Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Barrett, Toby

Blake, Justin

Crone, Greg

Gots, John G

Nichols, Ian

Toby Barrett


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Mike from Simcoe
    Toby's showing in '07 was against a shallow candidate from Haldimand who angered Norfolk residents over many issues following the ‘divorce’. It won't be such a cake walk for Mr Tractor this time, but he'll win.
    11 09 20 Bear
    Actually Toby has been the member since 1995. He is the typical southwestern Ontario rural member. He is not remarkable in any way, and his popularity is based on the fact that he never does anything terribly wrong, even though he never does anything terribly significant for the riding. He'll win because this riding is one of the most conservative ridings in Canada, let alone Ontario. He will keep winning until he chooses to step down, simply because everyone just considers him a ?nice guy?.
    11 09 18 A.S.
    Funny how nobody's raised that Barrett's astronomical '07 result was likely juiced-up by the Caledonia controversy, and his Liberal opponent's haplessness in dealing with it--I suspect ?normal? here might be closer to 50% than 60% (and yet pre-1990, this was all solidly provincially *Liberal*--back when the provincial Grit base was more agrarian and small-town)
    11 09 16 full
    I am not a Conservative, nor a Toby Barrett fan. Toby's been the MPP since 1999 and by and large he has not brought much at all to this riding through succesive governments. His rhetoric is like an old 45 record that just keeps going round and round. Toby is the PC leaders favourite puppet along with barking Tory MPP Garfield Dunlop (Simcoe North)but Toby will undoubtely be re-elected regardless the Liberal challenger had far better ideas. It's like Haldimand-Norfolk is stuck in another time, a different era. Strange folk we are, I guess.
    11 08 23 R.O.
    Likey conservative hold for longtime mpp Toby Barrett, don't really see any of the other 3 main parties being able to overcome his lead . he seems to be fairly popular here and in 07 managed to poll much better results than the federal conservative mp for the same riding. not alot of support for provincial liberals in this area and there likely to focus much more time in other areas anyways where they can actually win ridings.
    11 03 07 MF
    I think this was the second best result for the PCs last time (after Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke)...and their percentage of the vote was up quite a bit from 2003. Toby Barrett obviously enjoys much local popularity, as somehow I don't think John Tory - who is about as much of a ‘populist’ as John Kerry or Michael Ignatieff - had anything to do with it.
    11 02 25 Jeff Westlake
    Toby Barrett has been MPP since 1999, and took more than 60% of the vote in '07. It's too much of a lead to be caught.

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