Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 13:01:22

Constituency Profile


Gladu, Marilyn

McMichael, Jason Wayne

McPhail, Dave

Smith, Peter

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 5141.03%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (224/224 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Patricia Davidson


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15 10 13 Jack North
This is going to be a close call, but I sadly predict an NDP win by small margin.
The Liberal candidate has certainly taken a bite out of the Conservatives, but there wasn't much of a difference between the NDP and The Liberals during their debate, even though the Liberal candidate is by far the most qualified, some voters around here mistaken provincial politics with federal politics.
The Conservative candidate has been idle, recently due to the revelation of her racial posts and her surgery. The fact that her health is already in question is not a good sign and several people were not pleased with her racial comments, including members of her own party. Her response to Unions was that she was married to a Union member, but that doesn't answer the question. She also made up a statement that contradicted Harper when he said he would support a new refinery in principle, but then she said that Harper would match donations even though he never said that.
It could be a nail biter of a finish, to even a possible recount. The racial posts, and questionable health of the Conservative candidate has paved the way for the other two parties to attract some Conservative voters who question her purpose and health.
15 10 12 seasaw
I'm reluctantly calling this one for the CPC. This is a belleweather riding, since 1968, it has elected members from the governing party. Most polls now indicate a Liberal victory, the reason I'm predicting CPC is twofolds. 1. The CPC still has a pretty good chance of forming the government, which is kinda strange, because Harper's going for his fourth election victory, something that neither MacKenzie King nor Pierre Trudeau were able to do. The only person who was successful Laurier, did it at an age long before women could vote and Czars still ruled Russia. 2. The Liberals were very weak in the riding in 2011 and as a resultthey haven't put too much effort here, that combined with the fact that NDP's gone from Orange Wave to Orange crash, will probably keep this one in the blue column.
15 10 04 Jeff
This riding is combination of urban (Sarnia), small towns (Corunna, Wyoming, Petrolia, Oil Springs), and rural (most of Lambton).
Orange signs are awash in Sarnia with blue in Lambton and the small towns. There are smaller smatterings of red in most places.
There is a sense that blue (Gladu) is declining as the candidate. She chose not to attend a few debates and has had some major gaffaws that were posted in a left-wing national online publication. She recently announced that she was leaving the campaign trail for a 'small surgery and recovery'. Here Facebook and Twitter have been idle. The timing of all of this is peculiar given it is on the eve of the election finale causing many to believe she is being muzzled by the big blue machine. Harper was in this riding a few weeks ago at an invite only rally but the momentum from that has quickly fallen off. She will keep most of the core Conservative voters but will not gain any new votes. Those dissatisfied with the party will choose not to vote instead of picking another party.
Red (McPhail) is remaining steady but there isn't any reason to believe that they can make a run for the title in this riding. Many have not forgotten the Chretien and Martin days and don't have a whole lot of faith in Justin even though the local candidate here has a decent advocate history. He will keep some of the core Liberal voters but a bunch will go to Orange.
Green (Smith) doesn't have a hope since this riding is dominated by a heavy petrochemical. Smith would do well in any other riding but this one. He will earn votes from those that want change but not Orange.
So this leaves Orange (McMichael). He is a fairy young candidate who is going after the vote for change. Mulcair paid his third visit to Sarnia today seeing over 1000 people attend at the largest indoor venue in the riding. Spectators at these open rallies have grown every time the NDP leader comes to visit. McMichael is an articulate speaker and knows his platform receiving widespread support wherever he goes. Orange will post record results as a result of those who have flipped from party to party over the years as well as the youth will come out in droves for this election.
Prediction: Orange by a few thousand votes.
15 09 20 R.O.
I seem to remember this riding was also targeted by provincial ndp last time and although it was closer that election the pc incumbent Bob Bailey got re elected. So it seems to be a riding the ndp have decided to target for whatever reasons. Conservative incumbent Pat Davidson has retired and it is an open seat this year. Marilyn Gladu is somewhat new as a candidate but the ndp and liberal candidates are also new . both Harper and Mulcair have campaigned in this riding this election so it does appear to be a closer race than 2011 and between conservative and ndp candidates.
15 09 11 Mark R
I have visited this riding for business quite a bit during the last few weeks. Signs don't vote so counting all signs, even those on public property doesn't represent much whatsoever. What I did notice is that the NDP has three times as many signs on private property vs. Conservative Gladu. The Liberal candidate had few, if any - on private property. The NDP have risen in popularity as was demonstrated in the last provincial election. There is no incumbent here and because there are the winds of change blowing - this may surprise on Oct 19th.
15 09 09 Mike A.
I'm not involved with any particular party, but I do drive around Sarnia on a daily basis for work, and I also frequently cycle recreationally through the rural areas of this riding. I have been making a mental tally of lawn signs and have come up with a highly informal census (not counting signs on public property, empty lots, and other non-residential properties). Note that 'informal' means that I understand this is not a good predictor of actual voter turnout. These are just my observations. Also, as a long-time resident, the candidate with the most signs generally seems to win around here.
Jason McMichael would seem to have a marginal advantage, but there is plenty of support for Gladu as well (mostly in the north end and rural areas). McPhail looks to be in third, but the Liberals still retain a decent amount of legacy support in this riding. Green signs are even rarer than they usually are around here.
I believe that there is a pretty good chance that the NDP and Liberals will split the vote again in this riding, allowing the Conservatives to come up the middle and win. That is, unless this election turns into a real landslide (in which case it will likely tip orange). If the campaign continues to go terribly for the Conservatives, I could see this riding flipping, but currently I'd say it's very close to a coin toss.
15 09 02 S
I work on the ground as a volunteer with the NDP. Our incumbent, Pat Davidson is retiring and that means there is no incumbent advantage. The race is tight between the NDP's Jason McMichael and the Conservatives Marilyn Gladu. The results have tightened from 2011's 9000 vote difference to 2014's 2000 vote difference. I know Sarnia?Lambton is the most bellwethered riding as we follow trends nationally more often than locally, and polls are pointing NDP. Also, looking at our canvassing numbers from a few random sheets, it seems that we have a slight lead. I feel this race is going to be own by a few hundred votes.
15 08 18 jeff316
Ever since the provincial NDP surprised with a second-place finish a few elections ago, the NDPers have loved to spam Sarnia's page with calls for a orange electoral surprise. But this riding isn't just Sarnia - which on its own would be a stretch for the NDP, given an increasing number of retirees, a general skepticism of big government fostered by the provincial Liberals, and a conservative working class dynamic (watch for Windsor to elect a Conservative this time around). No, in addition, this riding includes the wealthy cashcroppers of Lambton county (who don't care about milk quota) and the hardscrabble small-town conservatives of Oil Springs and Petrolia and Wyoming and the river front communities along the St. Clair. Another Conservative win.
15 08 13 A.S.
Uh, Rational Optimist: first of all, you'll notice in my so-called 'exuberance' that I withheld from making an actual party prediction in Sarnia-Lambton (and Brantford-Brant, for that matter)--that is, polls being volatile and all, I'm still allowing for wiggle room. (And indeed, if the end result echoes 2014's provincial result--which, according to Follow The Numbers, is a possibility even 308's suggested, despite your eagerness to separate provincial from federal--it'd vindicate my wisdom in withholding. And unless you're blind, I *did* acknowledge the provincial PC incumbent.). And secondly, remember that my 'Mulcair ascendent' comment reflects a moment when the NDP were topping national polls--and as high as 39% in one outlier--and if you want to know where my 'exuberance' comes from, it acknowledges the strange dynamics in unexpected places that can happen once the NDP assumes an unprecedented lead--think of Alberta '15 or Ontario '90 (never mind the extraordinariness of Quebec '11). Yeah, things can still change; but the way you're talking would make more sense if the NDP's en route to reverting to its familiar low-to-mid-20s third-place *nationally*--which, as of this writing, would be a gamble to predict (even if it's a not-implausible scenario). And finally, keep in mind that I foresaw--and from a, well, rational and optimistic rather than partisan-plump standpoint--the ONDP being competitive in Kitchener-Waterloo back when conventional wisdom (ironically reinforced by 2011 results) held it to be strictly a Lib-Tory marginal, nothing else. That's what comes with understanding ground-condition subtleties and thinking outside the box, as opposed to using prediction sites as one's psephological talking GPS girl. (But, that all said, apropos of the presumed NDP-vs-Con picture in Sarnia-Lambton, I'm wondering what effect 'pipeline politics' might have in this most petrochemical-industry-defined of constituencies...)
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Like with Essex, this is another riding where the NDP are surprisingly competitive. This is another bellwether riding and with the Conservatives narrowly winning according to Threehundredeight. The current Conservative MP isn't running here again and that's something that should be considered. There won't be an incumbency bump here and this is the Conservative's seat to lose. I'll be bold and call it for the NDP.
15 08 04 Rational Optimist
A.S.: ?Mulcair-ascendent era »? They're certainly polling high, but that doesn't mean they're going to be taking ridings like this. I note that you say a ?landslide? is possible in ridings like Brantford-Brant (which is too close to call, but pretty easy to call as something other than an NDP landslide). I think you might be a bit too exuberant. It does look like they're going to make big gains, but not every riding will go their way, and this is one of the ones that is very unlikely to.
In 2008, the NDP edged the Liberals just barely, as you point out, and the Tories took fifty percent of the votes. In 2011, the NDP did substantially better, and the Tories likewise improved their result. I'm not sure why you bring up the provincial elections, though, if you're trying to make the point that this is a too-close-to-call seat. You talk about who came in second or third, but you leave out the fact that the Tory incumbent won by over five points last year. I'm not sure if you're trying to make the point that the second place finisher in this riding will be hard to predict (that might be true), but there's little chance the Tories will lose this.
I agree with you on two fronts, though. Firstly, you're probably right that this is about 2/3 Sarnia and 1/3 rural. So you answered your own question, I think correctly. Secondly, the Liberals are now (according to Forum this week and Ekos last week) polling behind the NDP in Ontario. Unfortunately for the NDP, the Liberals aren't the ones holding this seat. The best they can realistically hope for is a second-place finish in a fairly strong Conservative riding.
15 08 04 Dr. Bear
To respond to seasaw, I completely agree with you 100%. An NDP prediction is (and was) premature. At the time of my earlier post, the prediction was for the CPC. At that time, the NDP polling numbers starting making significant gains in SW Ontario. I was quite surprised that this was occurring in Sarnia and my earlier post was a product of that. I needn't reiterate your comments as I think you've hit the nail on the head.
I also would like to agree with offtherecord that Mulcair's visit to Sarnia says something. While I do not think the NDP has a shot everywhere Mulcair is visiting (for instance, my riding in North Bay, which is included on that tour), in Sarnia-Lambton, it's looking promising for team orange.
15 08 01 A.S.
Rational Optimist: there are some things to keep in mind besides the inherent faultiness of raw reliance upon 308/TCTC-style 'scientific projection methodology'. One is: esp. given what *current* (as opposed to those from when Justin was leading) trends are showing, why is it so 'inevitable' that the Libs will gain at the expense of the NDP? (Like, why can't it be at the expense of the Cons as well--from *both* the Lib *and* NDP ends?) Second: given how the populace is something like 2/3 to 3/4 urban Sarnia and environs, how 'rural' is the riding, really? And thirdly, consider how provincially in 2014, the NDP came almost within 5 points of upsetting a PC incumbent--and take away the advance polls, and the E-day margin would have been less than 3%! And that didn't prevent the still-3rd-place Ontario Liberals from doing 4 points better than their 2011 federal counterparts, either; so, there's 'inevitable' improvement for you. And if you want to use the 'hidden fact' that NDP are still polling 3rd in Ontario, at this point in time it's a tight 'within the margin' kind of 3rd, not the typical distant 'mired in the teens' 3rd of yore. Look: the NDP have expended extra effort here for some time now--they even nicked past the Grits for 2nd in 2008, never mind 2011--so you can't say that in a Mulcair-ascendent era, the continued reluctance to call this for CPC is off base...
15 08 01 Jason
Sarnia Lambton was seen as one of the most reliable federal bellweather ridings. They voted for the winning party in every election since 1963.
However, this riding has been moving away from the Liberals in the last few elections. Even if Trudeau makes a comeback and wins the plurality of seats nation wide, his party will not take this riding.
At the moment, the NDP are in a strong position nationally and in Ontario where they are hovering around 30%. This should be enough for them to pick up this riding, especially when its an open seat.
15 07 27 Rational Optimist
It's a bit of a head-scratcher that a riding won with over 50% of the vote is listed 'too close to call,' but I guess shifts do happen. This is going to stay Conservative, however. Tooclosetocall.ca says there's a 68% probability of that, and this is while they are predicting an NDP government. The NDP's polling gains are much stronger outside of Ontario, and the headline polling number hides the fact that they remain the third-place party in the province. I agree that they will pick up a few seats in Southwestern Ontario, but this won't be one of them- you'll have to look to the bigger cities for that. This riding is almost entirely white, fairly rural, and not very affluent. Yes, it is the most bellwetherly riding in the country, but those streaks end eventually, and we don't know who will form government.
The Liberals would have to expend conscious effort to do worse here than they did in 2011. They will inevitably do well, at the expense of the NDP. I do not think that the Tories will increase their margin of victory, especially without the incumbency here, but I would wager that the NDP will not improve their vote count, and the Tories will win over Liberal and NDP opponents with similar vote counts.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Again, NDP think they're gonna get this but they're not. It might be closer, but this is still more Conservative than NDP. Might be closer without an incumbent. CPC hold.
15 07 22 offtherecord
When any national leader comes to Sarnia it says something. The logistics of doing it are a challenge and it adds a lot of travel time so Mulcair coming this early tells us what their polling numbers say. The fact that the Liberals and Conservatives picked complete unknown candidates and have no campaigns tells you what their polling numbers say. The NDP has built here for decades and will grab the orange wave and ride it.
15 07 10 seasaw
I wouldn't call this for anyone at the moment, and Dr. Bear, it's a bit too premature to call this for the NDP. Sure, they are leading in polls right now, but that is probably the result of two factors: 1. Stephen Harper, ever since he's been PM, there's been an all out assault on him, even when he's done something right, they make it like he's done something wrong, his support's held steady for most of his tenure, 2. Justin Trudeau, for the last little while, the CPC has done what they do best, negative advertising with Trudeau as their target. Mulcair's had a free ride, that's why he's leading. We don't know how long it'll last, if it lasts well into the campaign, NDP will be under attack from 3 sides in Quebec ( LPC, CPC, BQ ), ans two sides in the rest of Canada, will they be leading after that ? This is another riding where we have to hold prediction until late in the campaign
15 07 06 Dr. Bear
Southwestern Ontario is another sleeper region for the NDP and support for them has been growing steadily here. Polling numbers indicate that the NDP would win in Sarnia.
15 03 29 monkey
While I would be tempted to call this for the Conservatives, this riding has voted for the governing party in every election since 1963 meaning whomever wins here should win nationally. Nonetheless the Tories did win here provincially in the past three elections despite losing provincewide so perhaps the riding is moving away from its bellwether past to a safe Tory riding. The real question will be how do the Liberals and NDP split the votes and can either do well in Sarnia and Point Edward (the Tories will dominate the rest of the riding regardless of whom is the candidate).
15 03 28 D.M.
I'm going to do what a previous commentator said people would do and go ahead and call this one LOL.
I don't think they are totally off base in saying this might not be an automatic CPC hold but I think it's a pretty safe seat even without an incumbent, heck even Bob Bailey managed to hold this for the Provincial Tories despite one of the worst OPC campaigns ever.
The left of centre voters would really have to get behind one of the NDP/Lib candidates, but if anything there will be even more of a vote split between the two this time with the Libs running stronger and the NDP running weaker(though perhaps showing signs of a partial revival).
Probably a CPC hold barring an atrocious campaign for them.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
There will be many who will automatically call this a Conservative hold. However, with the retirement of Pat Davidson, the dynamics could change. The NDP have been showing well here as of late. Also the Liberals have not yet chosen their candidate. I'm saying wait and see how things develop.

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