Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-04 13:12:00

Constituency Profile


Elgersma, Steven

Faulkner, Anne

Finley, Diane

Nichols, Ian

Speller, Bob

Hon. Diane Finley

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • erie-lincoln (26/197 Polls)
  • haldimand-norfolk-brant (185/214 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 17 Marco Ricci
    Perhaps Bob Speller is giving the Conservatives a good run here afterall:
    'Ontario Liberal candidate Bob Speller said that multiple live and automated phone calls are being made to residences of some people who are known to be Liberal supporters. ‘The purpose appears to be to alienate Liberal supporters or people leaning towards the Liberals so they become angry and do not vote’'
    If it's true that Speller's opponents are going after his voters, it may be a sign that he is running a strong campaign and they are worried he will win.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Bob Speller was a good MP, but he lost twice in both 2004 and 2006 and the Tories only got 31% in 2004 and 35% in 2006 provincewide. With most polls showing them polling above 38% they will easily hold this. Last time around was closer since Gary McHale who ran as an independent won many of the polls around Caledonia. Considering he was even more right wing than Diane Finley, I suspect she will get most of his votes. The combined right after all was around 50% last time around so even if many NDP and Green votes flock to the Liberals they must persuade some of those who voted for right wing candidates to switch which they haven't done to date.
    11 04 16 Mikey
    Another Conservative win. The negative attack ads and narrative by Mr. Speller and his campaign team are putting people off. The NDP vote is gaining strength as is the Green Party. These votes could have gone to the Liberals accept for the negativity and win at all costs attitude.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    Speller is a familiar face, but also brings baggage. While Hoskins was a stronger candidate and didn't fare well last time, a few local issues are going to boil over and put Finley on notice. The guergis issue, altho not in this riding but one that is causing many of the centre-left women voters in this region second thoughts about supporting Harper. There's also the farming crunch that has not been helped by Harper's pro-big business decisions. Then there's finley -- who alone seems reliable and respected but who is also aloof and too close to Harper. Her husband's troubles aren't going to help, either. Speller by an election-night nose.
    11 04 07 joey joe joe
    Return of Bob Speller MP 1988-2000 puts this in play especially if some of the few NDP voters move to the Liberals in a stop Harper move then Speller can win a narrow victory.
    Speller won in 1988 by 209 votes vs. the Mulroney candidate which is a good parallel.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    Last election was competitive due to the Caledonia dispute. In fact if you consider the fact Gary McHale was pretty right wing, the combined right vote was actually over 50%. Still with only an eight point margin last time around I am a bit reluctant to call this quite yet as this riding both provincially and federally seems to have more an anti-government bias if anything usually voting against the sitting government, still this is the Tories to lose and as long as they don't drop substantially in Ontario they should hold this.
    11 03 30 Brant Liberal
    This riding should be in the too close to call until we get to about 7 days before the vote. Farmers are mad as heck, Bob is respected and Diane is derided and ridiculed throughout the riding.
    A right-leaning dairy farmer advised me last week he would hold his nose and vote for Speller while he planned to vote for Hudak in the provincial election. He agenda is to get rid of Diane as quickly as possible and Bob is the vehicle to do it.
    There is no credible NDP or Green vote in the riding so this is going to be a two-way race.
    If a wave against the Tories starts in Ontario, Diane does not have the local support to fight back the tide. She should be worried and praying the national campaign pushes her over the top because she ain't gonna do it on her own.
    11 03 26 Initial
    This riding is going blue, despite Bob's personal popularity. Diane might not have Bob's personality or popularity, but the policies the Conservatives represent appeal to this rural riding.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    This seat is closer than some of the other TCTC on this site. On the one hand it's a rural seat, Finley's a cabinet minister, and the resources available to her are surely unlimited considering her husband. On the other hand, though, is Caledonia. Considering her high position, she certainly didn't do much to resolve the issue and her poor performance combined with the high independent total shows it. Eric Hoskins did very well, all things considered. It remains to be seen whether his young, fresh face albeit with a weak local presence is more appealing than a well-known old hand who could get tagged as yesterday's man.
    10 11 20 R.O.
    I disagree with some of the comments here but If this one in the states it be the perfect tea party candidate riding and just about certain it vote for one as there has been alot of bitterness with governments over the years here. that being said the 2 main candidates are both government insiders who have spent time in cabinet and very close to there party leader. Bob Speller is an avid Ignatieff supporter who chose to return to politics once he became leader. even with Bob Speller being from the riding it should still be a conservative stronghold due to rural demographics . but the more i learn and think the riding i relaise its just difficult to be in government here and that lead to decline in votes in 08. although some voters still likely have enough reasons to dislike the liberals such as long gun registry vote and Ignatieff decision to not allow liberal mp's to support the bill to scrap it that it stay blue . It also remains to be seen if Gary Mchale will run again and if caledonia situation ever gets resolved or continues to be main issue in parts of riding.
    10 01 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Though if compelled to make a choice, we'd say that Finley keeps it, we think it would be prudent to recast this TCTC. The Liberals have gained steam...rather the CPC has lost steam, especially in Ontario. With Speller on the ballot again, if he can maintain the 18-20K votes that the Liberals have won throughout the last decade (save for the '08 debaucle), he will give Finley a run for her money and possibly knock her off in a squeeker. This riding has never been one of the CPC southern Ontario powerhouses and this could be the first rural Ontario ridings the grits win back.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    The Caledonia issue has turned *everything* electorally upsy-downsy in H-N; a year after it allowed PC MPP Toby Barrett to ride to a landslide, it rather contrarily led Diane Finley to the steepest drop of any federal CPC incumbent in Ontario. But remarkably, it wasn't just a matter of Gary McHale absorbing a lot of the ‘Toby Barrett Caledonia populist’ base; at the *other* end, Eric Hoskins achieved a surprisingly robust Grit result for a rural Ontario riding amidst the Dion disaster, all the more so for his not being Bob Speller. (Well, Hoskins was a big-shot who went on to be St Paul's MPP; but, still.) Presently, though I'm more inclined to regard '08 as a fluke; and as far as Speller being back, well, paradoxically speaking, he's no Eric Hoskins. But if Tories and Grits poll more t/w national parity, I may reconsider...
    09 11 09 Dustin
    Diane Finley has slowly but surely been slipping in the local polls in Haldimand Norfolk, mostly due to her continuing absence from the riding (she lives in Ottawa with her Harper Appointed Senator husband). Diane Finley has been criticized heavily recently for her inability to work to settle the Land Claims issue in Caledonia, which has crippled the town for years, or mediate a workable solution for the labour dispute at US Steel. In addition, she has alienated a large number of usually-conservative leaning farmers, from tobacco farmers who were treated shabbily in transition negotiations, to ginseng, orchard, and dairy farmers who have generally had their models for new, beneficial programs gutted and ignored by Diane's office.
    Bob Speller, a former Ag Minister, is running against her and has a large, well-received local presence. He has a very strong track record from his days in office, and the general attitude of the riding is that local issues were better handled in his terms than they have been in Finley's. In the last election, and independent gathered a large anti-Diane protest vote. With this candidate no longer in the running, and Bob Speller back in the picture, look for these votes to turn liberal, and this riding to turn red in 2010.
    09 09 03 OgtheDim
    Bob Speller rides again for the Liberals. As connected as Finlay is nationally, she doesn't have Speller's local connections. She originally won more becaue of an anti-Lib tide then an anti-Speller. That makes this one a lot closer then the Tories would like.
    Expect a visit from Harper here, but out in Norfolk somewhere on a swing between London and Kitchener events; Caledonia is a lost cause for the Tories due to their unwillingness to do anything about the blockade.
    09 09 02 R.O.
    Its back to the past for the liberals here as Bob Speller is running again but the problem for the liberals is exactly that nothing has really changed. they still lack any real significant rural policy and Ignatieff has made it clear the liberals will continue to support the long gun registry which is unpopular in rural ridings like this and one of the main reasons they lost it to begin with. the liberals that lost the riding back in 2004 have simply not really changed at all and made no significant changes to the policy which cost them rural support to begin with. Well Diane Finley has had some ups and downs since being apart of the government, she still remains a well known political figure. and is married to another high profile conservative in Doug Finley who is now a senator. a rural riding like this is more likely to stay conservative at the moment as the liberals are more focused on getting the urban votes.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Despite dropping more than 7%, Finley still won by more than 4,000. She'll hold the seat, and her husband's Senate appointment will be a non-issue.

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