Prediction Changed
3:29 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Bruziewicz, Andy
Davidson, Pat
Christian Heritage
Desormeaux-Malm, Christopher
Fugard, Tim
McKeown, Allan

Pat Davidson

2006 Result:
Pat Davidson
Roger Gallaway **
Greg Agar
Mike Jacobs
Gary De Boer
John Elliott

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 29 G.A
It is seems like a close race already since Andy Brucewicz one of Sarnia City Councilers is running for the NDP people might just go for the popular and local vote here in Sarnia. But Pat Davidson here has been through alot here she has been a strong voice here in Sarnia-Lambton but through Election Canada's Over Spending on her it could or could not effect her. And Fugard I dunno I have no idea what he is going to pull out of the hat. but from his background he could just get the rural vote here
08 09 16 Joel
After seeing the commercial that the Liberals released today I think that this conservative seat is even more secure than before. If that isn't a picture of Sarnia as the polluter that should be taxed it sure looks like it. As employees and thus shareholders of Suncor, Imperial, Shell and Nova, the people of Sarnia Lambtion are less likely to vote for a plan that could decrease there net worth.
08 04 19 Daniel
Too close to call. Why? Just look at this riding's history: ever since it was created, it has been a PERFECT bellweather riding. I've never understood why it seems to have developed a reputation as a tough Liberal enclave - sure, the combined Liberal-NDP vote beats the Conservatives, but the same can be said for countless ridings that swung to the Tories last time. Of course, this riding isn't entirely a 'go-with-the-flow' one, as it often wildly bucks the trends at the provincial level (a sitting McGuinty Liberal cabinet minister defeated in the Tory disaster of 2007? It would have been an even BIGGER shock, had that cabinet minister not defeated a Harris PC MP in a similar upset in 1999).
With all that in mind - I predict that whoever wins the election will win this riding.
08 03 12 R.O.
This seat had been liberal for a while but was picked up by the conservatives in last federal election. Roger Galloway had been the liberal mp since 1993 but he is not running again. Patricia Davidson has now been mp for a couple of years and likely has a higher profile in the riding that when she first ran. This riding also went pc in the last provincial election when Bob Bailey beat liberal mpp in a surprise upset. As for the next federal race here liberals have found a new candidate Tim Fugard. But even with its liberal history itís a likely cpc hold for the time being.
07 11 13 tcm
I did call this seat right when Roger lost but this is a whole new ball game. The Liberals are in disarray and they have elected a farmer who has wide support amongst a voting block that Pat counted on last time. And the NDP has its highest name recognition candidate EVER and is coming off of an exciting campaign that saw the local candidate do better than ever. This is going to be a fun race and way too early to predict.
07 10 14
My prediction for this bell-weather riding is that former mayor and CPC MP Davidson will retake it. Non-urban ridings such as these are much more inclined to vote Conservative. Also, Davidson won with a comfy 4000 vote margin, I think that will only increase with her name recognition and the absence of a Liberal incumbent.
07 08 06 A.S.
Relative to everything else happening in Ontario, this might have been *the* upset of '06--and it was virtually all based upon a monolithic rural and advance vote. Not only Galloway losing, but by 33-to-41? Such a jolt, I wouldn't be surprised if it jolted back in some form, perhaps based on a touch of disgruntlement over Conservative rural policy, or just that the Chemical Corridor proper doesn't seem, well, CPC enough, notwithstanding its Andy Brandt (and youthful Tom Long) past, or the CHP/FCP undercurrent. Weirdly enough, it could even be the NDP--with councillor Andy Bruziewicz--with an advantage next time; they tend to do well in Sarnia whenever they really want to--though that could just as well keep the seat Tory...
07 03 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
In 2006 we were certain that Galloway would hold this for the Liberals in a relativly close race. Okay, we were flat wrong! Since hindsight is 20/20, we can see now that Conservative appeal extends well into Sarnia, more so than in other, larger southern Ontario cities (like London for example). With the CPC polling higher in non-metropolitan cities (like London and Sarnia) it's highly unlikely that this will go back to the Liberals. The race may change, but for now this is going blue.

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