Prediction Changed
10:37 AM 28/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Howe, Sharon L.
Kettenbach, Kaitlin
New Democratic
Parker, Ellen
Sorenson, Kevin

Kevin A. Sorenson

2006 Result:
Kevin A. Sorenson **
Ellen Parker
Adam Campbell
Cameron Wigmore

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 07
OH YEAH!!! The most conservative riding in all of Canada! Expect the Conservatives to take this one with 85%+ of the votes, with possibly the Christian Heritage Party taking second place.
08 02 19 A.S.
Because 85% is getting up in oxygen-mask territory, I'd rather bet on a slide in share, however token. Yes, perhaps GP is the most likely beneficiary; but the fact that the supposedly rural-Alberta-friendly Greens were still only fourth here against miserable Grit/NDP showings doesn't bode the best. The only way to *guarantee* a slide in share would be an independent conservative or some kind of Socred/WCC factor coming back into play--even if it's just a matter of five points or so...
07 11 02 T.V.
Like most Alberta seats, it's a race for second place. I would put my money on the Greens coming second here and in a number of others. The Tory vote might even go down slightly, entirely to the benefit of the Greens and entirely as a protest vote by people irritated with Harper's pandering to left-wing issues.
Incidentally, the town of Three Hills in the Crowfoot riding may just have the distinction of being the most conservative community in Canada.
07 07 16 binriso
Kevin Sorenson is going to break 85% this election i think. It would probably be some sort of miracle for any other party to break 10% let alone have any hope.
Interestingly the Liberal party have had an MP from Crowfoot though and not overly long ago. In 1977 Jack Horner crossed over from the PC's and joined the Trudeau cabinet. He of course got beaten soundly in 1979.
07 04 12 CDW
Kevin S - CPC - elected
Cameron W - GPC - 2nd with over 10%
Ellen P - NDP - 3rd
misc - LPC - 4th
The incumbent Kevin S had over 80% of the vote in the last two federal elections. Unless he or his party makes a really big blunder, he'll win again. The Green Party candidate is running for the second time, and will be stronger. Couple that with the popularity of the Green Party (the fact that it has a platform & policies that cover all issues, and draws votes from across the political spectrum) and it's likely that the Greens will get over 10% of the vote and come in second.
07 04 05 Brian Appel
The only reason anybody would even write something about this prediction is to try and articulate just how badly Kevin Sorenson is going to beat his opponents. As has been said, this riding encompasses the most conservative region of the most conservative province in the country. Simply put, Crowfoot is to the Conservatives what Mount Royal is to the Liberals. Short of the Apocalypse happening on Election Day, Kevin Sorenson will be returning to Ottawa with over 80% of the vote, easily.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
The question is will Kevin Sorenson for the second time in the row earn the title as having the highest vote percentage of any candidate. He will off course win the riding and it would be a miracle if any other party even cracks the 10% mark.
07 03 24 Daniel
The most Conservative region of the most Conservative province in the country; if this riding goes anything other than Conservative in the next election, it will be the result of something of apocalyptic proportions.

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