Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:27 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:26 PM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Greg Agar
Marcel Beaubien
Dave Core
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Anthony Cramer
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Gary De Boer
John Elliott
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Roger Gallaway

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex (14.6%)
Rose-Marie Ur
Sarnia-Lambton (85.4%)
Hon. Roger Gallaway

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,671 49.16%
13,430 30.46%
4,524 10.26%
2,987 6.78%
1,472 3.34%

(34/217 polls, 10905/69046 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(189/189 polls, 63590/63590 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
24/06/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
This one will probably be close - both Gallaway and Beaubien well known in local politics. A personality transplant would probably work wonders for Beaubien, but he'll have to stick with what he's got and it's none too appealing. Gallaway will probably win a close race here.
18/06/04 M.G.
Email: [hidden]
I agree with Sarah and James. Gallaway will benefit from a weak NDP campaign in this riding - although it will be the closer than the last two elections. Several of my friends who've supported the Libs in the past are staying home this time. Signs around my neighbourhood - Lakeshore and Modeland - give the edge to Gallaway - and this is where the Neo-Tories should be doing well.
And Paul is right - at the federal level anyway. For the last 10 federal elections (and this IS a federal election - lest we forget!): Lib. Cullen in the Trudeau years, Tory Campbell in 79, back to Lib. Cullen in 80, James in 84 and 88, then Gallaway since 93. It will be interesting to see how the local results compare to the national results come election night.
17/06/04 Paul
Email: [hidden]
I ment to say in Federal elections Sarnia Lambton has voted with the government since 1968. Even in 79 they voted PC and dumped Bud Cullen for a unknown Bill Campbell. Again in 80 Cullen beat Campbell then the tories won in 84 and 88 with Ken James then Gallaway since 93. Marcel is a good candidate and he did win the new part of the riding in last fall's provincial election. I wouldn't be too surprized to see green move up into 3rd spot.They have a young energetic candidate. The NDP don't seam to very visable this time.
17/06/04 Bubba
Email: jordanbuddy2002@hotmail.com
A recent CHOK informal poll, however, suggested Beaubien beating Gallaway by a 2-1 margin. Turnout will be important here, and all over the Southwest. If Libs stay home, look for upsets. But Gallaway should still pull off a victory.
12/06/04 Sarah
Email: [hidden]
I think James' analysis is accurate. Roger Gallaway will beat Marcel Beaubien. To begin with, Gallaway has a far greater number of signs on private property than Beaubien. Steven Harper and John Reynolds, who have both campaigned extensively in Ontario, have not come to Sarnia - which indicates that Gallaway probably has a good lead.
Surprisingly, the Christian Heritage Party seems to be running a strong campaign. They have a large number of signs up. The CHP will likely leach some traditional Conservative vote especially in the rural areas.
If you believe the polls, the decline in Liberal support in Ontario has not resulted in gains for the Conservatives, but for the NDP. The NDP is not running a strong campaign. This means that left leaning voters will likely vote Liberal. Sarnia has thousands of union workers and in past elections they have supported the Liberals. In the absence of a strong NDP candidate it is likely they will go Liberal
Gallaway has not always followed party line on legislation and issues that are important locally. For this reason he seems to have loyal local support and good personal popularity. On the other hand, Beaubien is from the lovely town of Petrolia and is not as well known in Sarnia as he is in the rural parts of the riding. This is a problem since the majority of the voters are in Sarnia. Furthermore, Beaubien was not a popular MPP and was just defeated in the October provincial election.
Paul's post is wrong! Sarnia Lambton has not always voted with the governing party: Most recently Caroline Di Cocco won for the Liberals provincially in 1999.
12/06/04 Stevo
Move this one to the TCTC column. Latest riding-by-riding seat projections show the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals in this supposedly bedrock Liberal city, giving more credence to the view that the Liberals are now no longer safe ANYWHERE in Ontario outside of Metro Toronto. Gallaway is one of the most socially conservative members of the Liberal caucus, so holding non-politically correct views on hot-button issues evidently do not hurt a candidate's chances here. Sarnia-Lambton will be one to watch come election night.
10/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
A perfect MP, a perfect opponent--and ex-MPP Beaubien's even sought to campaign *against* the Harris/Eves record of mismanagement. Though Sarnia Toryism has been peculiar; provincially, it was held by Andy Brandt even in the '87 rout, yet David Boushy was barely elected in '95. And it's Tom Long's hometown. Also a big Lambton County Evangelical constituency to deal with. Also noteworthy: the provincial Liberal vote went *down* in 2003, and the NDP did far better than many expected--potential of a Jo Co echo-effect on the other side of Lake St Clair? But as the seat's now configured into Beaubien country, it's more on the Tory hit list, esp. given the wave--and the irrepressible Roger Gallaway may, in fact, be repressible after all...
09/06/04 Paul
Email: [hidden]
Sarnia Lambton has alway voted with the governing party if the liberals keep falling in the polls move this to tory blue.
26/05/04 James Grant
Email: [hidden]
I think that Brad's comments do hold true for a number of ridings in Ontario, but this is not one of them. Let me start by pointing out that Sarnia is not Windsor (in terms of NDP faithful). Regardless of that, the NDP only last night picked a candidate and no one knows who it is. Secondly, Roger Gallaway is a well respected local politician, regardless of the problems surrounding his party. He is a maverick that speaks for this riding. Third, former MPP Beaubien was defeated by a rookie Liberal in the provincial election who hailed from Strathroy. He did not even hold his own in that campaign. Furthermore, he barely pulled out the 1999 election with a 900 vote win over the Liberal candidate. Mix this in with the fact that 85% of this new riding is from Gallaway's old district, Beaubien will struggle. He is a county person, which will help him in the out lying areas, like Petrolia, but Sarnia is a tough egg to crack for someone outside it or its direct suburban areas.
23/05/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
Sarnia-Lambton is an interesting riding because it now contains the industrial town of Sarnia and the rural riding of Lambton. Under normal circumstances I might be skepitcal about its propensity to elect a conservative, but let us not forget 1995 when Dave Boushy won here. Now, you might be quick to reply that Mr. Boushy only won in extenuating circumstances due to the mass-enthusiasm for Harris' Commonsense Revolution... after all, he was defeated in 1999. Interestingly, however, those same circumstances may be playing out again in Ontario. McGuinty really did a number on Martin in Ontario, and as a result of his budget, many former Liberal holds are now coming into play. This mornings poll numbers: CP: 39%, and Lib: 42% (in Ontario)... and that's before the campaign even starts. At those levels I believe this riding to be a real competition. Two more reasons to back this up... 1) Mr. Beaubien has very strong name recognition in the newly added rural portions of this riding. He was the mayor of Petrolia and, as I mentioned, the MPP for the area for 8 years. The CP probably couldn't have asked for a better candidate. 2) The industrial nature of Sarnia has often made it an NDP target, and if blue-collar workers in the city want to punish the Liberals for either their cousins' foul-ups in Ontario or adscam, or whatever, there is a high propensity for Liberal bleeding to the NDP. Of course the NDP would never be able to amass enough support to actually win the riding, but they could do damage to the Liberals. It's still early, but I'd wager the Liberals are in trouble.
12/04/04 H.G.
Email: [hidden]
Roger Gallaway will win this riding easily. He is popular and willing to speak out for his constituents, unlike his main opponent, the former provincial Tory MPP for the county, who has proven he is abrasive and offensive - in short, totally detestable. Sarnia-Lambton will go with Roger.
20/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Roger Galloway is in rock solid in this riding. He's willing to go contrary to the party line if it suits his constituents (as it should be! politicians take note!). No politician who actually works for his constituents as opposed to the party, the prime minister or themseleves, would be elected out.
16/03/04 RWA
Local MP Roger Galloway is a bit of a maverick and spoke out agaisnt Kyoto because of local industry concerns. Because of that, he will likely be returned to Ottawa.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster