Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-02 23:41:00

Constituency Profile










   Robert Bailey

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):106293

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

8152 17.86%
18722 41.01%
16327 35.77%
2109 4.62%
OTHERS 340 0.74%
Total Transposed 45650

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed45650

Federal Election Result (2015):

Marilyn Gladu
Jason Wayne McMichael
Dave McPhail
Peter Smith


29/05/2018 Kingpin Win
NDP was within a few points of PCs in previous elections (Federal and Provincial). Today they are 15-20 points ahead of those positions and the SW in particualr is turning strongly towards NDP. Like Sault Ste. Marie, this is a riding which may not fully follow provincial trends (so PCs have a good shot), but the Liberal brand is toxic in SW ON (slightly better in the North) and Liberal voters are more likely to switch the NDP in Sarnia than they would in the North. Therefore, The NDP are clear favourites. LISPOP and Global both agree.
29/05/2018 MF
Mainstreet has the PCs with a comfortable lead in Sarnia-Lambton. So while it may seem like low hanging fruit for the NDP on paper, it seems their rising SW Ontario numbers are more concentrated in London and K-W where they're driving out the Liberal vote. They may not defeat any PC MPPs in SW Ontario at all. Furthermore Ford's populism plays better in working class ridings like this than Hudak's orthodox austerity platform did.
26/05/2018 Cal
Out on the doorstep for NDP today in the heart of Bailey territory and was shocked at the distaste for Ford and how much support there was for Andrea Horwath. I think this is part of the wave.
26/05/2018 Rem-18
I truly think that this riding will be able to go NDP for the first time since 1990. The support in this area is relatively strong and with the amount of uncertainty that is built up with Doug Ford's PCs, it seems to me that this riding has a strong chance for an NDP MPP. From what I've seen, there are Kathy Alexander signs lining the block and though there are lots of PC signs as well, the amount of normally Liberal voters here who are Anti-Doug here will swing it in favour of Kathy. Plus, the new LISPOP and Global News projections only come to solidify my justification.
23/05/2018 Christopher L
Like CKL, this is an interesting two-way race in a mostly urban industrial riding. It's not going to be easy, but I think the NDP might be able to squeak in if they can pull in the vast majority of disaffected/strategically voting Liberals. Probably both PCs and NDP will be up in the mid 40s, but I think the NDP narrowly take it.
Local polls show the NDP leading and LISPOP have declared it will go NDP today
18/05/2018 C. H.
Definitely not a safe PC seat. As others have said, the NDP only lost by 2500 last time and is now modestly leading in SWO with plenty of momentum province-wide, and Sarnia is trending towards being more New Democratic relative to the province over time. This one should go orange.
18/05/2018 Brian J
I can fairly confidently say that Sarnia-Lambton should be moved to the NDP at this point; at the very least, back to TCTC. Perhaps the rural portion of Lambton County are friendly to the PC's, but Sarnia itself and much of the surrounding are full of Kathy Alexander signs. I drove through there a week ago and even some of the big farmsteads on the outskirts of Sarnia have orange signs. This, plus the SW Ontario numbers are strongly NDP and going even higher.
18/05/2018 Dr. Bear
Yeah...I'm also on the TCTC bandwagon. My earlier prediction suggested that TCTC would be correct if the NDP start eroding PC support in the SW cities: it looks like they have.
17/05/2018 KXS
Not sure why this has been called for the PCs. The conditions are ripe for an NDP win.
Polls are showing the NDP is ahead of the PCs in Southwestern Ontario. Horwath has spent time in Sarnia before and after the writ drop. This was a close race in 2014.
Even the Mulcair's NDP improved their fortunes in this riding, as their support collapsed province-wide.
5/16/2018 Call me Cal
Too quick to call this one. NDP vote is solid here. They lost by 2500 last time.
15/04/2018 A.S.
Sooner or later, these NDP bids for Sarnia have got to amount to something--2014 was an overachievement considering 2011's result, and even 2015 federally was 'overperformance' considering the climate. Now, it's the presumption of a PC government-in-waiting and yet another dissenting bid by Andy Bruziewicz (this time under the Trillium banner) that stand as obstacles. And it's a matter of crossing one's fingers and hoping that polls showing the NDP a strong second in SW Ontario result in some steals from *Conservatives*, never mind Liberals. And as far as Fordian populism goes: it's likelier to undercut Liberal-parked GTA votes than NDP-planted SW Ontario votes--though admittedly, that might be rating things on the grade...
22/03/2018 in the know
I think we should keep an eye here. Bob clearly has support across the riding and has been running for reelection since the last election and this is seen as his last campaign. The NDP have a nomination fight and there is a clear choice. If they pick long time candidate and party insider Hill it's a PC win running away no need to even campaign. However if the woman from the hospital wins she might just pull off an upset. Also watch the Trillium party he's a sitting city Councillor who was humiliated as an independent candidate he may take a few PC votes not as many as if Brown has stayed but a few. If the NDP get some wind in their sails they will look here for a win.
19/03/2018 jeff316
The question is this: is Sarnia one of the few ridings where the NDP is so strong and the Liberals so weak that presence of Doug Ford turns off just enough non-Fordian voters that the NDP actually squeaks it? I wouldn't bet my house on it but I wouldn't hesitate to bet my lunch.
12/03/2018 Stephen B
Tory for sure. Ford was way ahead of Elliott among leadership voters here, and it's the type of riding he'll do well in- perhaps even steal some votes from the NDP.
11/03/2018 Craig
With Doug Ford as leader, what I previously said is no longer true. This is now safely blue.
Having a populist leader should easily keep this seat in PC hands, likely in a landslide, as the NDP is undercut and the Liberals are completely irrelevant here. They don't like elitists here, and if Elliott or (especially) Mulroney won, this seat would likely be competitive. But with Doug Ford, any hope the NDP had of picking this seat up is gone.
06/03/2018 seasaw
@JC, You keep making the same post and keep saying the Tories are in an implosion mode. You should
29/01/2018 JC
Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, PC would have held on to this seat with ease. With the PC in implosion mode, all anti-government votes will likely consolidate behind the NDP. Given their historical strength in this riding, I would say this is now leaning NDP.
2017-12-26 Craig
All we know is this working class riding will NOT go Liberal. This was one of their worst results in 2014, and they may finish in single digits.
While this should favour the PC's especially since they are higher province-wide, there are a few reasons to be cautious. First, the NDP could very well gain votes from the Liberals and Greens if they are seen as the only option to block the PC's. Second, with Patrick Brown's hard push against social conservatives, it may alienate enough of them that they stay home, vote Trillium in protest or even jump to the NDP on economic and labour issues even if they are culturally conservative. Finally, how much will Andrea Horwath covet the blue-collar vote, or does she try hard to regain urban progressives lost in 2014? If she goes with the latter, she should have a big leadership advantage here. If Monte McNaughton was PC leader, this would likely be safe PC (but with big losses elsewhere).
This is a ?classic? Brexit/Trump riding, and how that demographic plays out will be key here. Too many questions to be answered.
2017-12-24 Teddy Boragina
Don't under-estimate the NDP in this riding. In the transposition, the party is only 5.2% behind, and they would gain faster than the Tories do if the Liberals do not do well.
19/12/2017 watching and waiting
Recent multi-billion $ investment in local industry will help to calm economic concerns for trades heavy local economy. Moderate pc platform should appeal to some disgruntled liberal voters. NDP candidate remains a question. Green and Trillium candidates should improve vote share. PC incumbent will hold riding.
18/12/2017 Dr. Bear
I was looking at previous election results and I think the Liberals have already hit bottom here. There doesn't appear to be a repository of Liberal voters staying home, and PC support seems more or less consistent. MP Bob Bailey has been around for a decade and obviously has a strong following. Now if the NDP start looking really good and start eroding PC support in the cities, then maybe this will be TCTC. However, for now it's a PC hold.
18/12/2017 seasaw
The PC's really have to mess up in order to lose here, we're talking like a Campbell type disaster. Last couple of times, it has been closer than it should be because of Hudak and Harper, neither one will be a factor this time around
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Too close to call.
Outcome will be decided by the scale of the Liberal collapse in Southwestern Ontario; if it's big enough, the NDP could take this seat.
06/12/2017 Kathy
No reason PCs would lose this seat unless NDP over performs.

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