Prediction Changed
8:21 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition
New Democratic

Haldimand-Norfolk-Brant (88.9%)
Toby Barrett
Erie-Lincoln (11.1%)
Tim Hudak

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
Angry farmers in this riding will put down their torches and pitch forks long enough to mark an X by Toby's name on the ballot. Barrett is seen as nothing more than a down home joke at Queen's Park but you have to give him credit. Nobody knows how to whip up fear and anger in rural Ontario than Toby does and events in this riding just keep making it easier for Toby to win big. Starting in 1995 when Toby was first elected, he had the angry tobbaco farmers lining up to vote for him. Same thing in 1999. Then in 2003, Dalton McGuinty promised to close the disgusting, coal burning Nanicoke plant. Toby raced into the Nanicoke area and whipped them up to stand with him and save the plant. Ended up McGuinty couldn't deliver on the plant closing promise but he's still talking about it. Then, just when things couldn't get any better for Toby, the Caledonia problem came up. Toby rushed to the eastern end of his riding and despite a national constitution that says native land claims have to be settled by the federal government, Toby told angry Caledonians it was all Dalton McGuinty's fault. Never mind a federal Tory cabinet minister, the always missing in Action Diane Findley represents Caledonia. The final result will leave Toby with the biggest victory he's ever had. So in the end, Toby may be a country joke at Queen's Park but he'll have the last laugh. Barrett wins by 10,000 votes here.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
Caledonia might be in this riding, but only just. The rest of this riding is a rural almost ‘redneck’ stronghold that was one of the top half dozen ridings for the Reform-Alliance throughout the 90’s, and one of the strongest CPC ridings federally within the province. Even in 2003 the gap here was 8 points, that’s something that the Liberals are going to be hard pressed to match when polls show the province-wide gap is less now then it was in 2003. The Tories have the stronger and longer history here, they will be able to hold this riding on E-Day.
07 10 01 Jim
There is a non-election happening. Very little buzz around. Here in Haldimand-Norfolk, a constituency where comfort and traditions seem to rule now, folks are indifferent with PC incumbent Toby Barrett, and a bit apprehensive with former Dunnville and Haldimand County mayor Lorraine Bergstrand, the Liberal candidate. Lorraine is a former Red Tory and now occupies the right-wing of the provincial Liberals.
07 09 22 A.S.
Toby Barrett's survival of '03 proved, once and for all, that he was more than just PC backbench wallpaper--though he might have been helped by a weak Liberal effort (weaker than '99, even); had it been a Barrett-Bergstrand race *then*, he might well have lost. Trouble now is, Bergstrand comes into this race a two-time mayoral loser. Then again, H-N's PC stronghold-dom doesn't go back any further than Barrett; previously, it was pure Nixon-Liberal heartland, in part represented by Bob Nixon himself. But that's a different political tradition we're talking about; and it defaults just well into the present PC-friendly scenario...
07 09 16 initials only please
This riding is up for grabs between Barrett and Bergstrand. The tobacco wave is passing and farmers are evolving to other means, John Tory is not convincing the Nanticoke TGS will be around much beyond McGuinty's plan, most folks in the know realize the Caledonia Native issue is a Federal one which is not being managed well up to now, former Mayor Bergstrand is well known in Haldimand as a former mayor of the County and Town of Dunnville. She is also well known in the Cayuga area as a successful business manager.
07 09 07 RyanOntario
isn't this the riding home to most of ontario's tobacco farmers , since the liberals have been launching a crusade against smoking/tobacco i don't see this riding voting for the liberals.
Toby Barrett is well known in this riding and survived the liberal sweep of nearby hamilton in 03.
07 08 16 JW
Certainly do not count out the Liberal candidate here. Lorraine Bergstrand, former Mayor of Haldimand County will be giving Barrett a good run for his money.
07 05 06 Angry Ontarian
Is this the riding of CALEDONIA?! Dalton McGuinty has failed to resolve the Caledonia dispute. This kills any chance of a Grit victory here. Not that the PC's weren't winning here anyways.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Toby Barrett held this in 2003 despite his party being turfed from power, so I don't see why he would lose it now.

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