Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:29:34

Constituency Profile


Cahn, Lisa Julie

Garneau, Marc

Hoffman, Rachel

Hughes, James

Quesnel, Simon

Sagala, Richard

Wheeler, Melissa Kate

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2710.61%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (123/212 polls, 55.64% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Marc Garneau

   (85/212 polls, 43.21% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Isabelle Morin

   (4/212 polls, 1.15% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Thomas Mulcair


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15 10 09 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/10/4) Lib 40%, NDP 33%, Con 10%, Green 10%, BQ 7%.
15 09 24 Dr.Bear
To respond to Marco Ricci's comment from August; as an Anglophone-Quebecer-transplant (with most of my family still in Montreal), everyone was caught up in Jack-o-mania back in 2011. He was something new; something different; something fresh and exciting. Couple that with the (and I quote my mother here) 'I don't like Iggy' sentiment, and it's no surprise that so many Anglophone Quebecers turned their back on the Liberals.
Then the orange crush happened and suddenly the NDP started pandering to separatists. Probably a wiser strategy in order to win power, but a spit in the face to the Anglophones who voted for them. Support for the NDP among Anglophones dropped quickly shortly after the 2011 election and hasn't really recovered.
As for now, many in my family and in the old hood like much of what the NDP are offering but they are (rightfully) distrusting of the party. There was a very good reason why Justin Trudeau brought up the Clarity Act in the first debate. It was to remind these voters where the two respective parties stand on the issue, and it's clear that the Liberals stand on the side of the issue supported by most non-Francophone Quebecers. That alone will ensure that the NDP don't have a prayer in this riding.
15 09 14 A.S.
This turf's pattern's been 'high NDP floor, low NDP ceiling'--or at least pre-Orange Crush, it was deemed latently (and in the 2008 byelection-turned-general-election that resulted in Marc Garneau, actually) targetable because it had more of an Anglo-guided 'Laurentian Consensus' feel a la Layton/Chow country in Toronto. But the actual way the Orange Crush worked out in 2011 was rather different--the NDP more as Bloc-killer than as Liberals-in-a-hurry--which helps explain why Garneau survived. Even so, the fact that there was such a thick-and-juicy nomination contest proves that the Dippers still aren't letting Garneau off the hook anytime soon--and that's in spite of the inherited NDG part (though not the whole riding) *also* staying Liberal in 2011. So if I'm not offering a prediction this time, it's as a bow to such insistence.
15 09 13 Marco Ricci
I found the comments of the 'NDGW' poster interesting. It's good to have feedback from voters in this riding and I thank him/her for the post.
However, I'm not sure I agree with NDGW that 'if Garneau pulls this off, it'll be him, not the Liberals.' Some of the evidence in the past few elections actually indicates the OPPOSITE. Garneau, although accomplished & respected, is not necessarily that great a campaigner.
1) In 2006 he lost his race in Vaudreuil-Soulanges. In fairness, it was a bad year for the Liberals because of the Sponsorship Scandal, but the fact is that his 'star' candidacy wasn't able to help the Liberals there.
2) He then asked for a safe Liberal seat in 2008 in Westmount-Ville Marie. Although he won by a 2-1 margin over the NDP's Lagac?-Dowson, he basically got the same vote share that retiring Liberal MP Lucienne Robillard received in the previous election.
3) Then in 2011, Garneau nearly went down when he only held on by about 600 votes during the Orange Wave. The Orange Wave was not his fault, BUT of the 7 Liberal MP's to survive in Qu?bec, Garneau won by the smallest margin of any of them. (And was actually projected defeated by CTV's Lisa LaFlamme at one point).
Qu?bec journalist Chantal H?bert wrote a piece on Garneau during the Liberal leadership in 2012. She said that while Garneau is a smart man, his electoral track record is not the greatest. She said that Justin Trudeau running in Papineau against a BQ MP in 2008 actually showed more strength than Garneau running in a safe seat in Westmount:
Anyway, flash forward to this year, and it could be argued that what is keeping Garneau competitive is the good National numbers that Justin Trudeau & the Liberals have in this election. And so, Garneau may get elected because of the strength of Trudeau & the Liberals, not the other way around.
15 09 02 Tony
I think Garneau could run for any party and still win. Solid person, that goes along way sometimes.
15 09 02 Marco Ricci
A new Mainstreeet/PostMedia poll shows that the Liberals are up 10 points in Montreal from 2011, while the Conservatives & BQ are down & NDP are stable.
If these numbers are accurate, it means the Liberals have the potential to win all their current QC seats by larger margins, and to take back a few others.
'NDP in virtual tie with Liberals on Montreal Island, Conservatives, Bloc slipping: poll'
15 08 27 PHYSASTR Master
Although the numbers would tend to put this into the TCTC category, I agree with previous posts about Garneau having a personal edge. For that reason, I support the current call here.
15 08 16 Marco Ricci
NDP nomination meeting was tonight. NDP chose Jim Hughes, former head of the Old Brewery Mission, over city councillor Peter McQueen.
It will be interesting to see whether Hughes is as well-known to the public as McQueen, and how he does against Marc Garneau, but it appears that he was better-organized with the NDP membership than McQueen at the nomination today.
15 08 13 NDGW
This isn't the Liberal riding I grew up in; if Garneau pulls this off (which seems likely), it'll be him, not the Liberals.
I was back here recently and chatted with a number of people about the election. Most are traditional Westmount Liberals, who have been voting Liberal since the last Trudeau. Every one of them, when I first asked them what they thought, said something along the lines of 'It's a tough choice: do I vote for the person or the party?'
Garneau lives in Westmount and frequently showed up to his son's hockey games while the House was sitting. His constituency mailers were mostly non-partisan. He shows up to community events, and pushes policies that fit well with the riding. People here would have really liked if he won the leadership.
But he didn't. They're not happy with the Liberal direction and leadership, but like Garneau. They seem happy with Mulcair, while the NDP seems ok, but they're not thrilled with it. They all know the 2011 election in Westmount-Ville Marie was close, so they know their vote matters for the first time in a generation. And they'll mull it over. The quality of the candidate for the NDP will matter on the margins, but this race is Garneau vs. Mulcair and Trudeau vs. NDP.
I talked to a friend who volunteered on Garneau's leadership campaign who's family were longtime Westmount Liberals and he and his whole family are now backing Mulcair. He said Garneau has great positions on issues but hasn't done anything with them, and wouldn't get to do much with Trudeau, who he thinks will run the PMO à la Harper, which is not unreasonable given how homogenous the party has become.
I think Garneau is more likely to pull this off, but given that the NDG portion added is just as much a wash as the Ville Marie portion taken away and last time it was just 600 votes apart, people consider this riding in play. The NDP is down about 7 points in Quebec from 2011 and the Liberals are up 7 points, but if that changes it's could go either way. Even in Westmount, with a provincial Liberal government most people aren't scared about LPC separation boogeymen anymore. Not TCTC, but don't be surprised if that changes.
15 08 12 Marco Ricci
Dr. Bear, I'm not sure one can predict that 'Absolutely no way the NDP can win this riding.' Based on their 2011 results, the NDP was able to win a lot of Anglophone votes under Layton -- that's how they picked up several ridings on West Island, and gave Marc Garneau such as close run.
I give Garneau the edge for now, and for as long as Liberal numbers under Trudeau remain above what Ignatieff got in 2011, but the NDP has the potential to be competitive again. The new NDP candidate here will be getting a late start against Garneau, however.
15 07 16 Dr Bear
Absolutely no way the NDP can win this riding. In 2011, before they became the party of choice for the soft-separatists, they had a really good chance. Now that they cater to the separatists (Sherbrooke declaration amongst other things) The Quebec anglophone community will never vote for them. Star candidate or not, being a BQ proxy is a deal-breaker.
15 07 09 Marco Ricci
The NDP may be taking this riding seriously now, and may end up with a high-profile candidate here, but it's also a little late in the game. It is July and the NDP still doesn't have a candidate in place. So whoever the NDP chooses will be getting a late start against Marc Garneau. That may not matter if the NDP can get another big wave in Québec in October, but one wonders why they left this riding so late in the game to get nominated.
15 06 23 RD
The NDP is taking this riding seriously and several high profile candidates are vying for the nomination, as reported by the Montreal Gazette: http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/high-profile-ndp-candidates-surface-in-n-d-g-westmount
15 05 28 B.W.
Marc Garneau has the incumbency advantage in this new riding since a majority of the Liberal votes come from Westmount while NDG is a toss up between the Liberals and NDP. While most of the Quebec NDP MPs and candidates are running in nomination battles and by acclamation in each riding, the party is yet to field a candidate in this riding, and it's possible that they are leaving it open for prominent Montreal lawyer Julius Grey, who has expressed interest in the past to run for the NDP. Should Grey decide to run for the NDP in NDG-Westmount, this could turn into a two way race between him and Garneau due to their high profile backgrounds. For now, Marc Garneau is the favourite to win the riding.
15 05 17 Marco Ricci
There haven't been any indications in the news so far that Julius Grey is planning to run for office. He is very busy representing the NDP as their lawyer at the moment, as well as with other legal cases.
However, it's still possible that the NDP will find a high-profile candidate to run here by October, although whoever it is will be getting a late start against Marc Garneau.
15 04 26 Docere
High-profile lawyer Julius Grey has expressed interest in running for the NDP, and if he does would likely run here. If he had run in Westmount-Ville Marie in 2011 instead of a last minute paper candidate, he may very well be the MP today. But Garneau survived the 2011 Iggy debacle, has the advantage of better Liberal numbers and a somewhat better riding, so I'm calling this for the Liberals.
15 03 28 monkey
The redistribution makes this slightly more Liberal friendly as well as Marc Garneau is almost certain to be a cabinet member if the Liberals win or one of the strong opposition critics if they lose. In many ways he has a lot of the characteristics Justin Trudeau doesn't which are not overly charismatic, but very smart and knowledgeable so he will be a very strong complement to the Trudeau team.
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
Marc Garneau had a very close call in May 2011 on Orange Wave night. He was actually projected defeated at one point by CTV News! He only won by about 600 votes, the narrowest win of the 7 Liberals who survived in Québec. However, the new boundaries of this riding make it a little more favourable to him, plus the Liberal vote is likely to go up under Justin Trudeau in Montréal. Garneau now has a prominent position in the Liberal Party after running for leader and becoming the new Foreign Affairs critic. There are no other candidates listed as running against him yet, so the NDP doesn't seem to be focused here yet.
15 03 18 JFBreton
Avec l'arrivée de Trudeau à la tête des Libéraux, ces châteaux-forts libéraux du West Island n'ont rien à craindre. Une bonne part du vote néo-démocrate des dernières élections reviendra au bercail. Marc Garneau sera réélu sans problème.

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