Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:27 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:39 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Previous Submissions:

  • Mar & Apr 04

    (Links? See sponsorship details.)
    (Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
    Green Party/Parti Vert:
    Otto Casanova
    PC Party/Parti PC:
    Peter Creighton
    Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
    Wajid Khan
    Manjinder Rai
    Nina Tangri

    Population 2001
    Number of electors 2000
    Nombre d'électeurs

    Incumbents/Les députés:
    Brampton West-Mississauga (26.1%)
    Colleen Beaumier
    Mississauga West (73.9%)
    Hon. Steve Mahoney

    2000 Result/Résultats:
    22,724 63.70%
    7,453 20.89%
    3,784 10.61%
    1,140 3.20%
    571 1.60%

    Brampton West-Mississauga
    (31/196 polls, 18020/98497 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

    Mississauga West
    (117/204 polls, 50929/90008 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

  • Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
    Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
    Mississauga-Streetsville remembers Steve Mahoney so Liberal Wajid Khan gets the splashback and Tory Nina Tangri gets the gold.
    23/06/04 Aileen
    Email: Carlsonail@aol.com
    I recently was reading the Mississauga News profile on Mississauga-Streetsville and I am confused why someone who lives in North York would want to run here. His car dealership is not even in Mississauga. He was parachuted in-quote by Mississauga News. He is not an incumbent and this riding is basically gone to the Tories. A poll released today shows the Liberals and Conservatives running neck and neck here in Ontario. The 905 region is generally traditional Tory area. Add Khan in the equation and the result is a major win for Tangri. Tune in tomorrow on CBC newsworld where Khan and Tangri will debate and you see the better candidate.
    21/06/04 Jason
    Email: jasonmickeyd@yahoo.com
    The polls in the globe and mail say the 905 belt is neck and neck. Khan is not an incumbent and that will probably cost him %5 at least at the expense of Tangri. Voters in this riding are not going to vote for someone who lives in Thornhill(khan). These factors will help Tangri because everyone knows this riding goes Liberal or Conservative-never NDP. Tangri also has the name recognition-remember last year's provincial election. I recently watched to rogers debate on T.V and Khan literally sidestepped every question. Tangri performed a mediocore job and must be labelled the winner considering the Green party guy confused the hell out of me and no other candidate showed up. Khan is running a desperate campaign by using massive signs everywhere and atleast 2 signs at each house. I have also seen some Tangri signs missing making things look a little suspcious. In the end I predict 48% Tangri, 41% Khan and 8% NDP with the others making up the rest.
    10/06/04 Name
    Email: [hidden]
    If Khan camp had a slow start to this campaign, I certainly haven't noticed. Just few days after the election call there was someone at my door with a Liberal pamphlet. Yesterday, I received a phone call in my native language (very impressive) asking if I'd support a lawn sign on my property. Haven't heard anything from any other camps.
    06/06/04 A.A.
    Email: [hidden]
    It's important not to jump to premature poll predictions based on sign numbers just a week after an election call. More importantly, Tangri's initial advantage is perhaps more attributable to the fact that she ran in this riding provincially just six months ago (or at least part of this riding, since the provincial election had different riding boudaries). Tangri knew where her support resided for about half the riding, thus the head start on sign locations. That being said, look around now. Khan has dramatically picked up his visibility in the second week of the campaign. So, Tangri's upperhand combined with, perhaps, sluggish organizing by Khan's campaign staff resulted in this early perception. If sign locations mean anything (a debatable proposition in itself), Tangri's advantage has dissipated in the past five to seven days. As Khan steps up his canvassing in the coming weeks, expect his visibility to grow even more. Signs aside, this race is shaping up to be a close one.
    04/06/04 Drae
    Email: [hidden]
    After visiting the campaign office and cruising around the riding I think this should clearly be listed as a Conservative win. David I. was way out to lunch with his earlier prediction, Nina is a great candidate and she appears to have the most organized and hardest working team in Mississauga. In contrast, the Erindale riding will be close judging from the signs and what i have seen in Decherts office. It appears to be just a bunch of young conservatives that have no idea how to organize a parade let alone a federal campaign. Unless the polls shift drastically look for Nina win by a larger number than dechert has signs.
    03/06/04 Victor A.
    Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
    Wajid all the way. The CP candidate could not have been any weeker and her yet another attempt to get elected on some level can be considered just as desperate as Tony Clement's. I really feel sorry for Nina because it all looks very opportunist to me. This riding has a non-Canadian born population of 44 % of which the South Asians, the Chinese and the Polish are overwhelmingly behind Khan and the Liberal party of Canada, I wonder where would Mrs Tangri look for support? Furthemore, don't underestimate Mr. Khan, he has a strong entrepreneurship experience, community support and even public sector experience that makes him an excellent candidate. Knock out win for Wajid.
    01/06/04 Robert B.
    Email: [hidden]
    Consevative lawn signs clearly outnumber those of the Liberals in my riding. This will be a Conservative pick up.
    01/06/04 Andre
    Email: [hidden]
    Tangri has the edge. She ran for the PCs provincially in october, so she has more name recognition than khan.
    08/05/04 Lily J.
    Email: Jonesl@rogers.com
    Khan is nothing compared to Mahoney or Beaumier. I expect a very small victory for the Conservatives at this point. During the election campaign, things can change very easily. Many people may be angry with the feds with the very high gas prices and in Mississauga there is no exception. For Streetsville to remain Liberal, the Liberals would have to go up at least 5 points nationally, the anti-Harper ads will have to work and the Conservatives have to do something really stupid!
    03/05/04 Westminster System
    Email: westminstersystem@hotmail.com
    Khan's claim to (political) fame is signing up some five thousand or so people to take out Liberal cards to support Paul Martin. He has proven his mettle… shooting fish in the proverbial barrel. Who *didn't* support Paul Martin? Uh, before he became Prime Minister at least. (It was especially easy to support him if his campaign would buy your membership, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, winning his first general election in your own name is gonna be much tougher on Mr. Khan. Ask Warren Kinsella. If he's returning calls…
    02/05/04 Jeremy M.
    Email: jeremyburn@rogers.com
    I suspect this riding will differ substantially to the numbers for Ontario in the next election. First, this is the 905-region where the majority are homeowners. Secondly, no one knows who Khan is. I don't expect Tangri to win by a lot, but a win is a win. Conservative-47, Liberal- 43, NDP-4. Others 6!
    01/05/04 B.M.S.
    Email: [hidden]
    Even as a life long Conservative that lives nearby, I strongly agree with Liberal predictions for this riding. Many of the Tory predictors below are just disgruntled about the parachute candidate (and rightly so), which is adding a little emotional wishful thinking in their guessing. However, I cannot see the people in this riding NOT voting overwhelmingly for the Liberals. The fact is that Mississauga South is the only riding in this city that has ever bucked a Liberal tidal wave in favour for the Tories. It is right on the lake, with huge trees, mansions, and wealthy people. However, middle class surburban ridings are considered 'bellwhether' ridings and this would be one. If this is indeed made out of Mahoney's and Beaumier's old ridings, the voting history clearly shows Liberals in a cake walk. Mahoney has always gotten about 31,000 votes, doubled the combined Alliance/PC totals of 16,000. Beaumier got practically the same results. It's one thing to say that Beaumier is in trouble against a superstar candidate like Tony Clement but he's even in for a huge challenge. It would have to take Mayor Hazel McCallion as the Tory candidate to move this riding into the "too close" column at all. And Nina Tangri is no McCallion or Clement. People in Mississauga vote for the winning party and leader, not candidate, and Khan will undeservingly be handed the MP title. The only suburban ridings surrounding Toronto that are actually winnable for the CPC at this moment are wealthy cities or ones with rural elements. Oakville, Burlington, Oak Ridges-Markham, Oshawa and (maybe) Bramalea-Gore-Malton are them.

    Previous Submissions:

  • Mar & Apr 04

  • Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
    Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
    Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

    © 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster