Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:22

Constituency Profile


Everaert, Brian

Gladu, Marilyn

Kilner, Adam

Laird, Thomas

Lemieux, Carmen

Smith, Peter Robert


Marilyn Gladu

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1477.68 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marilyn Gladu 2256538.80%
Jason Wayne McMichael 1810231.10%
Dave McPhail 1585327.30%
Peter Smith 16052.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5141.03%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Bob Bailey * 2681152.75%
Kathy Alexander 1899537.37%
Neil Wereley 22464.42%
Kevin Shaw 18563.65%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3400.74%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Surprised that the NDP have placed 2nd here the past few elections. I still think the CPC win tomorrow night but the NDP will be their toughest competition.
17/10/19 Observer
A rising NDP with a great campaign a dreadful Liberal campaign and the PPC eating Gladu’s lunch this will be one of a few surprises on election night.
16/10/19 Barlingwood
I was debating with myself to put the NDP symbol there to get attention Or not but I see this as tctc now and could be one of the big surprises on election night. With the NDP fortunes rising and the possibility of liberal vote crashing to them as the obvious challenger to the Tories here this could be one of the big shocker surprise NDP victories of the night. You heard it here first!
09/10/19 R.O.
Marilyn Gladu is somewhat of a rookie mp first elected in 2015 but increased her presence in Ottawa since then. Strong ndp presence in the riding but hasn’t ever been an ndp riding federally and mostly been conservative in recent years , provincially and federally.
17/09/19 Dr. Bear
I really am curious to see where that 2015 NDP vote goes this time. If the Liberals play their cards right, this could be interesting and a surprise outcome. I don't think they will and a CPC hold is most likely. I'm just not ready to make that definitive call just yet.
18/08/20 A.S.
I can't say 2015's low-ish winning share for Gladu was a surprise; against the broader 2015 tableau, what was more of a surprise was the NDP actually hanging on to a strong 2nd place. And unfortunately, many of those S Sarnia working-class NDP stronghold polls wound up swinging quite hard in a provincial Ford direction in '18. Notwithstanding the evangelical base, there's something that's never rung completely true about how deeply and enduringly Con support has entrenched itself in Sarnia since the mid-noughts--then again, one can make that counter-argument re how Sarnia came to be so NDP-targeted over that same time frame. And perhaps taking advantage of the perceived Jagmeet slump, it seems like the Libs seem to have *some* kind of early-nominating act together for a change (provincially, it was their only sub-5% riding in 2018!). Perhaps, too, that 'Ford populism' element could wind up defaulting to PPC populism, at least extrapolating from how the Trillium Party conducted some of its most 'visible' campaigns hereabouts in 2018 (and a neighbouring Trillium candidate is now PPC's local standard-bearer)
26/07/19 seasaw
Let's not jump to quick conclusions, yes the CPC did manage to hold on to the riding in 2015, a bad election for them and a Red wave going through the country. But this was a bellwether riding from 1968-2011. The Liberals did finish third the last time, but the last time NDP did well by their standards. This year NDP is near record low and if the Liberals pick up 40% of their votes, coupled with PPC taking support away from CPC, this will be a Liberal win. TCTC for now.
25/07/19 Laurence Putnam
It may look vulnerable to other parties, but ought to be fairly solid. It's natural leaning is Conservative and in a rebounding year as the NDP struggles; it's hard to imagine the Liberals shooing up past 40% here if they placed third last time. Sarnia-Lambton mayl never vote decisively for one candidate over the other, but provincially and federally since the right was united this has remained fairly consistently Conservative.
27/02/19 Craig
Should be safe for the Conservatives. The NDP will likely not do nearly as well with Singh as leader here (rightly or wrongly) plus they have probably hit a ceiling as we saw last year provincially. As for the Liberals, they should be irrelevant especially with the SNC-Lavalin saga bringing back memories of their past governments (federal and provincial). This used to be a bellwether, but as we have seen the world over, blue-collar seats have made a rightward turn, and if immigration becomes an issue, that would likely resonate for the Conservatives here too.
26/02/19 Sam
This industrial riding had a surprising low vote share for the Conservatives last time round; it was one of their lowest winning vote shares nationwide. Despite this, they took a majority of the votes provincially and now have a prominent incumbent. Even though they were closer than elsewhere no other major party will have this on their top-tier targets as it's simply less viable. It leans Conservative for now.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster