Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Arsenault, Paul

Farlow, Mike

Lobzun, Tim

MacKenzie, Dave

Markus, John

Dave MacKenzie

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • oxford (197/197 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 03 29 C.A.B.
    I would argue that, if this is indeed the bluest seat in SW Ontario, then Dave MacKenzie deserves the lion's share of the credit. He was one of the few bright spots for the PCs in 1997 and 2000, bringing them so tantalizingly close to victory; in 2004, the Liberal incumbent wisely stepped down and allowed the returning MacKenzie to win by fifteen points - no small margin that year. Also remember that in 1988, as well as provincially in 2003, the PCs nearly lost here. However much weight MacKenzie carries, though, he won last time with a clear majority and an astonishing 33-point margin. Not to mention that, when the writ dropped, no one had been nominated to run against him. I think that says it all.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    In 2000 and 1997, David MacKenzie almost won as a Progressive Conservative and when one considers the Reform/Alliance got over 20% in both elections, this only went Liberal due to the split on the right and barely. With right united, this is probably the safest Tory riding in the 519 area code.
    11 03 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Snooze-fest in this riding. Oxford and most SW Ontario ridings are a lock for the CPC. For this to switch one of the other parties needs an amzing candidate.
    09 09 15 A.S.
    What was most interesting last time is that the Liberals sunk to the point where less than 1.5 points separated them from the NDP--is that what recent success in wooing the auto industry will bring to a seat like this? Anyway, even if that's a low-level electoral portent, it's still well over 30 points behind Mackenzie.
    09 09 15 rbgs
    Oxford is one of the safest ridings in Ontario for the Conservatives. When the PC and Reform Parties split the conservative vote, the Liberals were in by riding up the middle. It did not hurt that the federal PCs had destroyed their credibility. Even with all of this, the Liberals only won by 2000 votes in 2000.
    Three elections ago, Murray Coulter was a strong candidate for the Liberals, having been a prominent Woodstock lawyer with excellent connections throughout the riding. He was defeated 20,606 to 14,011 by Dave Mackenzie.
    Two elections ago, Greg Mordue was also a very strong candidate for the Liberals having just delivered the new Toyota plant to Woodstock. He was defeated 23,140 to 13,961 by Dave Mckenzie.
    Despite declining Conserative support in Ontario, things got worse for the Liberals in Oxford during the last election. Liberal Martha Dennis worked hard canvassing, but was doomed. She lost 23,330 to 8,586 to Mackenzie, even with a slight decline in the NDP vote from an historic high in 2006.
    I understand that the Liberals do not have a candidate yet. Small wonder. I cannot imagine that either Mordue or Dennis will run again. Mackenzie is by no means a smart man. He is the former chief of police of Woodstock and has distinguished himself in Ottawa by his utter lack of distinction. That said, he toiled away with the well-run PC association for many years -- even when they were in the wilderness. He seems to have sewn up the nomination indefinitely. The rump of the Reform Party seems to have followed Mackenzie meekly.
    Whoever runs in 2009 or 2010 is going to have to find evidence that Dave Mackenzie is a member of al Qaeda. In the alternative, Stephen Harper is going to have to run an exceptionally disastrous campaign. So long as he wishes to run, and so long as the federal Conservatives keep their mouth muzzles tight, this riding will remain a Conservative bastion.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Mackenzie will hang on to the seat with little difficulty. A 14,000 vote lead is too much to overcome.

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