Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:19:00

Constituency Profile


Groenendijk, Gerard

Harb, Omar

Parker, Ellen

Schellenberg, Konrad

Sorenson, Kevin A

Turner, John C.

Kevin A. Sorenson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • crowfoot (156/230 Polls)
  • red-deer (2/238 Polls)
  • wild-rose (65/251 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 08 C.A.B.
    Crowfoot was the strongest Reform riding in 1997, the strongest Alliance riding in 2000, and the strongest Conservative riding since 2004. In all three elections since the merger, the Tories have finished above 80% here. And, in 2004, 2006, and 2008, this seat had the highest share for any candidate running anywhere in the country! Perhaps another Rural Alberta riding could usurp that position this time around, but I'll take a chance and predict that this riding will continue to hold that record in 2011.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    In the past three elections the Tories have won over 80% each time and this was their best riding in all of Canada. They will win this, the question is will they get above 80% again and will Kevin Sorenson be the candidate who gets the highest vote percentage in all of Canada?
    11 03 27 WAC
    I don't know ridingbyriding ... I think the good people of Wild Rose would have a claim to be as right wing if not more than the citizens of Crowfoot.
    10 05 22 A.S.
    It's worth noting, too, re ridingbyriding's analysis that you have to squint to notice that the LRWP standard-bearer triumphed in the face of controversial incumbent opponents in 1979 (PC-turned-Liberal-cabinet-minister Jack Horner, who also ran in 1980) and 2000 (disgraced ex-Reformer Jack Ramsay). And to top it all off, if present polls sustain themselves, the provincial LRWP needle is almost certain to shift absolutely t/w the Wildrose Alliance within these boundaries, unless Ted Morton can help it. Oh well, at least I was correct last time in anticipating a token settling-down of CPC share, not that it made much difference. (Though if you want ‘moral victories’, the NDP surpassed 16% in Camrose.)
    10 04 24 ridingbyriding
    Lets take a look at this riding in history.
    2008. This riding was won by the largest right-wing party (the CPC) at 82%.
    2006? The largest right-wing party by 83%
    2004? again, the largest-right wing party by 80%
    In 2000 it was won by the largest right-wing party (votes and seats) at 71%
    1997, the largest right-wing party (LRWP) at 71%
    1993, again, LRWP at 66%
    1988, LRWP 54%
    LRWP in... 1980 @ 77% -- 1979 @ 77% -- 1974 @ 76% -- 1972 @ 76% -- 1968 @ 73%
    Prior to this, the riding did not exist. The riding of Acadia did, however, and the MP during the switch represented both.
    In 1965, it was won by LRWP at 57%
    In 1963, LRWP at 52%
    You have to go back to 1962 to see it won by LRWP below 50%, in this case, 43%, against Social Credit, a smaller but more extreme right-wing party, which took 38% of the vote in that election.
    In 1958, LRWP won by 50% but
    in 1957, Social Credit (a party further to the right and the LRWP of the time, the PC Party) won with 52%
    1953 saw no Tory run. SC won at 46% over the Liberals at 43%
    1949 saw SC win at 58%
    In 1945 SC won at 52%, in 1940 at 45%, and in 1935 at 59%. The last time a non-right wing MP held this riding was at the 1930 election, where Robert Gardiner of the Progressives, later CCF, was elected without an opponent. I note however that in 1935, he took second place with a miserable 18% of the vote.
    To sum it up...
    There is not, will not be, and never was, any riding, more right-wing than crowfoot.
    09 10 12 binriso
    Safest seat in the country for the CPC even though their support dipped a bit last time they still won by almost an 11-1 margin over 2nd place. Maybe even more interesting that it is named after a fairly famous First Nations chief and has become a riding that votes uniformily for a right wing party since the Progressives of the 20s.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. That number can only be higher once we take Edmonton into account. Unless the Wildrose Alliance starts to field federal candidates, this rural Alberta riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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