Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-29 20:59:34

Constituency Profile


Bains, Navdeep

Douglas, Dianne

Grewal, Jagdish

Mercer, Heather

Tharani, Naresh

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1110.30%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (98/182 polls, 48.46% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Eve Adams

   (50/182 polls, 33.13% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Bal Gosal

   (34/182 polls, 18.42% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Brad Butt


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15 10 13 PY
I echo Dr. Bear's sentiments, as this one can definitely be declared already. Tory voters will likely sit at home rather than embarrass themselves by voting for Grewal by default or in defiant protest.
The endorsements of both the Toronto Star and former Mississauga mayor Hazel McCallion might just sway undecideds and swing voters alike.
Finally, it bears repeating that Navdeep Bains was a popular MP and is still as visible as he's ever been. How he DOESN'T win is beyond me.
Let's be clear: Jagdish Grewal will not be able to convince soft Liberal supporters to make the switch to him and he will not somehow be the balance of power in a potential minority government. He is a liability that neither Harper nor campaign manager/senior advisor Lynton Crosby could accept, period. Anyone who believes that Grewal is the equivalent of a John Nunziata or an André Arthur is sadly mistaken.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
People thinking that Grewal will win because he is homophobic and got dumped by the conservatives are completely clueless. The vast majority of Canadian voters despise bigotry in any form and that is especially true in diverse urban communities.
All that aside, this was one of the closest loses in 2011; the liberals are soaring in Ontario; the popular previous incumbent is the liberal candidate and now Hurricane Hazel has endorsed Trudeau. Done and done! Easy liberal win.
15 10 08 Interested Observer
So his name still appears on the ballot, but the party disavowed him. He could actually still win. (Not saying this is likely, I don't think it was before and it's certainly not likely now.)
Wouldn't it be kind of fun if he won this riding, and there was a tie in seat numbers, let's say 125:125 Conservative:Lib? (Which, by the way, is as likely in this election as any in history, the polls keep flipping the leader, could end in a tie.) The disavowed candidate could be the difference in which party has the most seats. The political theatre would be awesome.
15 10 07 SC
Just to clarify, Grewal will still be on the ballot. But with the Tories throwing him under the bus, he won't have any campaign apparatus worth mentioning. Definite Liberal win now.
15 10 07 carpentier
Independent candidate Gosal will now take the riding. The sympathy will move vote to him. Harper should have said his views are acceptable, but he sided with anti-family agenda for 10 years now to give signals to gay lobby. I wonder whether he wants this riding to be taken by Gopal as independent on a wave of sympathy or simply signals to supporters the debate is over. Anyway, he created a big wave for a former Conservative, and I expect Liberals switch to him massively. This will not be reflected in the polls since legal system suppresses pro-family sentiments, this will be a protest vote. Now there is a real race here.
15 10 06 Dr. Bear
The Conservatives have dumped Grewal for his homophobic comments. With no other viable challengers, this is now safely Liberal.
15 10 06 S!
Conservative candidate Jagdish Grewal is out after advocate straight therapy for gay youth. Definitely a Liberal win now. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-conservative-candidate-jagdish-grewal-gay-youth-1.3259324
15 10 06
With Jagdish Grewal out of the race, this one's all but over. The Conservatives may still register some votes on election day, but with no candidate the swing votes are likely all coming to Bains.
15 10 05 Jeff S
Forum poll has Liberals up by 15 over the CPC. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2399/conservatives-and-ndp-strive-for-second/
15 10 06 JC
And I'd say Grewal is done, the article on gay conversion therapy that he push surfaced and the Tories have disowned him as an official candidate, he's done.
15 10 06 Claude
The withdrawal of Grewal from the race seals this one for the Liberals.
15 10 06 Steve
Jagdish just shot himself in the foot with the avocation of gay conversion therapy. Guess he doesn't want to get elected!
15 10 06 Tom Sawyer
The Conservative Party has just dumped their candidate Jagdish Grewal over his homophobic comments. I thinks this changes things a little.
15 10 06 Monkey Cheese
The Liberals have a strong candidate with former MP Navdeep Bains. The Conservative candidate had found himself in recent trouble over homophobic remarks. That may play well to the social conservative Patrick Brown types, but it's not going to win over the swing voters the Conservatives desperately need to hold on here. The politics of fear are signs of a desperate campaign and that's not going to win over the more centrist voters. Given that Navdeep Bains was a respected MP and the Liberals are polling much higher in Ontario, this should be a Liberal gain.
15 10 06 Monkey Cheese
An update to my previous post. The Conservatives dropped Jagdish Grewal as their candidate for his homophobic remarks, but his name will still appear on the ballot. There is no way the Liberals aren't winning this one now.
15 10 01 Geo
I think this one is too close to call right now. The Liberal have a strong candidate, but Jagdish Grewal is running a strong campaign. I wouldn't count out a Conservative gain.
15 08 16 A.S.
The sad thing about Navdeep Bains isn't just that he lost in 2011; it's that when it comes to next-gen Indo-Canadian promising political cosmopolitanism, his thunder was stolen by the NDP's Jagmeet Singh. Though Singh's now provincial, so Bains has the federal territory all to himself now...on behalf of the *third* party, unfortunately. Still, he couldn't have asked for a more compatible seat to run in; pretty much all the worst parts of his old seat carved out, the best part of Miss-Streetsville spliced in, and the addition of third-place-CPC Malton where Bains' ethnicity is an obvious plus. (Never mind that the Jagmeet-boosted NDP tokenly squeaked ahead of the Libs in Malton in 2011--indeed, with a non-Asian candidate, the Dippers are practically in an inverse situation from the past in the present Mississauga-Malton race.)
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Without getting into the who tragic irony of Eve Adams, there is no way the Conservatives are winning here. Former popular MP Navdeep Bains is the Liberal candidate and he only lost because of Ignatieff. I can't see him losing. Mr. Bains is heading to Ottawa on October 20th.
15 08 04 R.O.
This was mostly Eve Adams old riding although heavily redistributed . Navdeep Bains had been mp for the area before and had been winning by large margins until his sudden defeat in 2011. Its likely a riding the liberals have an advantage in as there candidate higher profile but still an area that could remain competitive this election and ndp vote is very tough to predict in this area. Normally not much of a factor but got 20% in redistributed riding in 2011.
15 07 31 Woodworth
Navdeep Bains is liked well. And people of this riding probably regret electing Eve Adams. This will go Liberal.
15 03 28 monkey
This will easily return to the Liberal fold. Even if the Tories do as well as last time, the NDP vote will go down and that will go mostly to the Liberals.
15 03 24 JC
This is returning to the Liberal Fold, Bains was well liked in the previous riding and lost because of Ignatieff.
15 03 24 Fairview Resident
Navdeep Bains lost to Eve Adams by nearly 10% in 2011. The redistributed results in Mississauga-Malton put the Liberals within 1%, making the riding so much more favourable to them that Eve Adams didn't even want to bother seeking the nomination here as a Conservative. Although Bains isn't the incumbent, his name recognition, history representing the majority of the new riding, and serious voter remorse among his former constituents give him the closest thing to an incumbency boost that anyone will enjoy in this riding. The Liberals have now closed the 20 point deficit in Ontario. With Bains' name recognition and significant head start, this is easily a Liberal gain - even if the Liberals lose some ground again in Ontario.
15 03 19 Jason
This is one of those ridings that the Liberals lost only because their support collapsed in the last two weeks of the 2011 election. Unless the Tories lead the Liberals by 15 points in Ontario, the Liberals should pick this one up.
Former MP Navdeep Bains is running in the Liberal banner while the Tories have not nominated a candidate in riding yet.

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