Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
8:27 AM 08/03/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:01 PM 26/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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BC Liberal
George Abbott
Chris Emery
B.C. Patriot
Andrew Nicholas Hokhold
BC Conservative
Beryl Ludwig
The Bloc BC
Paddy Roberts
Green Party
Barbara Westerman
Calvin Ross White

BC Liberals:
ABBOTT, Hon. George
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:2.64%
Area (km2):8097
Pop Density:5.98

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Columbia River-Revelstoke

15 05 05
Great web site.
The Shuswap riding appears to the authors to be a slam dunk for the Liberals . I wonder if it is that clear cut. George Abbott has worked hard for decades .
Calvin White really is experienced having run federally. The tone of the campaign has been feisty plus between these two.
Shannon O'Neil held the riding for the NDP not so long ago so I think there is a little more upside for Calvin White NDP than is granted in the comments.Barb Westerman is a good candidate with previous experience
running in the electoral districts. The Green Party should do better than previously. One of the aspects to the two North Okanagan Shuswap ridings(Vernon and Salmon Arm ) that interests me is that the BC Conservative Party has two good candidates in Colin Black in Vernon and Beryl Ludwig
in Shuswap.The Unity Party is 2001 in Vernon got as hig a percentage of vote as any other Unity member in ALL of BC - those votes likely mean Tom Christensen and NDP candidate Juliette Cunningham will increase their percentages because there isn't a Unity candidate but there are two good conservative candidates . Will they have any significant impact , while unlikely in a first run they have both campaigned hard , I watch their totals with interest . Beryl Ludwig received some press regards endorsations by area Mayors of George Abbott.Don't know how that plays out. I think Calvin White will do much better than the prediction group suggests but George Abbott's work for the region should retain it narrowly.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
Although not as safe for the liberals as the Okanagan Valley ridings, I would say it is probably the safest interior seat outside of the Okanagan Valley and Peace River country. There is a fairly large senior and wealthy population who will likely go liberals. The NDP only got 31% in 1996 and considering the Reform Party is no longer a factor, I suspect the liberals will take this one. The NDP will likely get more than 31% that they got in 1996, but the liberals will also get more than 34%. I am guessing the NDP will get between 40-45% while the liberals between 45-50%. This riding did after all elect Darrel Stinson federally who is about as right wing as you can get, so if they are willing to elect a redneck like Darrel Stinson, I cannot see why they wouldn't support someone more moderate like George Abbott.
24 02 05 BLJ
This seat was held by the Liberals in 1996, even with a strong Reform vote in excess of 20%. It is likley to again remain in Liberal hands.

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