Prediction Changed
11:32 PM 03/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Fueten, Nora
Christian Heritage
Gots, John G.
McColeman, Phil
St. Amand, Lloyd
New Democratic
Van Tilborg, Brian

Lloyd St. Amand

2006 Result:
Lloyd St. Amand **
Phil McColeman
Lynn Bowering
Adam King
John H. Wubs
John C. Turmel

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 10 frank1100
This riding will be close. But with the power of incumbency and the rise in Ontario of Liberal fortunes (and some strategic voting) Mr. St. Armand will hold this seat.
08 10 10 seasaw
The Liberal campaign has picked up momentum. They are for sure going to stop a CPC majority, and may be even form the next government. This riding has not been kind to the Tories, even on the best of days, and this campaign is sure not one of the CPC's best. Liberal hold.
08 10 09 OgtheDim
This one will be very close, but with the Tories falling in Ontario, the Libs should pick off the soft Tory vote here and hold on.
As for calling this area rural, I'd tend to suggest a sub region called MidWest Ontario within the SouthWest Ontario part that would include basically the Grand Valley ridings. Due to its links via the 403 to the GTA, Brant and Haldimand Norfolk for that matter, have more in common with Kitchener-Conestoga and Wellington-Halton Hills then with Bruce Grey or Sarnia-Lambton.
08 10 08 Rebel
I must tentatively correct Objective Observor and do so from the perspective of a long-ago resident of Brant County.
The County, aka ?Brant on the Grand? in Election Canada poll results, voted Conservative and that would appear to have also included Paris with the Amand plurality garnered from Brantford itself and, I agree, the Six Nations reserve which had a typically poor turnout (only 20% in the largest poll on the reserve).
That being said, the result will indeed be tight and will be dependent on the last few days of the campaign. Because this mornings Ekos showed the Conservatives back in the lead in Ontario, I will give Brant to them by a handful of votes.
08 10 04 Objective Observer
Bear and Ape are the closest thing to correct here. This riding is too close to call. They called it for the Tories last time, and I, as a resident of Brant, called it for the Liberals. The Liberals indeed held on.
Those who talk about it going Conservative with all certainty clearly don't live in the riding. Largely rural? Hardly. Brant contains the City of Brantford, which has far more electors than the County of Brant. But the County of Brant isn't Conservative either. The Town of Paris and the Six Nations Reserve vote Liberal. As do many in the village of Burford.
At the end of the day, this riding is too close to call, though I selected Liberal since the too close to call option no longer exists, it seems. If Lloyd St. Amand wins, it's because of his personal popularity and hard word as an MP for this riding.
08 09 25 observer
In the last federal election (2006) Brant was the weakest Liberal victory over a Conservative, where the Ontario provincial percentages for popular support were 39.9% Lib, 35.1% CPC & 19.4% NDP.
Today, the best regional Liberal numbers show a tie in Ontario with the Conservatives at 37% - other polls have the Conservatives with as much as a 5% lead over the Liberals.
This time around the numbers at Nanos for Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, are way ahead of Liberal Stephane Dion.
While there is still a lot of time here, if the Liberals win in Brant - they better find a rabbit in their hat or the Conservatives will have to make a big mistake.
08 09 24 neo
Rebel fails to mention that Brant bucked the regional trend in the last campaign. Brant remained Liberal despite the Tory ‘wave’ that hit this area of the province. St. Amand is a solid MP, responds to constituent concerns. Local Tory's running another campaign of empty rhetoric. If signs mean anything, Liberals are ahead. It will be close but seat stays red.
08 09 23 Brant Liberal
Who will the CAW support locally? I know that answer and it won't make the Tories (or NDP) happy.
The riding is ready to be called Liberal regardless of national trends.
08 09 22 rebel
I will predict Brant for the Conservatives, but would first rebut suggestions of ?machines? in politics nowadays. The day of the individual canvass is virtually over (save a candidate with two or three helpers) let alone ?control? of whole wards of a city. Therefore I doubt that Levac's machine can deliver the riding to the federal candidate. Outside of his incumbant's virtues, I see little reason to give him more of an advantage than the current provincial-wide swing, which doesn't favour the Liberals.
08 09 11 Red Tim
Brant stays Liberal. The provincial and federal Liberals cooperate extremely well in Brant which helps in election after election. MPP Levac does have a machine which is in full gear to make sure it stays red. In addition, St. Amand is a hard working MP who is well respected as a fair and balanced elected official.
The tory candidate is a puppet for the tory central campaign, even going as far as stating he will comment on the Caledonia issue as the campaign progresses....meaning once Tory central campaign tells him what to say. The issue is too important for that kind of dodging and people in Brant see through that and will deliver the riding back to St. Amand.
08 09 11
One thing that is certain (I know this from personal experience) is that any Tory needs swing votes to win Brant federally or provincially. The Tory base is simply not large enough without them.
I won two elections in Brantford and those victories only happened because we won over disaffected Liberals and New Democrats. This is what Phil and his team have to do.
08 09 10 neo
Brant will remain a Liberal riding. St. Amand is well known and well respected in this community. Even non-Liberals respect his strong voice for Brant. St. Amand continues to speak out on local issues like loss of manufacturing jobs and native land claims. Conservative candidate suffered a fatal set back on the first day of the campaign. His campaign chair told CBC reporter that he could not speak to media until he spoke to Conservative headquarters. CBC and local paper run story about how local Tory Candidate has been muzzled. With no strong NDP candidate or team, riding will stay Liberal.
08 09 09 Gone Fishing
As mentioned, this is a largely rural riding.
How does this GROW Liberal vote given current conditions.
CTV tracking polls for the ‘Ontario Key Battleground’ ridings (which includes this one) is showing momentum for the conservatives.
If Conservative base is growing and this is a ‘base’ type of support riding than it stands to reason it has to grow as well. I can't see a Liberal swell for support in the current conditions. Several Liberal MPs ‘survived’ last time out. If there are similar labels of survival in the following campaign than some like this one will have fallen.
This should be at least TCTC sure it could change again but in interest of a fair forum, this needs to come off the Liberal Predicted.
-Less than 1000 votes difference last time
-Conservative momentum in early days of election
-Rural ridings going Conservative i.e. Huron Bruce which had a similarly popular liberal candidate last time barely squeak by with the strength of previous government incumbency
-Conservative gains in non-mega city ridings such as London West
The conservatives must at least have a shot here and early in an election surely that means this is TCTC ESCPECIALLY while lacking any Liberal momentum out there.
08 09 04 Brant Liberal
Allegedly St. Amand's weakness is the rural part of the riding (according to posters).
The President of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture is a Liberal Candidate out west. First chance he gets St. Amand should bring in the CFA Boss to stump Burford and Paris.
Everything else stays the same in Brant except the margin of victory which increases as the rural vote goes red!
08 05 24 Curley Larry and Moe
Many political pundits were surprised when Lloyd St. Amand survived the last election when his party was being turfed out of office. We have a clear explanation for the St.Amand win and why his strategy will work again. St.Amand survived last time because he was able to develop strong contacts with the unions in Brant. Union support kept soft Liberals from doing what Jack Layton asked and lending their vote to the NDP for one election. St.Amand has spent the last three years working to keep his union backing and has it again going into the next election. As other have mentioned, it also helps St.Amand to have close ties with provincial Liberal MPP Dave Levac. Levac has one of the best ground organizations going and will have his team out there working for St.Amand. For these reasons, we see St.Amand winning again.
08 04 09 Daniel
I really shouldn't feed the flames, but some things said here need to be refuted. Our resident political hydra seems to think that Brantford is 'too urban' and 'too progressive' to ever vote Conservative - an idea that's uproariously laughable, considering a couple of things. First, the Conservatives nearly WON here in 2006, and (if we believe our fellow commenter's assertion) were apparently up against one of the best political machines in southwestern Ontario. If the CPC can nearly defeat such a 'formidable' opponent in a year where they won only a weak minority, then with only marginally better performance, they should be able to take this riding - or at least have a shot at doing so - should they not? Secondly, the Conservatives have already won a number of seats that are FAR more urban than this one (in Winnipeg, Ottawa, Quebec City, and yes, Calgary and Edmonton), and a large number of seats with a degree of urbanity comparable to this one (Barrie, Oshawa, Burlington, Peterborough, Niagara Falls, and St. Catharines, just to name a few in Ontario alone). With these facts in mind, any notion that a seat like Brant is totally out of reach for the Conservatives is utterly ridiculous. Brant isn't Toronto Centre, people.
08 03 15 Curley, Larry and Moe
Sorry to rain on Daniel's parade but a win in Brant just isn't in the cards for the Conservatives. What you have to know about this riding is that Brant MPP, Dave Levac has one of the best political machines in southwest Ontario. The Levac crew saved St.Amand when the Liberals were going down in 2006 and are currently working to make sure he holds the seat again. The Brant Conservatives just can't come close to matching the Levac machine in Brant. Sure there will be as other have mentioned the redneck vote in Paris and the little bit of vote in Burford but when matched against what St.Amand can generate in the way of support in Brantford, it just doesn't count. The Conservatives need a very strong NDP candidate in order to really go after St.Amand that isn't going to happen in this election. The NDP are dead in Brant so it stays Liberal.
08 03 13 Doug The Slug
When it comes to the riding of Brant, you have to think of the actual voters living there. In the past couple years the current government has done nothing to deal with urban issues in this province.
That being the case, why would the Conservatives increase their level of support in Brant? Just doesn't makes sense when a MP like St.Amand clearly demonstrated he has a personal appeal in this riding that allowed him to survive in 2006. Brant will re-elect St. Amand.
08 03 12 Peg Leg Pete
I have no idea where saucy Daniel is from but he knows nothing about the Brant riding. Danny claims that Brant has a ‘significant rural component’ making it possible for the Conservatives to win. If you look at a map of Brant you see a huge rural area including Burford and Paris with Brantford a small dot in the middle. The facts are that Brantford makes up 70 per cent of the population in this riding which is why St.Amand hung on last time. With the Conservatives and the Liberal in a tie (within the margin of error in every poll) there's no reason to think St.Amand won't survive, especially when he doesn't have to worry about the NDP. I stick with my prediction. Sorry Danny.
08 03 06 Daniel
Oooh boy... If we use the three (one?) Liberal predictors' logic below, then the only people who vote Liberal are upper-middle class city dwellers, since rural 'rubes' and 'angry poor people' are apparently too dumb and agitated to support the Liberal party. Thankfully for the Liberals, this isn't the case (if it was, they'd have lost this riding by now). Brantford may be a somewhat 'progressive city', but it's no latté liberal monoculture, that's for sure. As such, I wouldn't write this seat off as a Liberal hold this early - polling results have been as mixed as usual as of late, and seats like this will be high on the CPC hit list. Lloyd St. Amand certainly doesn't seem to be the type to dramatically rise above his party's fortunes, either. Furthermore, the CPC doesn't need to engulf Brantford in a blue tide to flip this seat; they just need to do mildly better than they did last time, which is more than possible. That said, this WAS one of the few seats with a significantly rural component in southwestern Ontario to remain Liberal in the last election, so there's certainly a more resilient Liberal base here than in other nearby seats. My prediction is that, if either the Liberals or Conservatives are doing even marginally better nationally in the the next election than in 2006, that party will win this seat. It's a dull prediction, but the most likely outcome.
08 02 29 Peg Leg Pete
‘Doug the Slug’ is right on the money when he says the hicks in Burford and Paris are right wing. They really are but St.Amand survives this redneck part of his riding by putting together a strong campaign team and dragging every vote possible out of vote-rich Brantford. Lloyd doesn't have the strongest personality in the world so ‘experts’ tend to write him off. The last election victory, under very tough circumstances proved St.Amand is a survivor and there's no reason to think he won't be successful again. I predict St.Amand wins by 1500 votes this time. The hicks in Burford won't be happy!
08 02 22 Doug the Slug
The Brant riding is dominated by the city of Brantford which like Guelph has always been a progressive town without much of a base for the NDP. The Conservatives will get the redneck vote in hick towns like Paris and Burford but that won't make any difference when the results come in from the Brantford polls. St. Amand is well liked in Brantford and will increase his support this time with a bigger win than in 2006. The Conservatives can't find a good candidate in Brant because they know St. Amand can't lose.
08 02 09 Quick Draw
Phil McColeman is running for the CPC again here in Brant. The problem for Phil is that his party now trails the Grits in Ontario by 12 points and the NDP is being eaten up by the Green Party. St.Amand works hard in his riding and is building the same kind of reputation Brant MPP Dave Levac has. Levac will never lose Brant in a provincial election and St.Amand will put an end to McColeman's political career when he beats him bad in the next election. Brant is St. Amand country now.
08 02 02 A.S.
I wouldn't use the Mulroney PCs' failure to take Brant in '84 as a strike against the Tories now. After all, if the incumbent opponent were a Liberal rather than NDP eternal Derek Blackburn, PC probably *would* have won that year...
08 01 29 R.O.
There is 2 strong candidates running against the liberal mp here, so I suspect it will be a close race. Phil Mccoleman is running for conservatives again and he almost won it last election and ndp have former mp running not from brant but Hamilton I want to mention. And well riding didn’t vote anything but liberal recently federally it did elect an Ontario pc mpp back in the 95 election. Well that’s more of a historical fact now it does if nothing else show the riding can at times vote for other parties if right candidate is running and momentum is there.
08 01 23 seasaw
Should be an easy Liberal win. The last time a Tory won this riding was in 1958, '06 it was a close call due to a surge in NDP support, but that was mainly due to sponsorship scandal, it won't happen again this time. The riding's been Liberal with NDP winning here as well, but NDP support plummeted, since Broadbent left and Rae became premier and they haven't regained momentum. If the Tories didn't win it in the massive Mulroney sweep of '84, they're sure not going to this time.
07 12 14 I'm Always Right
St. Amand surprised a lot of people last time when he managed to hang on by 500 votes even though his party was going down. To many so called experts keep talking about a historic base for the NDP in Brant that will split the vote and let the Conservatives take it. Time for people to look at the last couple decades and see the NDP in a steep decline here to the point where it really is just a two way race. There won't be any change here as left leaning voters in Brant know that voting Liberal is the only way to keep the seat from the Tories. Small business is south west Ontario has been hit hard by the rapid rise of the Canadian dollar. The lack of action from the federal government on this crisis won't help them in ridings like this. I say the Liberals win her by 1000 votes this time.
07 11 15 R.O.
well this riding is one of the few in south western ontario where a liberal mp is running in Lloyd st Amand , brant might be near some tory strongholds but this riding will be a much closer race if previous result is any clue, feel its a riding which could go either way depending on election. the city of brantford and the large first nations community will have an affect on the outcome here. prediction will wait till election as all 3 parties likey will focus effort on this riding .
07 11 11 binriso
Well if the CPC can?t pick this one up, they?re in deep trouble. The strong NDP candidate might split the vote with the Liberals too much so that the CPC sneak in.
07 08 06 A.S.
The Tories may be eyeing Brant now the way they eyed something like Northumberland-Quinte West after '04, i.e. the ‘one that got away’. And, perhaps, blame the NDP; while Lynn Bowering lost only 3/4 of a percentage point, the actual number of polls she won plummeted precipitously--because the Liberal vote firmed up in those ‘NDP areas’! (Buzz Hargrove-dictated support-your-Liberal-incumbent, perhaps? That may explain the ‘Ford closure’ argument, then.) Now, for a different reason, it might be fun to watch how the NDP fares now--put it this way, while Ian Deans is no Broadbent, he actually might have a better chance than Ed Schreyer did...
07 05 12 R.D.
Well, this race just got even more interesting with former Hamilton area MP and MPP Ian Deans is attempting to make a comeback for the NDP in Brant. The Brantford Expositor reported that he was acclaimed as the Brant NDP candidate this past Thursday 5/10.
Brant was an NDP seat until 1993.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
In 2006 we were predicting Brant to narrowly fall to the Conservatives. Well the Liberals scraped through with 500 votes and 1 percentage point. We're of the opinion that job cuts at Ford that were announced the day of the election may have had a hand at costing the CPC this riding (all the Canadian jobs lost were at the Brantford plant). As for which way it will go this time, it all depends on who runs the better race when there is actually a campaign. Another riding to watch and see!

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