Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Davidson, Pat

Desormeaux-Malm, Christopher

Fugard, Tim

van Bodegom, Tim

White, Brian

Pat Davidson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • lambton-kent-middlesex (34/217 Polls)
  • sarnia-lambton (189/189 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 10 joey joe joe
    Sarnia Lampton has voted for the winner of every election since 1963 and is Canada's best bellweather riding. Likely will hold true again with Cons 8-12% ahead by the second week of the campaign.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This has always backed the winning party since 1945, however looking at the results of the last election, the Liberals have a better chance at winning nationally than here never mind this is not likely. In addition Roger Gallaway was pretty right wing for a Liberal so I suspect many were personal votes, not Liberal votes so the strong uptick in the Tories probably had more to do with many of the personal votes for Roger Gallaway swinging over to the Tories as opposed to actual Liberals. Even Sarnia is your blue collar populist type meaning the Tories still will get over 40% and the left is pretty even split between the Liberals and NDP.
    11 02 07 initials
    Interesting speculation that the Conservatives might need to replace Davidson. It would certainly shake things up.
    The NDP have replaced their candidate due to health reasons. The new nominee (Brian White) is young and placed strongly (for a newcomer) in the fall municipal vote. Even though he was not elected, many of his ideas have gained traction at the council table. He provides a very strong contrast to Davidson.
    The Liberals will re-run the same candidate as in 2008. His profile is very low and has offered no reason for anyone to switch their vote to him that did last time (kind of like his party I suppose?).
    It will be a two horse race in Sarnia. The NDP will continue to gain ground, but the Conservatives will hold (unless the Davidson rumour proves to be true).
    10 01 20 Waszak
    It appears that Pat Davidson will follow Greg Thompson's lead and NOT run in the next election. I have heard from VERY good sources that the Conservatives are looking for a candidate. If this becomes an open seat it's a whole new ball game. Also the municipal election may play a role as candidates decide where best to put their name and money. One to watch.
    09 01 01 A.S.
    Hard to believe that Roger Gallaway once seemed permanent here; instead, this became the only Ontario seat in 2008 where (thanks in part to a popular municipal-councillor candidate) the NDP overtook the Liberals for second place--and it would now appear (with an assist from a shockingly good NDP provincial result in 2007) Jack Layton's taking Sarnia *very* seriously as a pickup prospect, milking the HST issue for all its worth. One catch, though: a nearly 30-point margin to make up. Which is why I'm momentarily still deeming this a Tory hold--though keep in mind that it was so unexpected a federal pickup in 2006 (and provincial in 2007) that, aside from the rural parts, the foundation for CPC strength still feels like it's resting upon quicksand. But on behalf of the NDP? Maybe the point is more that the Grits are effectively (momentarily?) out of the picture now...
    09 10 15 TCM
    While this might seem like a runaway for Davidson she seems to be in some trouble. The asbestoes issue has hurt her bad and helped the NDP unite their base. The NDP have a national candidate who has been getting national media and money. It might be a long-shot but with the Liberals in free-fall the NDP are targeting this riding. Look back at the numbers the NDP is the only party to gain support every election.
    09 10 13 R.O.
    seen as somewhat of a swing riding over the years although at the moment conservative mp Patricia Davidson seems to have the advantage here. the green shift was likely extremely unpopular here due to the industrial jobs/ chemical industry which is located in the riding. although even without that policy the liberals wouldn't of likely won the riding back anyways for a number of reasons. one being there candidate Tim Fugard had very little profile in the riding when compared to past liberal mp Roger Galloway. Tim Fugard is going to run for the liberals again but still lacks the profile the current mp has . the ndp also run very strong here so there is considerable vote spliting on the left. there running a new candidate this time , Crissy Sinipole an aborigional woman so it be interesting to she how she does here.
    09 09 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The Green Shift was VERY unpopular in chemical valley and there was a huge Liberal sit out in '08. Even still, it would take a Liberal surge and Gallaway's return to make this interesting again. Easy CPC hold.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Davidson will hold this seat. She's knocking at 50% of the vote, and has too much of a lead to overcome.
    11 04 28 pitcher
    I need it down in public so I can say I told you so. The NDP campaign has been solid while the conservatives have been bringing in help, doing robo calls begging for support and getting more and more desperate. The asbestoes issue is killing Pat Davidson (The Prime Minister supports it's use and federal funding of exportation) The predicted further collapse of the Liberals and the youthful energy of the NDP will make this a NDP win.

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