Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Oxford


Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:25:16
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Aldred, Melody Ann

Farlow, Mike

Kunschner, Zoe

MacKenzie, Dave

McKay, Don


Population/populations
(2011 census)

108656


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2878358.98%
1241825.44%
47079.64%
21104.32%
Other 7861.61%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Oxford
   (239/248 polls, 97.30% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Dave MacKenzie
27973
12164
4521
2058
Other776


   Brant
   (9/248 polls, 2.70% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Phil McColeman
810
254
186
52
Other10



 


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15 08 03 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Actually, 2011's quarter-of-the-vote 'respectable showing' for the NDP *is* worth remarking upon--a reflection of the growing auto-industry force in Woodstock/Ingersoll, maybe? Though it was really more at the expense of the Grits, for whom this was one of their two lost Ontario deposits (the other one in an even more hardcore 'auto town', Oshawa). I'll stick with the safe-Con party line here--however, if Mulcair's inching t/w a majority or near-majority threshold, this, yes, even Oxford *could* surprise.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
69.171.136.202
While some rust belt towns will give the NDP a respectable showing, this is a safe Conservative riding. Easy hold for the Tories.
15 03 24 JC
69.165.234.184
This is the one of the safest conservative seats in Ontario, probably between this and Renfrew Nipissing Pembroke.



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