Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Constituency Profile


Butt, Brad

Crombie, Bonnie

Hill, Chris

Naqvi, Aijaz

Bonnie Crombie

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • brampton-west-mississauga (31/196 Polls)
  • mississauga-west (117/204 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 Johnny Walker
    This riding looks like it will be closer than last time when the Tories stayed home and didn't vote for Khan. That being said, this riding is less likely than Erindale or South to go blue. Streetsville will go blue if Harper gets his majority. The NDP surge won't have an effect in this riding though.
    11 04 30 Villageinthecity
    Its fair to say the Rob Ford factor, as well as the NDP surge have definitely helped out in this riding. Although previously this riding was Liberal, many of the usual 'champaign socialists' who have voted for Bonnie last election are doubting it this time because of the left-shifted Liberal platform. + Brad is a good candidate who will better reflect this well-off riding in a professional manner- better than red heels to say the least :)
    I'm seeing Brad take this one with a small margin, but will definitely take it
    11 04 27 R.O.
    if polls are accurate some predictions for Ontario my need to be re-evaluated , liberals now at somewhere between 25% - 30 % in ontario , that is less than what dion got in 08 and harper doing better than 08 . so a riding won by 10 % is now possibly in play depending on how final days turn out . the race has now turned into bizare harper vs Layton contest and that does not help liberals in close races like these. Bonnie Crombie has the advantage of incumbency and personally likeable . but Brad Butt has advantage of being candidate for party thats winning Ontario and that may just send some conservative candidates in 905 to Ottawa .
    11 04 26 Teddy Boragina
    Polls are showing the Conservatives are gaining much more in the GTA (in Ontario) than outside of it. It might be the ‘Rob Ford Factor’. Not that Rob Ford is some kind of campaign God, rather I consider him a bit of a bumbler, but that he managed to stumble into some urban tax-rage that was already in existence. These people seem to be leaning towards Harper, and thus, ridings like this become possible targets.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    This was always going to be an uphill battle for the Tories to win here and they haven't done enough to realistically take this. Also I don't see them making big gains amongst ethnic voters. Ethnic voters may not vote Liberal as strongly as they did in the past, but they still are wary of the Tories. They main win the non-ethnic vote if they haven't already, but not by a strong enough margin to take this. The real focus in Mississauga will be on Mississauga-Erindale or Mississauga South which are likely be very tight races.
    11 04 14 Fred
    Sue McFadden was forced to announce that she wasn't going to run Federally during her municipal campaign. Now Mississauga-Streetsville has been served with her campaign manager Brad Butt as the Federal Conservative candidate.
    Brad has run Federally before in 2000 for the Canadian Alliance in Mississauga-South and lost to Paul Szabo by more than 10,000 votes.
    Brad will likely be endorsed by some Mississauga city councillors such as Sue McFadden and George Carlson, but this won't make up for the rapport that Bonnie Crombie has in the Riding. Crombie is well-liked and has worked hard for her citizens. She has also been extremely active in the House of Commons, particularly for a rookie MP.
    Mississauga-Streetsville is Liberal as shown by the support MPP Bob Delaney got in the last provincial election. Crombie should win by a raw margin of 5,000 votes. This may fluctuate slightly depending on national polls, but this riding will remain Liberal.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    In all likelihood this should stay Liberals as Bonnie Crombie is a strong MP, but if the Tories make big gains amongst ethnic voters this could still turn in their favour. Nonetheless Mississauga-Erindale and Mississauga South are probably the most likely Mississauga ridings to change hands, but the Tories have a better chance of picking this up than Mississauga-Brampton South or Mississauga East-Cooksville.
    11 03 28 CanEHdian
    Crombie has been one of the hardest working MPs for the last 2.5 years since being elected in '08. She is gregarious, outgoing and very personable. These qualities alone, and her strong track record in the community, will make her very hard to beat. If the Conservatives cared at all about this riding, like they do in Mississauga-Erindale and Brampton Springdale, they would have chosen a stronger candidate than Brad Butt. Not to knock Butt, but he will have a hard time going toe to toe with the vivacious Crombie. In the '08 campaign Crombie took the riding by just over 4,700 votes. The Wajid Khan factor is an unknown variable, but I'm not sure Butt can swing 5,000 votes away from the LIberals. If Crombie could win with Dion as leader, I think she's in good shape with Ignatieff at the helm.
    11 03 23 whoisbradbutt
    While Mrs. Crombie had a rather easy slide to victory in this past election, with a little help from Mississauga's least favourite, no-name, floor crosser Mr. Khan, this election shouldn't be altogether much harder for this historically Liberal stronghold. This is a riding largely dominated by voting immigrants that came to Canada under Liberal immigration policies. As Mayor Mccallion frequently states Mrs Crombie is ‘Mississauga's hardest working politician.’ Although the Conservatives granted the Liberals a further gift in this riding by electing the aptly named Mr. Butt... excuse me who? I think I've seen him on rogers TV once or twice spouting Conservative talking points so vehemently his face was a perfect Liberal ‘red’. I can imagine the campaign signs now ‘We have a BUTT for you!’ I'm looking forward to conservative's going door to door attempting to sell they're very own ‘Butt.’ This one's staying red, and no I don't mean Mr. Butt's face when he looses.
    10 02 06 R.O.
    This has been one of the more frustrating GTA ridings for the conservatives and continued to be when Sue Mcfadden decided to stick with municipal politics in Mississauga and gave up the conservative nomination. which has a been a problem for some other federal candidates in Ontario as well since were having municipal elections this fall and some candidates have to decide what there doing and which election there going to be running in as they can't really run in both. but i'm sure the conservatives being the incumbent government won't have much trouble finding a new candidate for the riding. but that won't be former mp Wajid Khan as from what i read a few months back he has decided to leave politics more or less. and when considering the fact he wasn't able to hold the riding during 2008 a very good year for the conservatives he likely couldn't win it back anyways now that the liberals have the incumbent advantage again.
    09 12 03 Alan K
    I just found out that Sue McFadden was one of 7 city councillors who voted to have a $2 million inquiry into Hazel McCallion's alleged conflict of interest involving some land deal brokered by her son. If McFadden thinks that people will think she is some high-minded person of integrity by attacking the reputation of Mayor McCallion and will vote for her as MP, McFadden is living in McLalaland.
    09 09 07 A.S.
    What an infuriating paradox for GTA Tories: it was the Liberal party label that lifted Wajid Khan into local electability; yet judging from neighbouring results, perhaps it was now-Tory Wajid Khan who dragged CPC *away* from local electability. For such reasons, I won't jump to conclusions about Miss-Streets' enduring Grit safety...
    09 09 03 Hazel4eva
    Crombie won this riding in one of the hardest elections for Liberals in the past few decades. In an election with a stronger leader and Liberals up in the polls, she should have no problem securing a second term. The conservatives have yet to set a date for their nomination meeting and there are currently only two announced candidates. Wajid Khan was shown the door in the last election but will probably be able to win the nomination because of his muslim support within the riding. The other candidate is a female city councillor named Sue Mcfadden. The only two tibits I know about her are her close ties with fellow city councilor and past MP Carolyn Parish and the fact that during the last election she became a member of the Liberal Party of Canada to support Bonnie Crombie in her nomination meeting.
    09 08 30 R.O.
    Saw an interesting story on the pundits guide on this riding and it said the conservatives have found a city councillor who will likely run for them in this riding and that a nomination meeting will take place in september. the city councillor being Sue Mcfadden and it even says she has allready meet with Stephen Harper about this. so with a new conservative candidate in this riding it could get a bit more interesting. although the liberals with mp Bonnie Crombie have the advantage its not out of the question for this one to be competitive again given some of the closer results here over the years.
    09 08 25 Ryan
    This riding's voted Liberal for as long as it's existed - even with the poor Liberal showing in the last election, Crombie won by 10% of the total vote. I don't think the Conservatives have done anything in the past eleven months to change the minds of residents here.
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Khan as a conservative got fewer votes in 2008 than Raminder Gill got in 2006. In a year where Liberal voters stayed home and allowed CPC and NDP victories in traditional Liberal strongholds, this speaks volumes. People did not like Khan's shenanigans and they made sure the message was loud and clear. Now with a stronger Liberal leader and fortunes a bit better, this riding will not do anything but stay Liberal.

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