NDP to take the seat with solid urban support. Toss in Larry Spencer stealing some votes and the NDP have a very good chance. Mr. Burton if you think the NDP will not attract support in this riding, please explain why they garnished 42.35% of the vote to the Canadian Alliance's 43.01% in the last election? (and no PC/CA vote splitting none-sense, the PC were not running here in 2000) From the looks of it, they did not have trouble attracting non-rural votes and almost took the riding. Keep in mind the NDP polled way behind what they're polling now in 2000.
05/06/04 JCM
Email: [hidden]
Anyone who thinks the Liberals are going to win this constituency in this election is dreaming!
Anderson has a good presence in the rural portion of the seat - his signs are everywhere in the country, and by way of anecdote, his rural support is solid.
In Regina however, its a different story.
Anderson doesn't have ONE lawn sign in the city.
Furthermore, I dropped in to the Anderson HQ late last Saturday afternoon. The doors were unlocked, and no one was inside! Anyone could have backed a truck to the door, loaded everything up, taken off, and no one would have been the wiser!
Anderson win? He'll be lucky to finish 3rd! What a disorganized loser!
05/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
As for the NDP taking this seat, it could happen, and is very likely it will, but not because of any polling. Polling in Saskatchewan is not always true, look at the last two provincial polls. Both were proven wrong. It will all come down to how many votes will Spencer take.
03/06/04 Jim Douglass
Email: [hidden]
Easy win for the Conservatives. Liberal and NDP stance on gun registry will kill the hopes of Moe and Gary. Lukiski will win every rural poll and 2/3rds of the urban polls.
02/06/04 Gregor Burton
Email: gregorburton@hotmail.com
Despite a close fight, I believe that Gary Anderson will prevail in this riding. He has individual popularity, and would represent an excellent voice for Agricultural issues in the GOVERNMENT. The NDP will not factor well into this equation, as they have problems attracting rural support. Disgraced former Alliance MP Larry Spencer has had his day, and has taken his opportunities to proove himself an ignorant bigot.
02/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
I see I have riled some peope up with my comments. *sigh* I can't figure out what else I have to say. This seat WILL go NDP. The polling, the response on the doorstep, the flood of vollunteers, the right-wing vote splitting, it's all here. With the exception of the two incumbent seats (and maybe even one of them) this is the safest NDP win people!
25/05/04 JCM
This will be a close race between former Premier Grant Devine and Conservative candidate Ed Komarnicki. Whether or not Devine can win will depend on how well organized he is. I'm sure Devine can call a lot of favours in this constituency, which encompasses much of his former provincial riding of Estevan. I think right now Souris-Moose Mountain is too close to call.
25/05/04 MDF+
Email: [hidden]
From today's Leader-Post:"[ex Tory MLA, Spencer aid and prominent Tory backroom guy Larry] Birkbeck challenged the notion that [incumbent ex CA MP Larry] Spencer's run will split votes and cause Conservative candidate Tom Lukiwski to lose. 'Tom Lukiwski is quite capable of losing on his own,' he said. 'He doesn't need Larry Spencer's help'."
25/05/04 JCM
I expect Moe will win in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre. Actually it will be quite easy for him. Moe is a decent man, and will make a good MP.
What is going to shock observers in this constituency, is that when the dust settles, it will be the Liberals who finish second in this constituency. Gary Anderson is quite strong in the rural 40% of this constituency. In fact, if I were to venture a guess, I would say the 4 Regina races are between the NDP and the Liberals.
25/05/04 Matthew
Email: [hidden]
With Larry Spencer, the incumbent, running as a "Conservative" independent he will draw away votes (at least 15%) from the Conservatives. This all but assures an NDP pick-up in what would otherwise be a close race.
25/05/04 J Davies
Email: [hidden]
Live in Davidson and NO ONE here is voting anything but conservative. Spoke to friends in Regina and they tell me that NDP support is limited to a few hard core communists. Seat will obviously go to the Conservatives.
25/05/04 Peter
Email: [hidden]
This is a two horse race. Even though the riding is a blend of urban and rural voters, the urban voters one might think are going to vote for the NDP candidate are not a lock.
Saskatchewan voters are not afraid to vote one way provinically and another federally.
Don't be surpirsed is this one comes down to a few hundred votes.
Mr. Lukewski will need to knock on every door in the riding to make it so, but the message he has may hit home with alot of poeple be there male or female, urban or rural, young or old.
I say it'll be a narrow Conservative win.
As for the Liberal candidate. A distant, dust-eating, third.
24/05/04 Frank Carter
Email: [hidden]
The NDP will come in third in this riding. Liberal candidate Gary Anderson is quickly stealing a lot of votes from the NDP. Anderson and the NDP will split the left and the Conservatives will get in. The NDP will also suffer from the Green Party.
24/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This is seat will always be too close to call. Look at the numbers. It is not simply because of me, but because this seat will come down to a few hundred votes, making it too close to call.
16/05/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com

Why is this seat still TCTC? The only person who has posted anything but a NDP win is travis and he is posting CPC victories all over the place. I am willing to place money on this one it is such a sure thing for the NDP. If every poll is correct and the NDP is going to win 18-25 seats then this one will absolutly, totaly, be one of those pickups.
30/04/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com

Was the provincial budget unpopular? Yes it was. However, this is largely a provincial issue that will not get a lot of play in the federal election. Will it have an impact? Yes, but not nearly as much as the NDP having doubled in the polls since 2000.
What you are saying is that even with the NDP at its best showing in decades, they will lose a seat that they carried throughout those decades? This just doesn't make any sense. The 2000 election was a Stockwell Day/Alliance blip that will not be repeated.
29/04/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This riding will go Conservative. It's nuts to say this is a NDP lock up, with the recent NDP budget, it could mean a bad showing for the NDP provincially.
28/04/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
Assume that Spencer gets 1% of the vote. As the incumbent this is resonable. Then assume that the NDP doesn't do any better then they did in 2000 (Stupid assumption) Then assume that the new conservative party gets 99% of the Alliance vote (The old conservatives didn't even run here last time) This STILL means that the NDP wins. That's IF the NDP gets no more votes than 2000. Come on, this one is an NDP lock people.
14/04/04 TM
Email: [hidden]
Oh, Nick! So much misinformation! Independent candidates very rarely win elections. Political parties and leaders are much more important than local candidates in most races. If Larry Spencer is foolish enough to run, he will lose by a huge margin. John Nunziata was a rare case of a very popular politician winning as an independent, and his win in 1997 was very close. There are many more cases of incumbent independents losing against their former party such as Jack Ramsey in Alberta(2000), Jag Bhaduria in Ontario(1997) or Pat Nowlan in Nova Scotia(1993)
11/04/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Nick if your polls are before the 2000 election than they make no difference, as those polls were before a bad Alliance showing in the East of Canada, and after Stockwell being basically forced to quit as leader. If you lived here in Saskatchewan you would know polls mean nothing, in 1999 polls showed landslide victory for the NDP and those polls were right before the election date, not months away, the NDP received a minority mandate, in 2003 election polls it showed a Sask party win, NDP re-gained government.
You say the PC could have 5% if they would have ran a candidate, now since you have said that the ones who would now support the CPC would have voted for the CA last election, I would say half of the PC members in the riding didn't vote for the CA, but either voted for the Lib or NDP or did not vote at all, so that would be about 723 votes which could now come the way of the Conservative party, also with the scandal and the Conservative party being in the media on a regular basis attacking the Liberals for this, some voters will not go to the Conservative party, say 100 voters, so a possible 823 new voters for the CPC, but lets say 234 just to be nice and low. Now as Spencer is running he will take votes away from the Conservative party, now it is a question of how many? I don't think he will be like Grant Schmidt and take 1660 votes, but lets say he does take around 2% of the vote directly from the Alliance results from last election, meaning he would get 249 votes, now leaving out the numbers from the PC that would give the NDP a win of the riding by 57 votes, not add the possible PC votes and the Conservative will win this one by a couple hundred.
08/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
is this prediction being kept as TCTC on travis' account?
his arguments are worthless. Let me debunk them one by one.
"Even though Larry Spencer made remarks which should not have been said, this riding will go Conservative, once again. The NDP have not made any real change in the polls, unlike the Conservative party who have made huge gains."
since the last election the NDP has moved up in the polls in SK, while the Conservatives are down from just the alliance number, WAY down from the combined number.
"We all know NDP numbers never stick as people say they are going to vote NDP, simply because they are angry with the Liberals, election day comes and they don't vote NDP. This one will go Conservative."
back this statement up with proof, if I wanted to spoof a poll, I'd say I was voting Conservative. As for the PC not running a candidate, that could account for perhaps 5% of the vote, not more, and that difference, as I outlined earlier, is more then made up for by the NDP's polling numbers.
"it is rare for a person running as a independent to make a major dent into his former parties numbers."
this statement is just plain wrong. when people run as IND's against their party, they do make major dents, in fact, most of the time, they win (nunziata for example)
Even if spencer had said nothing, and was running as the CPC incumbent, this riding would still go NDP. the numbers speak for themselvs. This riding was so close last time, even 20 votes could tip it this time, and if you are gonna try to tell me that mr.spencer wont get 20 votes, then you must be smoking something good.
02/04/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

As of 2 April, this seat is still listed as "too close to call". I can't fathom why. Even if Spencer *doesn't* run again, the NDP presence in this region should be strong enough to fend off whatever the Conservatives (and Liberals) have to offer. 2000 was a monumental fluke; it won't happen twice.
30/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Larry Spencer running as a independent will not have a major effect on the Conservative outcome, it is rare for a person running as a independent to make a major dent into his former parties numbers.
28/03/04 JT
With Larry Spencer running as an independent this one is pretty much given to the NDP on a silver platter.
27/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Jesse you ignore the fact many people didn't vote because there wasn't a PC candidate, so you truly have no clue on the numbers. We all know NDP numbers never stick as people say they are going to vote NDP, simply because they are angry with the Liberals, election day comes and they don't vote NDP. This one will go Conservative.
23/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: [hidden]
Uh, Travis, what matters is not what gains have been made in the past month, but what gains have been made since the last election! The NDP came within a hair of winning this seat when they were at 8,5% nationally, now theyre at 17-18%! In contrast the combined PC/Allaince vote was 37.5% nationally during the last election, and now the CPC is at about 26-27%. There is absolutely no way this seat is going to anyone but the NDP. Your dreaming if you think the CPC can hang on...
22/03/04 Craig
Easy NDP gain here, in fact it won't even be close. An extremely unpopular MP running as an independent will split the Conservative votes, the Liberals are going nowhere and the NDP are rising in the polls all add up to this seat turning orange once again. Predicted results: NDP 48%, Conservative 24%, IND-Spencer 13%, Liberal 13%, others 2%.
21/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Even though Larry Spencer made remarks which should not have been said, this riding will go Conservative, once again. The NDP have not made any real change in the polls, unlike the Conservative party who have made huge gains.
19/03/04 Gerry Kennedy
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
With the homophobic idiot having embarrased the riding and the NDP making gains, this should be an easy take.
19/03/04 Paul Jankowski
Email: [hidden]
2000 will turn out to be a blip for a riding that in one configuration or another has supported the NDP since 1968. Even with a relatively non-descript nominee, the NDP's basic strength here should carry it for them.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Mr. Spenser running as an independent candidate is only going to hurt the Conservatives. The Candian Alliance won by the narrowest of margins over the NDP incumbant in the 2000 election. With Larry splitting the right wing vote and the rising NDP popularity it will go back to the NDP. Might Mr. Spenser know this and expect this? A little pay back to the party that kicked him out...?
17/03/04 TH
Email: [hidden]
The NDP vote in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre held steady between 1997 and 2000. They only lost in 2000 because the Liberal vote collapsed and there was no PC candidate; in 1997 the NDP won by a large margin. In 2004, with Larry Spencer running as an independent and the NDP polling at traditional levels, this seat will return to the NDP; it doesn't matter who the candidate is.
17/03/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Spencer won in 2000 by a handfull of votes (and no PC candidate)... and this was when the CA won almost 50% across the province and the NDP in shock at the strong showing of the Sask Party in the provincial election.
Now the proverbial boot is on the other foot.
Since 2000 the NDP have surged across the Praries (as evidenced by the NDP's re-election in both provinces) and would be favoured to win Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre even if Spencer didn't split the right by running as an independent.
There is a certain amount of irony about the fact that one of the few ridings in Canada where there was a united right in 2000 will have 2 right-wingers running in 2004/5.
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
The NDP would likely win this seat even if Larry Spencer were not running as an independent. The fact that Spencer is only turns this likely NDP win into a definite one.
17/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: Jesse Hoffman
This is an obvious easy NDP pickup. IT doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that if Regina-Lumsden Lake Centre went Alliance over NDP by 150 votes in 2000, BUT since that time, NDP support has doubled, the CPC is crashing in Saskatchewan, and the Alliance MP who has disgraced himself is running as an independant to siphon off right-wing votes. NDP in a walk.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Spencer will tilt this in favour of the NDP, but even without Spancer, the NDP will have no trouble finding the 400 votes they need to win. Remember, the Tories are polling lower then the Alliance did in Saskatchewan, and the NDP is polling at three times the level they did last eleciton naitonally.
16/03/04 RWA
In a close race, Spencer's bid as an independent could make all the difference and put the NDP over the top.
Email: [hidden]
This could go any way if Larry Spencer runs as an independent splitting the right wing vote. The Conservatives might hold onto enough strength to win the seat, or the New Democrats or Liberals could pick it up. The Liberals have yet to select their candidate while the NDP's Maurice Kovatch doesn't have much claim to fame beyond being the old MP's neighbour. This will be a tossup, and an interesting riding to watch for sure.
10/03/04 Nairn Clark
With the NDP polling at its highest level since the eighties, this seat is very likely to return to the fold. The fact that Spencer is running as an Independent can only make that outcome likelier.
27/02/04 BAQ
NDP gain. This seat has elected NDP MPs solidly from 1968 until the last election. Even then the NDP only lost by a small margin. With growing NDP support nationally this seat is a likely to return to the NDP. The decision of disgraced CA MP Larry Spencer to run as an IND only helps the NDP's chances.

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