nel-Nelson-Creston

Election Prediction Project

Nelson-Creston
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
1:15 AM 11/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:28 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Green Party
Luke Crawford

NDP
Corky Evans

Marijuana
Philip McMillan

BC Liberal
Blair F. Suffredine

The Bloc BC
Brian Taylor

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
SUFFREDINE, Blair

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 45100

Dev. from Quota: -4.34%

Area (km2): 22878

Pop Density: 1.97

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

39.01%

31.82%

21.53%

5.05%

1996 Result (redistributed):

44.35%

31.69%

10.95%

0.39%

10.58%

Surrounding Ridings:
Columbia River-Revelstoke
East Kootenay
Okanagan-Vernon
West Kootenay-Boundary


	10 05 05	TAN
I'm curious as to the statement that the "north" will carry Blair S. to victory. Unless there's some new rule I haven't heard of that says people in Nakusp get four ballots each, it isn't going to matter a whole lot, seing as the north end of this riding comprises less than a quarter of the electorate. Corky is capital-S Safe.
	07 05 05	Jeff
The Northern half of this riding will carry the liberals. As far as we are concerned up here there is only one party to vote for.
	05 05 05	Adam
This riding will go Liberal. Suffredine is a strong candidate and has shown to stand up for the people of his riding even if it goes against his own party. The recent Liberal budget will do a lot of good for the people in this area. I think the liberal vote will increase now that the people know what an effective MLA Suffredine is. I also think the Green vote will pick up but this will not effect the liberals win.
	04 05 05	Concerned Voter
Just as there are many NDPers and Liberals alike who do not deserve to sit in the legislature, there are those who do. Corky Evans, who would make a far better leader than Carole James, is very popular in this riding. Voters angry at Liberal cuts will have no trouble cozying up to Corky.
	15 04 05	EW
Corky won't win even though he's a cool guy. Younger voters are flocking to the Green Party and will likely split the vote leading to another Liberal victory for the riding.... unless the Greens really become a contender
	31 03 05	Pundit
Even hard core right wing red necks like Corky. Yeah, there are people on the right that hate him and so do many Greens, but there are few politicians that are as skilled as this man. I hope Gordon Campbell wakes up each morning thanks God that the NDP were too stupid to draft Corky as leader. Carole James problem is going to be that Corky will get all the media and she will be irrelevant and ignored.
	28 03 05	A. Vancouverite
Part of this riding is in the federal riding of Southern Interior. The federal NDP candidate got over 35%, finishing a close second to the Incumbent Jim Gouk. The provincial NDP usually gets around 10 to 15% more than the federal NDP, it never gets under what the federal NDP gets so it's pretty easy to draw the conclusion that the NDP will win this riding, barring a melt-down. The fact that Colleen McCrory isn't running for the Greens again, and that Blair Sufferdine isn't popular are large bonuses for Corky Evans. The only people who really don't like Corky Evans are partisan Greens and Liberals, and they've already decided who they're voting for.
	28 03 05	M. Lunn
Unfortunately Dorky Evans will probably being going back to Victoria. The only way the liberals can hold this riding is if there is a three way split between the NDP, Green party, and Democratic Reform, which is possible since parties with populist appeals such as the Reform Party federally tend to do well in the Interior regardless of their ideological position. The Liberals will only get around 30%, so they need a three way split to win this, which is possible since the Green Party is strong amongst the former hippies and draft dodgers in Nelson, while the Democratic Reform might pick up some of the former Reform Party supporters federally who voted NDP provincially in the past.
	25 03 05	IGB
Corky, Corky, Corky. Will he ever stop running? Two wins, two defeats, and he's back for it again. The man has determination, to say the least. Seriously though, what we have in Nelson-Creston is a race between two strong candidates: Corky as a former cabinet minister, popular MLA and genuine maverick, a quality people seem to appreciate; Blair Suffredine as an MLA that hasn't always followed the Campbell line and voted against legislation that he said he couldn't support and that his constituents wouldn't like, a trait that's definitely admirable in a politician. This is a tough race to predict: I say that it's going to be one of the closer races on election night.
	22 03 05	Cornpop
Yet another NDP seat in 2005. Corky has something that very few former NDP'ers have... a fresh smell. Corky is one of the few NDP'ers that has escaped the "taint of Clark" as it were. Furthermore, the NDP is par with the Libs outside of the Lower Mainland, which further suggests this is one of the places where the Libs go down in flames. Add that to the point that we have a low-profile incumbent going up against a high-profile former representative, and it seems clearer that Corky will ride the ferry back to work.
	28 02 05	F. R.
People in the area are not quite ready to forgive the NDP yet, esp one of their main henchmen from the 90's. Corky seems to be a lot more popular to people from outside of the riding than those inside where his popularity is very polarized between love and hate. The BC Liberals can easily keep this riding. Suffredine's popularity in the 2001 strongholds of Creston, Kaslo, Nacusp is still there. On top of that the major deciding factor will be the vote spliting, if the Green Party stays above the 15% mark the Liberals will in this riding. This statement is especially true if there is no Unity party this time around, The Liberals gaining that extra 5% from Unity should easily finish first.
	24-Feb-05	Scott G.
There's no questioning Evans' folksy appeal. But he's run for the NDP in every election since 1986 - when are people going to start to get tired of him? As an NDP cabinet minister in 2001, he couldn't run on his outsider image anymore, and he lost one of the few ridings the NDP was expected to win. The Greens have been a major factor in the last few elections, although they may be less so this time with a Liberal government. The other consideration is Suffredine. He hasn't just been a Gordon Campbell clone, and has voted against government bills that he said he couldn't support in good conscience. In other words, can Suffredine come across as a more authentic outsider than Evans?
	22-Feb-05	MisterK
Like 2001, another three-way race. This time however Corky Evans should emerge victorious, but it won't likely be a rout.
	23-Feb-05	Laurence Putnam
Weak, weak BC Lib win in '01 and Corky is back. That is a coup for the NDP. Corky may be a bit weird...but the folks in Nelson-Creston love him enough to bring him back one more time. The Libs have a shot at painting Corky as a has-been and of course there's always hope for another Green-NDP split in this riding, but the smart money remains on Evans.
	23-Feb-05	Dagmar
Corky Evans is one of the best NDP MLAs that there ever was. Even if the NDP won only 10 seats, this would be one of them. Corky is smart, approachable, and tells it like it is. If he would have been leader going in to the last election, the NDP would never have lost this seat to begin with.
	23-Feb-05	M. Lunn
This is solid NDP territory. In fact I would not be surprised if the Green Party finishes ahead of the Liberals. If you look at the last federal election, the Conservatives only narrowly won this riding and most of that support came from the Western portion in the riding of Penticton-Okanagan Valley, which the Liberals will likely hold. Almost all the polls in the Nelson-Creston area went NDP federally, so it should definitely go NDP provincially. Add to the fact Blair Suffredine only got 38% in 1996 and with the liberal decline especially in the heartlands, he will be lucky if he can break 30%. Corky Evans was a very popular MLA and only lost because he was part of an unpopular government
	22-Feb-05	P. Kelly Email:
Corky Evans will be coming back to Victoria as MLA. Nelson-Creston is as upset as all other 'heartlands' areas of BC that saw courtroom closures, school and hospital closures. The only question left to wonder is if the Liberals will finish 2nd, or 3rd - behind the green party.

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