Prediction Changed
09:07 11/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Christian Heritage
Elgersma, Steven
Finley, Diane
Hoskins, Eric
Johnston, Stephana
McHale, Gary
New Democratic
Nichols, Ian

Hon. Diane Finley

2006 Result:
Diane Finley **
Bob Speller
Valya Roberts
Carolyn Van Nort
Steven Elgersma

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 10 Swift
Dianne is done. It might have gone Liberal, but on the most important, in fact only issue for many Hoskins was not sufficiently prepared from my information. McHale should win Caledonia easily and garner enough votes in the rest of the riding to gain a close victory. Toby Barret, who has supported Gary's efforts, won this riding with over 60% of the votes in the last provincial election, an increase of about 12% from the previous election. Most of this increase was because of his criticism of the DCE occupation, and how it was handled. Add that 12% to what Gary will take from Dianne, and it should be enough to win.
08 10 07 T.V.
I never would have seen it coming, but it looks like this is now Eric Hoskins' to lose. McHale is getting a great deal of support locally, and all of it is coming from the absentee MP. Caledonia is a federal issue and the Tories have completely abdicated their responsibility to deal with it, so it's not surprising that their support has dropped dramatically in that part of the riding. Hoskins is definite front bench material, and he's running a good enough campaign to pull out a narrow win on the vote split.
08 10 06 Nick J Boragina
According to this media piece:
McHale may get quite a few votes, and could play spoiler. He could even win as a UK MP did running on a platform focused on the local hospital. I dont think he will however, but can he take enough usually Conservative votes to make this riding go Liberal?
08 09 22 Roby
There is a surprising amount of Black lawn signs sporting Gary McHale around. Even though I don't think he will win, he is going to play a bit of a spoiler in this election, especially in the east half of the riding, where Caledonia has been a big thorn. He even received the support of Haldimand mayor Marie Trainer. With his ideology to the right, any votes McHale receives are taken directly from Finley, allowing this race to have a chance to be a toss up. Every other election I'd say Conservative landslide, however, McHale has a way of pushing his cause, allowing city slicker-like Dr. Eric Hoskins to have a shot.
08 09 17 Adrena Lynn
The issue is definitely not whether Diane Finley will win or lose, but it's how much she will win by. With a Liberal candidate that seems more at home in downtown Toronto with the intellectual elites, Finley should be winning with 55%-60% of the vote. Instead, issues like Caledonia, the decline of the tobacco industry and her seeming absence from the riding are cutting into her lead substantially. With today's announcement by Stephen Harper on a crackdown on tobacco products marketed to children, in Welland (a stone's throw away from H-N), Finley's fearless leader is not helping her a bit. Yes, tobacco being sold to children is a terrible shame, but still farmers who make this stuff still need to earn a living (and some of them probably see it that way). In the end, Finley may end up winning by 6000-7000 votes.
08 09 14 Mike from Simcoe
Let's not get caught up in the usual election rhetoric. The Conservatives will win H-N. This mainly rural area does not want to be taxed into submission by a ‘carbon’ tax that will increase the price of everything (directly or indirectly).
Yes, the Indian issue isn't resolved, and won't be for years to come. The tobacco issue will peeter out as the producers abandon the crop, so what's left?
08 09 14 full name
Independent candidate Gary McHale might siphon off Conservative voters ticked off at the way Finley has handled (absent) the Caledonia native land claim crisis and a strong candidate in Liberal Dr. Eric Hoskins might come up the middle and score a victory. In my normally very Conservative neighbourhood there are Dr. Hoskins signs almost everywhere. Very few Finley signs. I think this time around may be a protest vote away from the absent Finley MP.
08 09 09 all initials (JKG)
Haldimand-Norfolk is not an perennial Conservative riding. Many folks still regard Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Bob Speller a real fighter and producer for H-N. Today, tobacco farmers are still reeling, native land claim issues (Caledonia) are not properly addressed, and current MP Diane Finley has been invisible for much of her term. More federal riding news was heard here about neighbouring riding Brant's MP Lloyd St. Amand than our own! The Liberal candidate Dr. Eric Hoskins has no baggage and is a much accomplished and admired man in his own right. In no way is it a given MP Finley will be re-elected.
08 09 05 Swift
Gary McHale has just announced he is running as an independent. I don't think he will win, but he may get a surprising number of votes. Caledonia is certainly going to be front and center with his entry.
08 08 24 T.V.
Since Diane Finley's retirement seems to have been a spurious rumour, she shouldn't have much trouble holding her riding despite being married to Harper's G. Gordon Liddy. It's a shame because Eric Hoskins would be a real asset to the House. It would be wonderful if they could find him a more winnable riding next time around.
08 03 24 R.O.
The conservatives have a high profile mp in Diane Finley like her or not you cannot deny she is high profile and well connected within the party. And by the next election she will have been the mp for this riding for over 4 years. The liberals will be running a new candidate Eric Hoskins, he has not run here before and little political experience in this riding. His background sounds more like an ndp one and not a good fit for this riding. Not sure who the ndp or greens are running but they have not been a major factor here in previous elections. What are some likely major local issues in the riding – agriculture/ tobacco farming and Caledonia come to mind problem for opposition liberals they are not strong on either file. So I have a hardtime seeing reason for liberal potential here.
08 03 22 I'm Always Right
I was amused to read RO trying to sell the idea that rural parts of Haldimand-Norfolk are not hicksville because they have a Walmart and a Zehrs. Having large retail stores doesn't change the political leaning of one of the most hick ridings in Ontario. It just means that the farmers who are always crying poor, actually have lots of money. Visit this riding some day a look at all the BMWs and Mercedes driving around. That being said, there's only one party in this riding and that's the Conservatives.
08 03 15 Curley, Larry and Moe
Wow, another riding that some posters claim is full of angry rednecks and others claim that isn't true. The three of us have to point out that there are actually two very different sections of Haldimand-Norfolk. The largest section is the rural, small town, and we're sorry but redneck part of the riding made up of the regions of Haldimand and Norfolk. This is tobacco country where farmers vote Conservative and think Diane Finley is there door to the power in Ottawa. Findley will win every poll in this part of the riding where Liberals risk their lives knocking on doors.
Then there's the Caledonia section of the riding that is suburban and is made up of commuters. This section should be fertile ground for the Liberals but the land dispute problem put an end to that. All three of us agree that Stephen Harper and the federal Conservatives were totally brilliant in turning what should have been a huge problem for them into helping them keep this riding. The federal Conservatives managed to pin the entire problem on Dalton McGuinty and the provincial Liberals. McGuinty was like a deer in the headlights as the federal Conservatives spun this into a black eye for the provincial government. The result is that Caledonia is now just as strong in their support of the Conservatives as the blame their daily problems on Liberals at Queen's Park. Findley is now a hero in Caledonia and while the Liberals are hated. This riding is as safe a Conservative seat as there is in Ontario.
08 03 12 Peg Leg Pete
R.O. usually has a good handle on ridings he/she comments on but misses an obvious point about Speller winning Haldimand-Norfolk. Speller won this quite rural seat in 93,97 and 2000 when there were two major right wing parties splitting votes in this riding. That's how the Liberals managed to win just about every seat in this province. As soon as the two right wing parties stopped splitting the vote, Speller was history. Paul Martin even tried pouring millions of agriculture dollars into this riding before the 2004 election and Bob still got whipped. So without a right wing split, right wing voters in this riding will keep Diane Findley in office no matter how bad a job she does. Diane will even win every poll in Caledonia because they vote Conservative and blame Dalton McGuinty for everything. Findley wins by 12,000 votes.
08 03 02 R.O.
Multiple poster dude, your forgeting a few things here. first this riding isn’t as rural as your trying to claim , has some bedroom communities near Hamilton and town of Simcoe has every modern feature like hospital, schools and even has a walmart and zehrs now. And the conservatives had to campaign hard in 04 to win it, Bob Speller didn’t just hand them his seat he had held since 1988 and his cabinet post as agriculture minister at the time. And Diane Finlay is not a bad mp, only usual thing is she wears sunglasses in the house of commons because of eye condition. But she should have no trouble holding on to this seat based on her previous results and profile.
08 03 03 Peg Leg Pete
While watching the evening news last night I happened to see the story about a bunch of wild-eyed hicks from Caledonia who jumped in their rusty pickup trucks and headed to Vaughan so they could protest in front of OPP commissioner, Julian Fantino's home. These hicks say next they'll be protesting in front of homes of Michael Bryant and Dalton McGuinty because the problems in Caledonia are all the fault of the provincial Liberals.
Don't hold your breath waiting to see these angry hicks protesting at the home of their MP and federal cabinet minister, Diane Findley. She's the hero of Caledonia for some reason. Watching these slugs from Caledonia on television last night makes me even more convinced that not only will Findley win the riding by as I predicted earlier, 12,000 votes, but she'll win every poll in Caledonia. Rural Ontario is truly a frightening place.
08 02 26 Peg Leg Pete
The previous poster is very wrong about Diane Findley. She's a terrible MP along with being a weak and useless cabinet minister. However, this makes no difference when you're a Conservative in a rural riding like Haldimand-Norfolk. This riding is filled with wild-eyed, redneck farmers who would elect anyone running under the Conservative banner. My prediction is MIA Findley wins by 12,000 votes this time.
08 02 22
Diane Finley is a decent MP and a solid minister in Cabinet. I don't understand why this is in the too-close-to-call column. The fact is, Diane beat a popular Liberal MP in 2004 and 2006. In 2006, she beat him by over 14%, so I don't see how this is a close race. In fact, I see her vote share increasing.
08 02 19 City Slicker
Having looked over all the too close ridings listed on this site, I have to say I was shocked that Haldimand is still in this column. This is a bedrock Conservative riding no matter how terrible Diane Findley is. The Liberals will do everything they can to hold Brant which will be tough to do. That means they won't be spending any time/money on a lost riding like this one is. Diane could leave the country today and come back for her victory party on April 14. As others have mentioned, the nature of the voters is this riding (redneck farmers) means Findley will hold this riding as long as she wants.
08 01 12 I'm Always Right
Bear and Ape make a good point about how the only way Speller won this redneck riding was thanks to the right wing vote splitting in the 90's. Blake Goodman clearly has no understanding of Haldimand - Norfolk. The Harper government knows they can ignore the inbread voters of this riding all they want. Farmers and small business people in this riding are taking a beating while MP Dianne stays in hiding. If there was any chance of a Grit victory here, Speller would be running again. Old Bob is sitting this out because he knows he can point out how the Conservatives are doing nothing to help the people of this riding but it won't make any difference. Finlay will win by the biggest spread she's ever had. Only in rural Canada could an Cabinet Minister like Finlay let her riding go down the drain and be rewarded by an even bigger victory. It really is time to mark this riding for the Conservatives.
07 12 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We're going to agree with ‘I'm Always Right’, (who, IOHO, is not always right) and reiterate with less beligerant language. The voters in this riding are naturally Conservative voters (for the most part) and there is a significant social conservative element in this riding to ensure Finley's victory. In the past, Speller won for two reasons: 1. He was popular. 2. Splitting of the right-wing vote. Once #2 was eliminated, #1 only kept the race close. Now Speller isn't running which means that Finley will probably win this with her largest margin ever. AS for Caldonia, most voters will agree that it is a provincial mess, not a federal one.
07 12 20 blakegoodman
There is some definite disillusionment with the handling of the Caledonia situation by the federal government. The old-school tories managed to somehow end up blaming the liberals, in the form of Dalton McGuinty, but they are likely to vote CPC regardless. What I think will be interesting to watch is the reaction of the tory-supporters who feel ignored by the feds, those people will have a major impact. Look for a resurgence of those ‘where is Diane Finlay signs’ and general political apathy in the riding. The outcome of this riding may very well hinge on classic conservatives holding their nose and voting--either Liberal or CPC--or not voting at all. Regardless, I think that's the group to watch.
07 12 08 I'm Always Right
As a federal cabinet minister, Diane Finley has been missing in action on the Caledonia issue from the beginning. She won't do anything about the situation and won't even talk about it. Diane has also done nothing to help anyone in her riding. Farmers are taking a beating these days and small businesses in Delhi and Simcoe are in big trouble with the Canadian dollar running so hot. None of this matters. The rednecks of Haldimand and Norfolk don't know how to do anything but vote Conservative no matter how bad things get for them. I'm also ready to predict that there are enough knucle dragging right wingers in the Caledonia part of the riding that Finley wins there too. After all, the problems in Caledonia are all Dalton McGuinty's fault. The fact that land treaties are a federal responsibility and there's a federal Indian Affairs minister makes no impression on the hicks in this riding. I'll say Finley has here biggest win ever. This time by 15,000 votes.
07 11 03 R.O.
This seat was once Bob Spellers and he was popular locally but he is not running again so i'm not even sure this riding is this close and also conservative MP is in cabinet and well known in this riding in the rural areas and various towns . the liberals haven't been able to win this riding since the right united back in 2004 so without bob speller it would be difficult.
07 08 08
The Toronto Star reports speculation that three cabinet ministers may not run for reelection: Trade Minister David Emerson in Vancouver Kingsway, Immigration Minister Diane Finley in Haldimand-Norfolk, and Veteran's Affairs Minister Greg Thompson in New Brunswick Southwest.
If Finley steps down, I think the Liberals have a great opportunity to take this riding back.
07 07 30 A.V.
I really don't think that the candidate's husband's position will make too much difference to the voters of the riding. A quality Liberal candidate will definitely help in this riding (though that didn't help Bob Speller), and coupled with a swing in their favour, they could just defeat the invisible cabinet minister. It won't be easy in a riding like this, though.
07 04 22 David
I was sure the Conservatives were gonna take this. Not after yesterdays Liberal nomination meeting. Order of Canada winning humanitarian Doctor Eric Hoskins will be running for the Liberals. This should be a fun race to watch!
07 04 20 Angry Ontarian
Previous posts forget to mention Diane Finley is married to the Conservatives' Campaign Chair, Doug Finley. That in itself is enough to ensure a CPC victory here.
07 04 14
I agree with the previous three posters. This is naturally one of the more conservative areas of the province (outside of the rural southwest) and the Conservatives remain well ahead of the Liberals. The fact that the last two elections were as close as they were indicates to me the strength of Speller candidate but I ultimately don't see that making a difference. The candidate can make a difference in a naturally very close race but I don't see this as one of those (Jeremy's post was partisan rambling). Barring the Liberals looking like a surefire government (don't see this on the horizon), Finley is back in by a safe, if not overwhelming, margin.
07 04 09 A.S.
Caledonia aside, keep in mind that Diane Finley went from a ‘surprise’ win in 2004 to a 2006 winning percentage that was higher than any SW Ontario Tory save Michael Chong or (borderline) Helena Guergis. And that was in a rematch with ‘surprise’ defeatee Bob Speller, yet. And in a predominantly agricultural/small-town riding now fairly safely held by a provincial Tory, Toby Barrett. As choppy as her cabinet tenure's been, and as beset by Caledonia chaos she's been, I still can't imagine Finley knocked out except in a big throw-the-Tory-bums-out situation--or a freakish protest circumstance like that which first saw Speller elected in '88's free trade election.
07 04 03 Calev
The fact is that it is rare that MP's are elected on their performance as a MP. For one most people who do not follow politics, don't care how they are as a MP but rather what is the party like. The few exceptions are independents, ministers, and some famous MPs like Kilgour. I think Conservative hold.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Diane Finley is no doubt a lousy MP while Bob Speller is a strong one, but the fact he lost both times despite his popularity suggests to me this is a conservative riding by nature and will barring something unexpected go conservative again. Never mind Diane Finley got almost 49% of the popular vote and with the NDP being weaker than most Rural Ontario ridings, I see Diane Finley hanging on. If we had US style elections where you vote for your MP separately from the PM, then she would be in danger, but most people vote for the party not the local candidate.
07 03 28 Rob P
Should Bob Speller run again, I predict a win. The other party candidates (NDP, Green, Christian Heritage) have very minor public image.
Findley has become very unpopular in the area, especially in Caledonia, where there is still bitterness towards the Federal Government for a lack of action towards the ongoing Six Nations land claim.
07 03 28 Jeremy
Ladies and Gentlemen, its over! The Diane Finley absentee era will be coming to a screeching halt come next election. Diane's complete and utter lack of interest in her own riding has not gone over well with local constituents. Everyone from farmers to teachers, small business owners, health care professionals, service clubs, native groups, etc, have all overwhelmingly had it with her no show, no interest style.
Infact just recently local farm groups called publically for her resignation, while standing directly outside of her constituency office. I strongly believe voters will restore this riding back to the Liberals. Regardless of the national scene any constituent of Haldimand-Norfolk that marks their ballot for Diane Finley will get everything they deserve once again, NOTHING!

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