clr-Columbia River-Revelstoke

Election Prediction Project

Columbia River-Revelstoke
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
12:08 AM 30/04/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:11 PM 30/03/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

NDP
Norm Macdonald

BC Liberal
Wendy McMahon

Green Party
Andy Shadrack

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
McMAHON, Hon. Wendy

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 34060

Dev. from Quota: -27.76%

Area (km2): 39902

Pop Density: 0.85

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

53.95%

31.46%

6.76%

3.39%

1996 Result (redistributed):

41.93%

34.96%

18.87%

2.00%

1.86%

Surrounding Ridings:
East Kootenay
Kamloops-North Thompson
Nelson-Creston
Okanagan-Vernon
Prince George-Mount Robson
Shuswap


	27 04 05	Initial
In the interests of full disclosure, I don't live in this riding, BUT I was politically active in it from the time that I was 13 til I was about 25. I know the riding well, and I think I know the people well (considering that on occasion I feel like I'm related to half of them). People in Columbia Valley-Revelstoke seem to have a split personality when it comes to Federal and Provincial politics. It may be because of the distance to Ottawa, but the candidate plays very little role in the decision of constituents when voting federally. The party and its platform are paramount. The reverse is true on the provincial level. Personality is the most important factor in choosing an MLA, and Wendy McMahon is well-respected up and down the Columbia Valley. Further, the people of this riding LOVE having a cabinet minister as their representative in Victoria. Having witnessed James Chabot "deliver the goods" as the Columbia River MLA and Minister of Everything for a number of years, the residents of this constituency are prepared for more of the same with Ms. McMahon's recent appointment (albeit as Secretary of State for Seniors and Women's Issues). Appointing Wendy McMahon to cabinet was the smartest move that Gordon Campbell could have made to cement his position in this riding; most people will choose to vote for the Liberals because the Liberal candidate is a current cabinet member.
	11 04 05	A. Vancouverite
While it's true that this riding has largely sided with the government; however, one should remember that W.A.C. Bennett and his son where from the Interior -- whereas Campbell is not. Don't forgot the fact, that the Interior consistently rewarded the Bennett's for most of their career because of the attention they paid to the entire region. Gordon Campbell's "heartland" strategy is seen as a poor substitute compared to those former Premiers ability too connect with people in the Interior. Therefore I think its very likely this riding will go to the NDP, regardless of whether or not they win the election.
	08 04 05	SNL Fan
Norm MacDonald was funny on Saturday Night Live, but after being fired from the show, his career really fell off the track. I believe that his political career will go the way of his TV shows and be cancelled quickly.
	01 04 05
This seat has voted WITH the Government in every election I can recall, back to the 1940's. James is going to have reach over the Island and in parts of the lower mainland...but that reach is NOT going to extend far beyond the mainland coast. With its (albeit low profile) sitting cabinet minister, this seat will be going BC Liberal...no two ways about it.
	02 04 05	Crystal Ball
As a previous poster noted, this riding has mainly Socred representation over the years. There have been some contentious issues for local MLA Wendy McMahon since 2001, but there have been major successes too. The economy is booming here - particularly in Golden, where the NDP candidate hails from. The biggest highway project in Canada is taking place near Golden as well. McMahon has been elevated to cabinet. And the growth taking place will benefit Libs over NDP. It will be close, but there is no right wing vote split this time. In 1996, McMahon's husband lost due to the split. This time, Mrs. McMahon will consolidate the vote and likely win.
	26 03 05	BLJ
Columbia (Columbia River) (Columbia-River Revelstoke), with its various redistributions, was held by the Socreds from 1952 until 1991. The NDP was quite competitive from 1979 onward losing with 45% in 1986 and winning by the same margin in 1991, again holding the seat in 1996 with a 42% margin. That said, this seat likely represents the NDP's third best opportunity in the southern interior.
	12 03 05	A. Vancouverite
The NDP are shown to be consistently ahead in the interior, and unlike areas such as the Okanagan Valley, or Peace this is defenetly not a Liberal stronghold. The area has been hit hard by Liberal cuts, and the 1996 Reform Vote was largely a protest vote -- that wasn't comfortable enough with Campbell's Liberals to vote Liberal, and wasn't going to vote NDP because they where the incumbent goverment. Considering the fact that the NDP has to get some interior seats due to their competitive pollings results and the concentrated Liberal vote (usually the NDP are shown ahead of the Liberals in the interior), it would be prudent to predict this as an NDP pick up.
	04 03 05	TAN
Until the 1996 meltdown, Jim Doyle had a solid hold on this riding. NDP cand. Norm Macdonald is effectively Doyle Mark II -- also a popular Mayor of Golden, sharing the same organizers and political machine, and even nominated by Doyle himself. CR-R, most remote riding in the southern interior, was hit heavily by Liberal regionalization policy in health and so on. Add the fiercely-unpopular Jumbo Resort issue into the mix, and you see conditions for an NDP rout.
	24 02 05	M. Lunn
Although this is generally a conservative area, they have been especially hard hit by the cuts therefore I think that will be enough to put the NDP over the top. Also this was historically a swing riding federally prior to 1993 and still remains one provincially so the strong showing by the Conservatives last federal election doesn't imply it will automatically go liberal provincially. The Liberals probably have a better chance of winning the East Kootenay.
	25 02 05	M. Lunn
With this being one of the weaker liberal ridings in the interior and one that has been hard hit by the cuts, I really cannot see them holding this one. Even though this area may have gone for the Reform/Alliance/Conservative party in large numbers federally, that had more to do with the Reform's populist appeal and people have since chosen to stick with Jim Abbott. Prior to 1993, this was a swing riding federally and provincially it has gone NDP more often than Social Credit, not mention both WAC Bennett and Bill Bennett were from the Interior, so their support was higher than Gordon Campbell. Even though the liberals are re-bounding in the interior, which will make this riding more competitive, I still cannot see them pulling it off.

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