Election Prediction Project

Kamloops-North Thompson
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:16 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:29 PM 14/05/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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BC Conservative
R.H. (Bob) Altenhofen
Green Party
Grant Fraser
NDP
Mike Hanson
BC Liberal
Kevin Krueger
Marijuana
Keenan Todd

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
KRUEGER, Kevin
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:47730
Dev. from Quota:1.24%
Area (km2):22390
Pop Density:2.13

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

58.04%
19.14%
14.29%
3.83%

1996 Result (redistributed):

40.38%
41.86%
11.09%
1.18%
2.00%

Surrounding Ridings:
Cariboo North
Cariboo South
Columbia River-Revelstoke
Kamloops
Prince George-Mount Robson
Shuswap



14 05 05 M. Lunn
This is too close to call. Two separate polls show Kevin Krueger at 45% while Mike Hanson at 44%, so with that close a margin, it could really go either way. This riding like Kamloops and Shuswap leans towards the liberals, but the polls show Kevin Krueger is not well liked, even though I don't think he is that bad an MLA.
14 05 05 Bozard
NDP for sure. Mike's an excellent candidate who's running a great campaign and getting great press. Moreover, Kevin Krueger is personally very unpopular, as has been mentioned. Even faithful Liberal voters groan about having to vote for this bubblehead. Also, the two Kamloops ridings won't be so quick to forget the near-privatization of the Coquihalla, opposed by over 90% of the voters here. Anti-Campbell signs are a frequent sight, and polls are showing the NDP ahead of the Liberals in the Interior. Krueger's number is up.
07 05 05 BLJ
A Mustel Group poll commissioned by the Kamloops Daily News/CFJC TV had the following results for Kamloops-North Thompson: Liberal - 45.6%, NDP - 44.2%, Green 8.7% (313 sample size with 5.7% margin of error). Neighbouring Kamloops had Liberal - 49.1%, NDP - 41.2%, Green - 7.9% (314 sample size with 5.7% margin of error). Poll conducted May 2 - 3.
06 05 05 doug
Read the local tv station poll at http://www.cfjctv.com/ . this one's too close to call .... not a Liberal hold. Yet the sister riding Kamloops is a Liberal hold in the poll.
05 05 05 Realist
I honestly don't see Kevin Krueger will getting re-elected. Not after his rude and sexiest comments like calling Elayne Brenzinger "High Maintenance" and he didn't exactly get warm responses when he was defending the Government's privatization schemes at Town Hall meetings.
Mike Hanson of the NDP is fresh and exciting, while Krueger just has become tired and real annoying. I say that Hanson will carry this riding by a good 15 to 20 points.
08 04 05 BLJ
The NDP gained this seat in 1991 with 39% of the vote, around 2% less than their overall provincial popular vote. In 1996 they lost the seat with 40% of the vote, roughly the same percentage as their overall provincial vote. In 2001 the Liberals held the seat with roughly the same percentage as their overall provincial vote.
At the present time polls show the Liberals with around 46% of the overall provincial vote and the NDP with around 39%. If these numbers hold, I would suspect that the final outcome will also be in this range.
In the neighbouring riding of Kamloops, the NDP did between 3% - 5% better than the overall provincial result in both 1991 and 1996 respectively, while in 2001 the result almost mirrored the overall provincial result.
It might also be of interest to note that the recent federal result in Kamloops-Thompson was NDP 26%, CPC 40%, and Liberal 28%, which almost mirrored the overall provincial federal result with the incumbancy factor appearing to provide a slight boost of 3% - 4% to the CPC.
30 03 05 PJ
Part of a traditional bellwether, this riding bucked the provincial trend in 1996 by electing BC Liberal Kevin Krueger. It will be close, but I would give him the edge.
22 03 05 M. Lunn
I don't think Kevin Krueger is that bad of an MLA, but even if he is a bad one, that doesn't necessarily mean he will lose his seat. Randy White is after all a terrible MP yet he still won his riding in the last federal election so bad MPs/MLAs do sometimes win. This area has traditionally gone Social Credit, not NDP so a lot will depend on whether third parties like the Green Party or Democratic Reform have a strong showing and who they draw their votes from. The NDP traditionally gets around 40% in this riding, which is what I expect them to get. As long as the Green Party and DRBC still in the single digits, Kevin Krueger should survive although but a much smaller margin that last time around.
20 03 05 Bob Cline
This is a weird one for the Liberals. Fog horn leg horn (Kreuger) is a liability to the Libs. If they win, they keep the seat, but they also have to keep him. His loud mouth costs more than it earns. However, if they lose, it's one of those seats that could tip the balance for the NDP to form a government. They both will fight to the bitter end and voters will will be highly polarized. I suspect the Greens and DRBC will combine for less than 10% of the vote. I also suspect the result won't be known on this one on election night. I hope the Liberals and the NDP keep lawyers in town. They're going to need them for the recount.
14 03 05 JRFD
Mark my words... Kevin Krueger is going down. You can't just look at past elections here, you have to look at the candidates. Krueger is extremely unpopular and the NDP have an excellent candidate.
07 03 05 Manou Morrison
Three things lead me to believe that the NDP has a strong shot at picking up this district.
First, the Liberal incumbent, Kevin Krueger, is personally very unpopular. He's going to have very low levels of support from Kamloops, and will, thus, have to rely on support from the North Thompson side.
Second, he'll have a tough go there against Mike Hansen. Hansen is a good candidate - he's maximized his profile in the local media and community, he strikes the right balance between ambitious and approachable, he apparently has a fairly extensive base of support in both Kamloops and Barriere, and more than this, he's got a good story: "Barriere kid becomes Kamloops reporter, successful businessman, and then MLA." People in this district can get on board, and he's good enough to know that and to work it effectively. Worse for Krueger, though he's relying on support in North Thompson, he's not very popular in up there either.
Finally, this may be the provincial electoral district in which Gordon Campbell is most personally unpopular. Folks in this area just seem really to dislike him.
Given that people in this area tend to vote against people rather than for them, and given that Hansen does offer them an (apparently) compelling alternative to Krueger, I believe that this will go to the NDP this time around. Krueger will pull pretty close, but with an effective campaign, Hansen will definitely win.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
A swing riding, although I wouldn't be surprised if we see the reverse happen of 1996, whereby Kamloops goes liberal, while Kamloops-North Thompson goes NDP. The reason for this is smaller towns like Clearwater, Blue River are more conservative than Kamloops, but have also been more hard hit by the cuts therefore more likely to go liberal in 1996 than Kamloops, but more likely to go NDP in 2005 than Kamloops.
27 02 05 Matt N
This is liberal country - another easy win here for Gordo and the boys. NDP are just not a factor in this part of "the heartland."
28 02 05 Nick Boragina
The BC Liberals should take this riding. In 96, with the Reform vote, they'd have had 50%+1 of the vote. Beyond that, this is a historic Social Credit area, and as the modern successors to Social Credit, the Liberals will win.


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