Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:04 AM 6/3/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:37 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Arnold Baker
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Adam Campbell
Parti Marijuana Party:
Max Cornelssen
Ellen Parker
Kevin Sorenson

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Crowfoot (68.5%)
Kevin Sorenson
Red Deer (0.0%)
Bob Mills
Wild Rose (31.5%)
Myron Thompson

2000 Result/Résultats:
33,988 71.72%
6,641 14.01%
3,094 6.53%
1,396 2.95%
2,269 4.79%

(156/230 polls, 50228/72325 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Red Deer
(2/238 polls, 7/84207 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Wild Rose
(65/251 polls, 23065/91506 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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02/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
I'm wondering if that rogue NDP predictor is the same wise guy who made a Jack Ramsay "his record speaks for himself" prediction in 2000. Well, to repeat my theme in 2000, the "Alliance Conservatives" may be dinosaurs, but they love their dinos in Drumheller. (Though is Consort in this seat? Naw, not even a K.D. Lang for the NDP or Greens would earn back a deposit...)
24/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Y'know, that NDP prediction was most likely made just to stir up the pot and watch those of us who take this election prediction thing a little too seriously, get all up in arms. Having said that, we're not going to waste any more time acknowledging something so foolish. Rural Alberta = Conservative country. Period.
23/05/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
While I'm a proud New Democrat, I'm not sure if the previous poster is a naive ignoramus or merely trying to make NDP supporters look like idiots.
Either way, this riding is going Conservative, and there's not anything that can be done about it.
19/05/04 RetroRyan
Email: [hidden]
Although I respect the previous poster's enthusiasm for Jack Layton, his/her posting is absolutely ridiculous. Look at the previous 2000 results for this riding. The CA came in first with 74%, and the PC came in second. The NDP was at 3%. To claim that because Crowfoot borders on Saskatchewan, it is ripe for the NDP shows an enormous amount of wishful thinking. The fact is that the bordering ridings in Saskatewan (such as Kindersley-Lloydminster) are some of the most conservative in that province. Also, look at the provincial results for ridings such as Drumheller-Chinook, and there you'll find that the provincial PCs win with huge margins as well, usually with Social Credit or Alberta Alliance coming in second. The Liberals and NDP aren't even on the radar screen in this riding.
19/05/04 The Unknown
Email: [hidden]
I'm a big NDP supporter, but they seriously have no chance in hell of picking up this riding. Crowfoot would most probably stay Conservative with well over 70% of the vote.
19/05/04 JGH
Email: [hidden]
NDP, huh? In Crowfoot, eh?
Well, I suppose it could happen, but just taking NDP and CA votes from the last time around, the NDP would have to not just double their vote, not just triple or quadruple their vote, not even quintuple or octuple their vote - they would need to 24uple their vote to match the CA vote last time. There's a reason that the term for multiplying something by a factor of 24 isn't a well known english word - it doesn't happen that often.
Also, anyone who makes a blanket statement like "Saskatchewan is the home of the N.D.P. grassroot support" without knowing how rural western Sask votes probably doesn't have a good feel for this riding. Conservative hold BIG. There will be bear maulings that will be prettier than this.
19/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@hotmail.com
The NDP win in CROWFOOT?!!?! Are you stoned? Last election the combined conservative vote was over *90%*... If Adolf Hitler was the CPC candidate he'd win over 70% without breaking a sweat...
Email: [hidden]
With the N.D.P. fortunes rising in the west, Crowfoot will certainly fall to them. Saskatchewan is the home of the N.D.P. grassroot support and Crowfoot huges its western border. A lot of this support will spill over into Crowfoot. Jack Layton is becoming extremely popular in Alberta. He will definitely be increasing his seats in the west and Crowfoot with other rural Alberta seats will be among them. Steven Harper has taken these rural seats for granted for too long and has ignored their concerns while he courts and sucks up to the Ontario voters. How pathetic. The people of Crowfoot will remember this on election day. The N.D.P. will take at least a dozen rural Alberta seats and this one will be at the top of their list. With the Conservative numbers spiraling down from coast to coast, I'm surprised the postings below are still calling for a conservative win here. N.D.P. pick-up.
The Conservatives could run anyone here and win. Even though Sorenson has been a bit of a bumbling opportunist with little to no political clout and hasn't done much for the riding he will win handily - likely by well over 75%. The safest seat in the country for any party.
26/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
the Western Canada concept once had a strong candidate here, other then that, its been Conservative for half a century
17/03/04 Craig
Just your normal rural Alberta riding - largest majority for any party in all of Canada expected here. In fact, like several other ridings, a Libertarian or Alberta separatist candidate would finish second! This is as right-wing as it gets in all of Canada, if not the whole world! Predicted results: Conservative 81%, Liberal 6%, NDP 4%, others 9%.
15/03/04 RWA
In 2000 the combined conservative vote in this riding (split between the CA, PCs and former Reform MP Jack Ramsay as an Independent) was 90%!! You can bank this one for the Tories.

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