Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Haldimand-Norfolk


Prediction Changed
2013-02-16 14:36:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Barrett, Toby

Faulkner, Anne

Mottashed, Bradley

Nichols, Ian

Robinson, Karen

Incumbent:
Toby Barrett

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Haldimand-Norfolk)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * TOBY BARRETT
    2520360.81%
    IAN NICHOLS
    804819.42%
    GREG CRONE
    708717.1%
    JUSTIN BLAKE
    8682.09%
    JOHN G. GOTS
    2420.58%
    2007 Result:
    * TOBY BARRETT
    26,13560.92%
    LORRAINE BERGSTRAND
    9,53622.23%
    JAN WATSON
    4,54610.60%
    CHAD SQUIZZATO
    2,2305.20%
    STEVEN ELGERSMA
    4571.07%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1566238.34%
    1894646.38%
    445210.89%


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    14 05 19 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    He didn't seem like such a powerhouse-in-the-making during the Harris/Eves regime; but twice in a row, Toby Barrett cracked 60% and won every single poll--yes, every single poll. And it's evidently more of a personal than a raw 'natural Tory' thing--by comparison, Diane Finley's struggled to reach much beyond the 50% mark as MP, despite being a sitting cabinet minister. (And provincially, pre-1990, this was Liberal heartland--even Bob Nixon held various parts at intervals.) But perhaps what most interesting about H-N in 2011 was the topsy-turvy opposition results--in a federal election where the Liberals collapsed to 3rd in much of the SW Ontario heartland, ex-MP Bob Speller held on to second place; yet provincially, the federal third-place finisher, NDPer Ian Nichols unexpectedly wound up nicking the Grits for second!
    14 05 14 OgtheDim
    206.108.171.66
    Not going anywhere but PC. It would take a PC implosion of Kim Campbell proportions for this one to go to anybody else.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    To start off with, this is generally a fairly Conservative area, but Toby Barrett is very popular so they will not only win this, it will be in their top 5 best showings in the province and their best outside the 613 area code.
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.21.69
    Very safe Conservative seat. Nothing will change.



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