Prediction Changed
11:15 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Gurbax S. Malhi

2006 Result:
Gurbax S. Malhi **
25348
John Sprovieri
16367
Cesar Martello
6343
Ernst Braendli
1721
Frank Chilelli
233

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 01 30 John Johnson
24.138.129.52
The Conservatives are going to have this as their target riding and I can't blame them, Gurbax Malhi is a weak candidate for the Liberals. Still I have to put this in the Liberal column for now as the GTA is not exactly friendly neighbourhood just yet for the CPC.
07 05 08 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Malhi's the only Liberal to go from an '04 plurality to a '06 majority, but what actually happened is interesting. In '04, his Tory opponent was ex-MPP Raminder Gill; in '06, it was municipal councillor John Sprovieri. In South Asian-dominated Malton as well as the fast-suburbanizing Gore (the latter which may be why the Liberal share went up at large, Malhi's share and advantage went up. In Bramalea, however, he lost significant ground to CPC. CPC won 22 polls in '04; that number was tripled in '06. Thus, while Grits went up only a point in share and Tories only two points, the seat markedly ‘polarized’--and NDP + Green, no longer the prime ‘non-Asian’ option, lost ground by default. Hmmmm. (Something like that's happened before; note the outsize Reform result here in '93, Malhi's first election.) Anyway, esp. with the Gore continuing to grow and grow, it remains advantage Malhi--but then again, it's that kind of growth Harper's targeting, whatever the ethnicity...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Gurbax Malhi may not be a household name or the strongest of candidates, but this is a pretty safe Liberal riding. For all the talk of Tory gains in the 905 belt, I cannot see this one falling to the Tories.



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