Election Prediction Project

Prince George-Mount Robson
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise ŕ jour:
6:37 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:37 PM 15/05/2005

Constituency Profile

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BC Liberal
Shirley Bond
Matthew James Burnett
Wayne Mills
Paul Robert Nettleton
Green Party
Don Roberts

BC Liberals:
BOND, Hon. Shirley
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:-18.17%
Area (km2):28496
Pop Density:1.35

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Cariboo North
Columbia River-Revelstoke
Kamloops-North Thompson
Peace River South
Prince George-Mount Robson
Prince George-Mount Robson

22 04 05 JC
Mills is going to win this, Shirley Bond might really get NDP Voters angry enough to send them all to the polls, Paul Nettleton might have a huge impact on this riding and may suck up disenfranchised liberal voters.
16 04 05 BLJ
I don't think that Paul Nettleton will be much of a factor parachuting in from another riding to run as an independent - I also believe that the Greens and DRBC will likely outpoll his result.
With no right wing Unity candidate as in 2001 (more likely to draw votes from Liberals), another Green candidate (more likely to draw votes from NDP), and if DRBC runs likely to draw equally from both major parties similar to the PDA.
As for BC Rail's integration with CN, I understand that it has the support from northern interior mayors - even former NDP premier Dan Miller supports the transaction.
Shirley Bond will probably get a boost of a few points from the incumbancy factor and, as such, unless there is a shift in public opinion come election day, this riding will probably remain a Liberal hold, albeit likely a closer result than the other 2 PG ridings.
08 04 05 A. Vancouverite
Hard to say where this will go, I'll give the NDP a slight edge for now, but I'm not prepared to call it until the election gets going for a while. One would think this riding is the one most likely to be won by the NDP, but that doesn't mean it will be. While it's true that this is the Deputy Premier's riding, she's nowhere near as strong a DP as Christy Clark was. Frankly people were surprised that Bond was appointed DP and Health Minister, and it was largely seen as a political manoeuvre on Campbell's part to shore up his support amongst women since Judith Reid and Christy Clark, the two strongest female ministers in his government, weren't running for re-election, therefore female representation in cabinet was sparse. Many people were surprised at the choice considering the fact that Advanced Education is nowhere near as big a portfolio as Health and questioned how she'd be able to cope, nonetheless Campbell didn't have too much to choose from.
BC Rail privatization will be a big issue here, the Liberals automatically have the disadvantage on it because they broke their promise. However leading back to Bond's status, that will mean the Liberals will throw a lot of their Northern resources into getting her re-elected (think of her as Gordon Campbell's Anne McClellan) and that may be enough to re-elect her regardless of that issue. Paul Nettleton should be an interesting factor and get around 5-15%. While he may draw from the anti-government voters, that won't be a bad thing for the NDP if some of those the anti-government voters wouldn't consider voting for the NDP anyways. So while I think the NDP has a slight advantage, for some of the reasons I've highlighted in my prediction for Prince George North, I wouldn't call it for any of the parties until closer to election day.
30 03 05 Mike Mulroney
Incumbent from the neighboring Omenica riding obviously realized he couldn’t win in his old riding. He is taking a shot at the Deputy Premier because she’s running in what he sees as the weakest riding for the Liberals in Prince George, which went NDP in 1996 because of Reform vote-splitting. He has no support to build on in this riding, and will not win much support from people who favor the BC Liberals. He will probably just split anti BC Liberal vote to send Bond back to Victoria. His votes will come from Bond’s overwhelming 2001 plurality which would otherwise go NDP. Consider that Bond is deputy premier, look at past results, and this riding clearly leans Liberal.
28 03 05 Pundit
Shirley Bond will win with a smaller margin that last time, but she should have a reasonably easy time of it. Paul Nettleton will be lucky to beat either Green or DRBC - what a godsend to the Liberals that he chose to leave caucus and then did nothing at all.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
I cannot see Paul Nettleton winning this riding. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if we see two incumbents be defeated, which I have never heard of ever happening, although it may happen this time. This riding certainly is the most left-leaning of the three Prince George ridings, while Prince George-Omineca is the most right-leaning, so it will depend on who Paul Nettleton steals most of his votes from. If he mostly takes away votes from the NDP, than Shirley Bond will be re-elected, while if he is a non-factor or takes them away from the Liberals, the NDP will win.
03 03 05 JC
This is going to be an NDP win, Polls from the Prince George area says the libs are in huge trouble in this area, The fact that Paul Nettleton is running against Shirley Bond Is Going Hurt Her, a vote split will happen and that will allow Wayne Mills To Win This Seat.
24-Feb-05 Scott G.
This could be a three-way race. Shirley Bond is health minister and deputy premier, the highest-profile Liberal in northern BC, so the Liberals will put a lot of resources into holding onto this riding. But she faces Paul Nettleton, who left the Liberal caucus and became one of the party's most outspoken critics. If enough people take Nettleton seriously, the NDP could benefit from a right-wing split here. And if the provincial Liberal campaign doesn't go smoothly, Nettleton could win as an independent.

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