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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:24 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:14 PM 14/03/2004

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Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Leslie Bartley
Parti Marijuana Party:
James Bender
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Murray Coulter
Canadian Action canadienne:
Alex Kreider
Zoé Dorcas Kunschner
Dave Mackenzie
Kaye Sargent
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Irene Tietz

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Oxford (100.0%)
John Finlay

2000 Result/Résultats:
14,869 35.44%
12,834 30.59%
11,283 26.89%
2,219 5.29%
755 1.80%

(197/197 polls, 69756/69756 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 max
Email: [hidden]
The guy to watch in this riding has his hands pretty full with the marijuana party candidate, james bender. i've seen this guy at work on the streets and he has been pulling people out to local venues for years. He seems very centered on the landscape, and if what I hear on the streets is right, he might have an impact. He has drawn on the ranks of the poor and disenfranchised to pull him out of the dust...I would have to say that it could break the voter base and we may have an historic turnout here!
13/06/04 Woodstick Wanderer
Email: [hidden]
Dr. Bruce came within 3 points of losing in '88 due to a very strong showing by the Christian Heritage Party. Yes, the Tories' did lose some support because of industrial workers' concerns about free trade but most of the bleeding was the result of a strong, anti-abortion third party that pulled votes away from the PCs.
09/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Among the Oshawa predictions, someone spoke of Sid Ryan as a sort of de facto incumbent; I guess the same ought to be said of Dave Mackenzie in Oxford--in fact, it's entirely due to him that Oxford is looking like such a cinch Tory pickup. Because otherwise...remember that in his last election in 1988, the PCs' Bruce Halliday came within a 3-point whisker of *losing*; yes, even Oxford nearly met the fate of Haldimand-Norfolk, Northumberland, Leeds-Grenville. (It was a rural-Ontario phenomenon; by contrast, it was within the affluent 905 that the PCs built most of its 10%+ 1988 leads.) So the rock-solid Conservatism-to-the-bone is illusory, even here...
02/06/04 David D.
Email: [hidden]
Dave MacKenzie (Former Police Chief) is running for his 3rd time in Oxford. However, I think each of his past defeats can easily be contributed to the lack of unity in the right. John Finley (Incumbent, well known teacher & principal) perhaps the most successful Liberal in this riding in recent years, has defeated the Conservatives/Alliance with shrinking success and due to his retirement, a new face such as Murray Coulter (a widely unknown lawyer) just won't cut it when the Liberals are already in a slum. Despite the Liberal support in the major city of Woodstock, the southern rural regions with the majority of voters will easily decide the outcome of Oxford. With the united right, this blue riding will be an easy win for the new Conservatives.
29/05/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
This riding had the highest PC/Alliance vote total of any riding in Canada in the 2000 election. This is Dave's 3rd time running and without the right of centre vote splitting, he will win. This riding also bucked the red tide in last fall's provincial election and voted for the incumbent PC candidate. I have spoke to many residents in the south portion of Oxford, (Tillsonburg), and even the Liberal supporters are upset because of McGuinty. Mackenzie will win with over 50% of the vote.
07/05/04 SF
Email: [hidden]
Nationally, there may be a few Red Tories who prefer the Liberals to the united Conservatives, but they don't live in Oxford. When Kim Campbell did her last desperate tour in 1993 to try and save the bluest of blue seats, Oxford was on the list. Since 1993, the Liberals have won by relatively narrow margins, even when benefiting from the vote split and from very strong candidate recognition. (It often appears that every adult in the county was a student at some time in a high school where John Finlay was a teacher, vice principal or principal.) Now that there is only one significant Conservative party, this riding will revert to its natural state.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: Thebigeape2000@hotmail.com
One of a number of ridings in Ontario that will go Conservative due to the merging on the right. In 2000 there was a clear three way race between the Libs, the PCs and the Alliance. Our opinion is that the Liberals have little to no hope here now.
15/03/04 RWA
Email: [hidden]
One of the bluest ridings in the province, it was the only riding in the London area that stayed Tory provincially in 2003. Should be an easy Conservative pickup.
15/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
With no more incumbancy factor, and the PC/Alliance combined vote toppling the past Liberal vote, plus a constituency that could find either Harper, Stronach, or Clement appealing, I think Conservative candidate David MacKenzie should handily defeat Liberal Murray Coutler.
15/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
This should be one of the top 10 on the list of conservative gains. With Dave Mackenzie as the candidate, they will win the seat.
15/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Dead Liberal Walking #4.
Lowest winning percentage in Ontario for the Liberals last time around. Shouldn't even be close this time.
11/03/04 Brad
If I had to pick one riding in Ontario where the conservatives are justifiably waiting to reap the benefits of the unified party, it is Oxford. I believe Liberal Finlay only received somewhere around 35% of the vote last time, and, astonishingly, won with that showing. If I were a betting man, I'd put serious money on Oxford going CP.... though I imagine the odds wouldn't pay that well since everyone else would be doing the same...
29/02/04 BP
Current MP, John Finlay, is retiring after 10 years. The riding is held provincially be Conservative Ernie Hardeman. The Conservative candidate is expected to be David Mckenzie who has finished strong second twice already as a PC. Prior to 1993, this was a very safe Tory seat. United Right should win this seat handidly.

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