Prediction Changed
11:15 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Ambler, Stella
Chilelli, Frank
Malhi, Gurbax S.
Pajot, Mark
New Democratic
Puniya, Jash

Hon. Gurbax S. Malhi

2006 Result:
Gurbax S. Malhi **
John Sprovieri
Cesar Martello
Ernst Braendli
Frank Chilelli

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 03
I expect Malhi to win 45-55% of the vote.
Stella Ambler will be destroyed here.
Stella Ambler is putting zero effort in the new development areas of this riding. She has perhaps 1-20 signs in these new areas.
Malhi is a very popular man in this area and his support in the South Asian community and other immigrant communities is absolute.
Very few signs there and she is unknown to the immigrant community. Malhi is well one of the key figures in the community as he was one the first South Asians to become an MP.
Ambler I think is hoping for a massive showing of conservatives in the older Bramalea areas.
However Malhi has Malton-Springdale-Castlemore-Gore dominated completely.
Even in Bramalea, Malhi has a lot of support amoung regular Liberals.
Malhi is not even trying at all really.
08 09 26 mandeep
Stella Ambler is trying to win this riding without the support of the South Asian Community.
I have seen hardly any signs in South Asian dominated areas and in even in Conservative friendly areas, Malhi has an equal amount of signs.
Malhi's signs are everywhere and he will win a 45-50% majority here easily.
08 09 19 Bill Mayer
I believe this is a lock for the incumbent. He has a history in this riding and has served as an M.P. in this area for 15+ years. Even though he may not be famous or have the credentials to land a big job if somehow Dion slid through and won, he is someone the Liberals trust to hold the riding. I guess due to the South Asian population trusting the Liberals, all of Brampton and its surrounding area will be Red. One additional point, Malhi is huge in the South Asian population, i.e. holding functions, going to temples, etc.
08 09 08 Manny
Malhi is dominating the race especially in the minority areas.
08 09 03 JJ
In any other context Malhi would be a disastrous candidate for the Liberals. However, his experience and standing in the community, especially amongst South Asian residents, make him a lock against his sacrificial lamb opponents.
08 01 30 John Johnson
The Conservatives are going to have this as their target riding and I can't blame them, Gurbax Malhi is a weak candidate for the Liberals. Still I have to put this in the Liberal column for now as the GTA is not exactly friendly neighbourhood just yet for the CPC.
07 05 08 A.S.
Malhi's the only Liberal to go from an '04 plurality to a '06 majority, but what actually happened is interesting. In '04, his Tory opponent was ex-MPP Raminder Gill; in '06, it was municipal councillor John Sprovieri. In South Asian-dominated Malton as well as the fast-suburbanizing Gore (the latter which may be why the Liberal share went up at large, Malhi's share and advantage went up. In Bramalea, however, he lost significant ground to CPC. CPC won 22 polls in '04; that number was tripled in '06. Thus, while Grits went up only a point in share and Tories only two points, the seat markedly ‘polarized’--and NDP + Green, no longer the prime ‘non-Asian’ option, lost ground by default. Hmmmm. (Something like that's happened before; note the outsize Reform result here in '93, Malhi's first election.) Anyway, esp. with the Gore continuing to grow and grow, it remains advantage Malhi--but then again, it's that kind of growth Harper's targeting, whatever the ethnicity...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Gurbax Malhi may not be a household name or the strongest of candidates, but this is a pretty safe Liberal riding. For all the talk of Tory gains in the 905 belt, I cannot see this one falling to the Tories.

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