Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:31:00

Constituency Profile


Burton, Eric

Clouthier, Hec

Gallant, Cheryl

Tabbert, Christine

Van Schie, Roseanne

Cheryl Gallant

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • renfrew-nipissing-pembroke (203/203 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 04 PB
    Final results:
    Gallant: ~27,462 (53.4%)
    Clouthier: 9,611 (18.7%)
    Burton: 6,902 (13.4%)
    Tabbert: 6,546 (12.7%)
    Van Shie: 877 (1.7%).
    Boy, was I wrong.
    I thought Gallant would win, but I didn't expect that kind of win. Relative to 2008, she lost only ~1,400 votes, and her share dropped from a high of ~61%. When you are that high, there's only one way to go.
    Clouthier didn't do quite as well as I thought he would. I was fairly certain he would get at least 10,000 ... maybe as much as 12,000.
    What really blew me out of the water was how badly Tabbert performed; I thought she was one of the better candidates that the Liberals fielded in a long time. While hindsight is 20/20, here's my guess of what hurt her the most:
    1. She was a parachute candidate. Even if she grew up here, she was living and working in Toronto.
    2. She's a ‘Toronto lawyer’. ... this is not a compliment. This may not be fair, but that may how she was perceived by local voters.
    3. Michael Ignatieff - his lack of popularity and resonance with small-town rural Canada (and apparently urban Canada as well) dragged her down. Layton's scolding of Ignatieff in the debates regarding his poor attendance record in the House of Commons was probably more devastating than realized.
    4. Hec Clouthier - his attacks on both Liberals and Conservatives apparently did more damage to the Liberals, perhaps since he was a former Liberal himself.
    5. Cheryl Gallant - she has been able to maintain her base of supporters as a constituency MP, and also had been able to count on the loyalty of Conservative voters who didn't see Clouthier as a viable alternative.
    6. Inertia of voters in RNP - this is the same riding that elected Len Hopkins (Lib) for 32 years (1965-1997), Jim Forgie(Lib) for 13 years (1953-1965), and Ralph Warren (Lib) for 16 years(1937-1953). Incumbents have an overwhelming advantage in RNP, and only a ‘perfect storm’, such as that which occurred in 2000 with the gun registry issue could cause a shift.
    11 05 04 Observer
    In the aftermath of the election I felt compelled to write this.By no means am I attempting to ridicule but I must say that I am astounded to read that people who took the time to post on this site actually believed Hec Cloutier had a chance in this riding. Either you were attempting to sway voters to join the Hec cause by stating that (which this site should not be used for) or you are completely out of touch with the voters of RNP,in which case your local knowledge proves you should not contribute to a sound political site such as this.
    11 05 03 Rural Canadian
    It is obvious that this site got loaded up with clueless predictions. The results are in, and 'butch' cloutier got fewer votes than the first time he ran as an independant. The Toronto parachute lib candidate came in 4th behind the NDP. Cheryl kicked ass by 19,000 votes over number 2. Cheryl is loved by the majority of the people of this riding and that fact has been reflected at the polls for the last 5 elections!
    11 05 01 bg
    I have called gallants office 2 different times over her time as mpp.Never got a call back either time.The last time Hec Clouthier was in,I walked right into his office and he made the time to sit down right there with me and discuss my issues.Thats the guy I want in office,not just somebody who wants your vote and then has no time for you after they get in.time for change.this riding has been embarassed long enough.I think Hec gets the nod.
    11 04 30 WAC
    I just have an intuition that Hec will pull this off - a ton of Conservatives will vote for him - he's far more personally well-known and like in the Valley than Gallant - and this election has been weird and voters are cranky. No science behind it, just a hunch.
    11 04 30 SF
    I could see this riding remaining as too-close-to-call until the votes are counted on May 2nd.
    Canvassing my town today, and there is a lot of Hec Clouthier support. Most people have already voted, and they voted Independent.
    There is the issue regarding people employed in the military who want a Conservative Government, but don't want Gallant as their MP. If she gets in, it will be very interesting because she won't have the support of the people in the riding.
    11 04 28 Psmith
    Probably a hold for the conservatives. Hec certainly isn't dead yet, but Tabbert has performed admirably which will ultimately hurt him, giving RNP a few more years of shame and embarassment. Here's hoping she gets the Norm Steriling treatment. I certainly hope I am wrong.
    11 04 27 PB
    In spite of the various blunders Gallant has made over the last two years, I suspect that she'll squeek out a win, getting 16,000 to 18,000 votes. She's been able to build and maintain support as a constituency MP for many voters who will overlook her mistakes, and many voters feel that she speaks for them, even if the delivery and intelligence are lacking. There are also a good number of Conservative voters who will hold their noses and vote for Gallant again ... this time. Clouthier will get 10,000 to 15,000 votes. Tabbert should get close to 15,000 votes, performing better than any of the Liberal candidates in the 2004, 2006, and 2008 elections. RNP has had a bad habit since the Depression of re-electing incumbents far too long. There really should be term limits for MP's (and MPP's) - 16 to 20 years max.
    11 04 25 WAC
    I don't what's going to happen, but suggesting Hec Clouthier has no name recognition is ridiculous - the guy lumber mill employs like half of Pembroke. When the guy ran as an independent against Len Hopkins in 1993 he got 10,000 votes back when this riding was a Liberal stronghold. I'm not saying Clouthier will win, but he might, and he's very well known in the Valley, far more so than Gallant (who not from the area - and only moved there relatively recently). A local maverick...
    11 04 26 SF
    This morning, the Ottawa Citizen printed an article saying that Hec Clouthier would be the person most likely to unseat Cheryl Gallant. The other candidates, according to the Ottawa Citizen, aren't popular enough to make an impact in this riding. CBC also had an article saying much the same.
    Most - if not all - the riding newspapers have all endorsed Hec Clouthier.
    Cheryl Gallant now appears a bit nervous about the May 2 outcome. The intonation in her voice has changed, she has agreed to more debate appearances in this election, and she's playing ‘loosey goosey’ with the facts. This morning in the last debate of the campaign, she took credit for forming the CREATE Committee - formed to create a national research laboratory in Chalk River. While she did make a suggestion to the AECL employees that they should do something to help save the Chalk River site, she was not actively involved in the formation of CREATE. Her name only appears only a few times on the CREATE website - mainly in photo captions.
    Sadly for Gallant, the Conservative Party appears ready to let go of this riding, as the main party seems to have abandoned her. Maybe that was Harper's goal all along? He was tired of having to constantly apologize for her gaffes.
    11 04 25 Evan deC.
    This is one of the safest Conservative seats in the country, and it is unthinkable that anyone but Cheryl Gallant could take this. Take into account how far the Conservatives are pulling ahead of the Liberals in Ontario, and this will be an easy win for Gallant regardless of how well she performed in the debates.
    11 04 24
    I was surprised to see this TCTC. Cheryl Gallant is popular here (even if she's not elsewhere), winning by a landslide 61%. Hec Clouthier is just a former one-time Liberal MP 10 years ago, so he doesn't have strong name recognition. Definitely a CPC hold.
    11 04 24 E.H.
    Hilarious that this is now listed as ‘too close to call’. Clouthier lost as an incumbent Liberal against Gallant in 2000 with a divided right. It's wishful thinking on the part of many to believe this riding will go anything other than Conservative. This is the strongest Tory riding in Ontario.
    11 04 21 Pure Whig
    I really don't find this race nearly as interesting as the last 3 elections but I'm in a minority there. I've done canvassing in Renfrew and Arnprior, and talked to many people of various political preferences in volunteer, social, and professional activities over the past few weeks As stated in a previous post I am a partisan Conservative, however I am not a blind one, and have no desire to spin a story. This is what I see and hear at this point.
    The thing I find most interesting is that some former PC voters, who have previously voted Conservative are parking their vote with Hec. The thinking seems to be that he is a business conservative.
    Above Petawawa I have to admit to no first hand knowledge but I would assume to be Liberal and/or Hec country.
    Petawawa is holding Conservative.
    Pembroke and the 41 corridor to Eganville seems to be tight. as would be expected given the sheer volume of Clothier relatives, employees, and adherents in the area. Hec's gain is at the expense of both parties, though I would suggest that the Liberals are holding more of their vote in Eganville area, while losing it in Pembroke. The opposite would be true of Gallant.
    The rural farming area and villages through the center swath of the county seem to be showing some swing to the Liberals.
    Renfrew looks to be competitive to a point. The NDP seems to have regained some of ground after the last few elections where the anti-tory vote has gone Liberal. Hec has made a few inroads, again at the expense of both the traditional parties. However it has not been enough to snatch the town from Gallant.
    Arnprior always continues to defy my assumptions. You would think that with all of the recent movement into the town from outside of the riding that it would be less predictable. On the contrary it appears to be the most solidly Conservative area in the riding. Perhaps it is the suburban flavour lacquered over the town's historic Conservatism. Hec really has no presence in the town at all, nor do the Liberals appear to have gained anything over their 2008 performance.
    The southern townships are also holding to traditional patterns. In other words holding Tory, Liberals in second, with little support for the independent.
    The Liberals and NDP are not in this race to win. Not really. So the question is:
    Mathematically can Hec win?
    Yes. Assume his base support is 10,000, the number of votes received in 1993. For argument sake lets say he takes 7000 from Gallant 2000 from the Libs and picks up 1000 votes from people who stayed home last time as his constituency. He still needs to take another 6000 plus Tory votes or conjure up 11,000 from somewhere to win. It is possible. But it is unlikely
    The anti-tory vote would have to coalesce behind him. He would need to expand out of his Pembroke base to make gains in the center and south of the county, and I just don't see that happening. If the province was trending anti-tory he probably would do it. If the race was fought in the old Renfrew North riding he would probably do it.
    As things stand I don't think he can.
    Gallant with a reduced margin.
    And pray that she retires soon.
    11 04 20 Steven
    I was at the Arnprior all candidates meeting, some quick impressions...
    A significant portion of the crowd was seniors, and the questions from the floor seemed to reflect that. I was surprised at the level of 'anti-cheryl' sentiment among attendees. Ms. Gallant had a small contingent/entourage, that was extremely supportive, as well as a handfull of supporters mixed among the crowd. But the majority of people in attendance (+/- 75%) did not seem to support her, openly laughing at a couple of her statements and jeering whenever she tried to discuss the gun registry issue and loudly cheering when her opponents would discuss her record. In fact the loudest ovation came during the Green candidate’s opening statement where she called Ms. Gallant out for trying to capitalize on the Valley Radio debacle. (To which Cheryl politely clapped, confusing several among the crowd, as well her opponents)
    In my opinion Ms. Gallant did not perform well, she was extremely stiff (blank stare forward at all times, refusing the turn her head left or right at any time), blinking rapidly, trying to shoe-horn the gun registry in at any opportunity, and her closing remarks seemed to be a complete plagiarism of Mr. Harper's closing remarks from the televised debates.
    Mr. Burton fared well, but showed signs of his nervousness, at times fumbling through his responses. When he calmed down he did ok. The Green candidate performed exceptionally, more than a few times eliciting extended applause from the crowd. I truly think that if the party had a higher standing nationally, she would be a contender.
    Mr. Cloutier and Ms. Tabbert did equally well (in my opinion), and based on what I saw, that may be the only reason Cheryl hangs on. As I noted, there was a strong anti-cheryl vibe in the room, but if Hec and Christine split this vote, she may scrape by narrowly. I think TCTC is accurate at this point.
    11 04 20 Clarence
    Hec Clouthier is going to win this one.
    Three reasons:
    The Upper Valley likes populists and mavericks, and Clouthier is both of those things. He will potentially attract Liberal voters, Conservative voters, NDP voters, and disaffected voters who don't ordinarily show up at all.
    Gallant has attracted lots of press - all of it bad - in the local and now national papers, and on national TV.
    Gallant has a compulsion for making an a** of herself. When she didn't have to show up for debates this wasn't a problem. But now that she does, because if she doesn't she gives Clouthier even more momentum, she's going to blow it sooner rather than later. She's already walked out of one debate on an absurd pretext. She can't hide forever.
    11 04 20 Teddy Boragina
    Whoa, hold on for just a second there. Hec ran as an Indy before, and lost, and even when he won (as a Liberal), he would have lost to a united-right party. Beyond that, Gallant has been putting her foot in her mouth since she was elected, elected in 2000, for the Canadian Alliance.
    Hec finish second? I'd bet on it. First? Not a chance.
    11 04 19 Graham
    In the all-candidates debate in Pembroke Cheryl Gallant came prepared with written statements, and seemed very well prepared to debate issues from the 2008 campaign - not the 2011 campaign. Again spoke about carbon tax on firewood, obviously a scare tactic that fell on deaf ears. A new report by Samara Canada that CBC is highlighting basically says the party system is ruining Ottawa/politics. Gallant is certainly a victim of this, and Clouthier just happens to have great timing. His message that the party system isn't good for our riding is ringing true with a lot of voters. Furthermore, rural ridings tend to vote for the best person to speak on their behalf in parliament - not the party who would best represent them. Gallant has disappointed this riding by not acting on issues such as rail, heritage of Ottawa River and the Trans-Canada Highway as well as the HST. Clouthier has a big no-b.s. personality, and he is a threat to Gallant. You can see it in her face.
    11 04 19 R.O.
    Clearly there has been some posts sent in by Hec Clothier loyaltists which are giivng some people an inaccurate view of the race here . i drove thru the riding a week and a half ago which was oddly first time i had done so during federal election as i have relatives in riding. the 3 main campaigns ( Gallant , Clouthier and Talbert) have an equal amount of signs on public property but street corners do not vote . on homes there mostly only seemed to be interest in the small towns where there seemed to be one for Gallant at very least in each of them which must of been a dozen by end of 2 hour drive , saw only 2 homes with a liberal sign and 1 with a Hec Clouthier sign. well sure Cheryl Gallant has been mentioned twice in media negatively this campaign once for Igadfi tweet and the recent story of debate. neither amount to major stories and media has never really liked her to begin with especially Toronto based media. this is also the conservatives strongest seat in Ontario based on previous margins of victory between 2004 - 2008 , several months ago i completed an analysis of all ridings and her average margin of victory is 33 %. which is similar to margins of victory for conservative mp's in rural western canada, as an example core tory seats like Brandon Souris and Okanagan Coquilla has average margins of victory in 30% range . and even if her vote goes down there is 4 candidates running against her to split the vote , extremely small chance one of them gets more than her as she has been above 50% of vote past few elections. sorry but the only way the conservatives would lose this seat is if John Tory were to run here.
    11 04 18 Catwoman 38
    Liberals have a chance to unseat Cheryl Gallant because she ranted out on the radio Candidate debate because the Green Candidate was later submitting in their forms for it. Meanwhile, she comes across rude to her constituents, and does not listen to the voters. I have heard complaints about her misleading the voters, and she has a hard time following orders from Harper.
    11 04 18 joey joe joe
    Here's hoping Hec can beat the most embarrassing MP on the hill. Recent performance in the debates is just the tip of the iceberg of odd quotes and behaviour.
    11 04 18 Matt
    You've got to be kidding me. Too Close To Call? Cheryl may be a loose cannon, and her antics may hurt the party nationally, but she's very much loved in the Valley. There is no way Clouthier will take this. He's further splitting the 30% of the vote Cheryl doesn't win. Solid Conservative win, 60% of votes cast.
    11 04 18 Johnboy
    In the previous election, Ms. Gallant's parliamentary ineffectiveness and lack of participation in the all candidates meetings were largely overlooked, at least as I could tell by talking to people at the time.
    This time around, in what should have been a slam dunk for the CPC, Ms. Gallant's recent gaffes and radio walk out have sparked a lot of media attention and local interest. She seems to be thought of as an embarrassment to the riding, and Hec (as well as the others) seem to be more than willing to point this out. The only saving grace for Ms. Gallant will be the LPC, NDP, and to a lesser extent Greens, siphoning votes away from Hec, but he seems to have good momentum going in to the home stretch.... I know a lot of RNP fingers will be crossed come election night...
    11 04 18 Stray
    Walking out of radio debate isn't going to do Cheryl Gallant any favours. It is rapidly becoming a comedy of errors.
    11 04 16 TCTC
    It's time for this riding to be put in the TCTC column (contrary to all the posts by people not even from this riding according to their IP addresses)!
    For the first time in a decade Cheryl is getting a run for her money and the press is nothing but negative at every possible opportunity.
    The Citizen is backing Hec, the Eganville Leader is backing Hec, and the Pembroke Observer is even writing about how much Cheryl is taking a beating!
    For her own part, Cheryl started the year telling widows in Newfoundland that they shouldn't expect the Coast Guard to save their family members out at sea, for which the Prime Minister himself, in a rare show of not standing by his caucus members - Geurgis aside, called Cheryl's comments ‘unacceptable and quite frankly incomprehensible.’
    Cheryl then kicked off the campiagn by referring to Micheal Ignatieff as ‘Igaffi’ in an apparent reference to the brutal dictator in Libya, only to turn around hours later and retract her comments and apologize - again embarassing herself and the riding on the national stage.
    Hec Clouthier signs are blanketing the riding, he's been winning each and every debate without question, and this former Liberal MP in the riding and staffer in Chretien's PMO is hammering away at Cheryl for not getting rid of the long arms registry as promised in 2000, for voting in favour of the HST while her provincial conservative counterpart voted against it, and for towing the party line instead of the riding's wishes.
    In Petawawa, the provincial government's new energy legislation is allowing for a hydro electric damn project to be proposed for the Petawawa River against the municipalities wishes - and very much against the local population's wishes. Hec is the ONLY candidate who has said ‘NO’ - a pretty simple answer - while the other candidates, Cheryl included, want to see studies and more consultation - Hec says NO and is alone in his convictions.
    The one thing about rural ridings is that they are the most likely ridings to be of an independent mind and want their voice heard - this is the campaign Hec is running - a vote for him is a voice for the riding. Anyone who thinks this doesn't resonate with the locals who have been stiffed by Gallant on gun control, the GST, and now corporate tax cuts (not that many coporations in truly rural riding) needs to take a trip to the Ottawa Valley and see Hector's support first hand.
    Lawn signs for Hec are everywhere, people are saying how much they are fed up with Cheryl, the editorials and newspaper columns are supporting Hec, the debates, including the one at the Outdoor Sportsmans's Club - traditionally Cheryl's crowd - are actually jeering Cheryl, and the locals are fed up with being talked down to by Ottawa and Toronto.
    This riding could be the surprise of Election night. And to the person that suggested that a horse could get 60% of the votes here... even if Hec doesn't win, Cheryl's popularity is about to dive - not take a hit - DIVE.
    Cheryl was elected as the People's MP to ride into Ottawa and get rid of gun control, and talk about abortion, and stop gay marriage. She was truly great in opposition where she could preach from high atop the mountain about the Liberal's laying siege to the countryside.
    Now in government, Harper wont even let MPs talk about gay marriage or abortion. Cheryl was in office for nearly a decade when a first term colleague of her tried to scrap gun control via a private members bill - I guess Cheryl doesn't know how to write her own private members bill - and the riding is getting tired of getting nowhere with Cheryl who is now nothing more than Harper puppet complete with embarassing momemnts and gun control still the law of the land.
    Everyone on here will be surprised how well Hec does as an Independent on Election Night, and as for Cheryl getting another 60% of the vote... in your dreams... it simply will not happen.
    11 04 15 VC winner
    The Conservatives can run a monkey in this riding and still win by 60%. Unless the Liberal's run that horse that was on the CFB Petawawa's Payroll back in the 60's, then they might have a shot.
    11 04 11 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Hec, the former Liberal MP, is running as an Independent. I've done a check of various Independent's running and beyond the 5 we all talk about, he is the only one that stands any chance of getting more than 1% of the vote.
    11 04 10 SouthpawPundit
    Last time Cloutier and Gallant faced off, Gallant had little trouble winning. The Tories would have to be in the 20s in Ontario for her to lose. It's a shame the Tories run such ignorant candidates in their strongholds. If they want to emphasize pride in being Canadian, they're going to have an uphill battle with national embarrassments like David Sweet, Cheryl Gallant, and Rob Anders in their caucus.
    11 04 10 Cade Suffolk
    Two loud mouthed embarrassments go head to head and this time Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembrooke voters might just ‘give 'em Hec’. This is a riding that votes against Ottawa and Cloutier is on the right side of the fence this time. Hec will have no trouble picking up votes from Gallant's Reform base, while also picking up loose Liberal and NDP votes from anti-Harper voters who don't want to waste their votes on an also-ran. Gallant's strongest support will actually come from the Big C Harper Tory voters who probably voted against her in 2000. Local Tories want a better candidate and are saying so. If Gallant does win this time, she is almost certainly toast when she has to defend her nomination after redistribution.
    11 04 08 Tony Ducey
    Gallant is a MP that makes you wonder: How Does She Keep Getting Re-elected? Every time she speaks it seems she offends someone, that said she will win again here in 2011.
    11 03 29 C.A.B.
    Without question, it's an uphill climb for Clouthier. Gallant won here last time with 61% of the vote - the best finish of any candidate in Ontario and the only one above 60%. Not to mention that Clouthier lost here as an independent in 1993, and, of course, was defeated by Gallant in 2000. That's 2000, the year that Stockwell Day bombed big time and the Liberals won 100 seats in Ontario. No doubt, Clouthier will put a dent in Gallant's numbers, and may well finish second, as he did in 1993. But I just can't see him winning, though I think he will end her streak of having the top Tory result in the province.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This has been the Tories best showing in Ontario in the past three elections thus unless one is predicting they will get shut out of Ontario, they will win this and I don't think anyone not even the staunchest partisan expects them to lose every seat in Ontario.
    11 03 28 Identity Crisis
    Not sure I qualify as a partisan having voted for three parties in 5 elections. Was a Liberal until Cheryl came along swinging hard against gun control. Sadly her bandwagon seems to have left everyone at the alter as she fails miserably to represent the people in government. All her talk of scrapping gun control and it took a first time backbencher to even put forward a lowly private members bill which was unlikely to pass without the full force of the Harper government behind it.
    We also get talk about selling AECL, she refuses to listen to the local municipalities who have all voted to support giving the Ottawa River a historical designation, she watches hundreds of millions of dollars travel across the river to Quebec for forestry and not steal a dime for her own forest industry here at home, etc., etc. etc.! Simply put, she is useless for us! She can't produce and is maligned by her own party members. Just this past winter she was rebuked by Harper after saying something stupid in Newfoundland about them having to save themselves instead of using the Coasr Guard - now really, when was the last time any of the party leaders actually made someone apologize? I mean really... So I'm done with Cheryl and her useless drum beating.
    So now we have Hector Clouthier running as an independent which is interesting because he really is a rural minded fellow, but went down on his sword over gun control while a Liberal MP. Now he says screw the parties, he wants to represent the people! An interesting notion, but made even more interesting by the fact that in a minority he can be quite effecrive - look at everything that Quebec indendent has got for his support of Harper! So with Clouthier remding people that Cheryl is ineffective, that she coted for the HST, and that she cant seem to get a dime of money for the riding's industries... tough call!
    I would point out as well that in the 1993 Liberal sweep of Ontario, Hec ran as an Independent back then against Len Hopkins (a Liberal first elected in the 1960s) and got over 20% of the vote to come in second! That unquestionablyt huge for any independent candidate.
    So now we have Hec, a former MP, taking on Gallant who beat him by only a couple thousand votes in 2000. He has greater name recognition, has experience, had a lot of good claims against Cheryl's record, and no Harper sweep of Ontario to protect her like Len had in 1993. Hector clearly pulled conservative voted in 1993 as an Independent (Len dropped literally only a few percent from 1988 so it wasn't Liberal votes that got Hec to 20%), won as a Liberal in 1997, and can now look at both Cheryl and the Liberals and say I am my own man, I wouldnt have voted for the HST like you did, I am ready and willing to scrap the gun registry having apologized for his mistake in the 1990s... it could be a perfect storm? He has also been campaigning full out since last summer - and I mean everywhere and hard like a US year long election!
    And lets face it, if Rahim Jaffer can lose in Alberta, anything is possible!
    PS - the NDP hasn't even bothered to pick a candidate yet and the Liberals are running a lawyer from Toronto with family ties to the Valley... anyone want to take a stab at how that will fly? And if those supporters didnt pick Cheryl in 2000, 2004, 2006 or 2008 - its a good bet that Hector will start off in second despite being just an Independent!
    11 03 28 Bryan
    I think Hec Clouthier has a good shot at winning this riding as an independent. Incumbent Conservative Cheryl Gallant has made a series of embarrassing statements over the years and seems to have turned her back on the people who initially supported her -- Harper issued a swift rebuke on her lastest outburst.
    11 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Thank you Pure Whig, we appreciate your honesty and insight. We would like to hear other's opinions on Hec Cloutier, especially those who identify themselves as non-partisan. Not to discredit any partisan's view (Pure Whig, yours seemed very ballanced and reasonable) but often we are biased and tend to associate with those of a similar bias. We just want to get a more complete picture here.
    11 03 25 Pure Whig
    I'm totally partisan, and live in the southern end of the riding. All I can say at this point is that I expect Gallant to win. Clouthier has no traction in the Arnprior-Renfrew area. He polled well here back in 1993 when he was last running independently. However, looking at the polls he did best in it appears to me he took a considerable number of disgruntled Tory votes in what was then a dogs breafast election for conservatives.
    In the following two elections as a Liberal he won only over a divided right which has really fallen in step behind Cheryl. Her support in these vote rich areas is secure.
    She will hold the south end of the county well. I predict that Hec will not do well in the Eganville Barry's Bay Coridore. He will syphone off Liberal Votes in Deep River, and Cobden to Pembroke. Pembroke will be the area to watch.
    Turn out among military voters in Petawawa is alwo certain to favour the incumbent. I'll make a call and update when the campain is really up and running.
    11 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Was looking at the website for Hec Cloutier and he is coming on fast and hard on Cheryl Gallant. From the outside it sounds like he may strike a chord with the voters going for the independant populist idea. Are there any non-partisans from the riding who can offer any insight on his chances?
    10 10 04 SRN
    Cheryl is a good fit with the riding--Hec is not. Not many loggers, farmers, or ice fishermen wear bowties. Hec should further divide the Liberal vote, with the result that Cheryl should coast to a 40+ percentage point win.
    10 09 02 R.O.
    The race here is at least more unusual than before with former liberal mp Hec Clouthier running as an independent . but its questionable that residents will really believe he is now against the long gun registry as he was a strong supporter of former PM Jean Chretien who created it. Cheryl Gallant's position has not ever changed on the issue and she will be voting in support of the Candice Hoeppners private members bill . it should also be noted that the liberals have not abandoned the riding and Christine Tabbert still appears to be running a campaign and had Ignatieff in the riding for an event. so there is still some liberals here oddly enough , even though there vote has been going down in recent elections in the riding. As for Hec Clouthier i'm unsure where his votes will be coming from and if they mostly come from the liberals and ndp it would seem he's just spliting the vote. if he manages to get any conservative votes things could get more interesting but i'd expect most to come at the expense of the liberals as there is only so many anti - cpc voters in this rural riding. i'm familar with this riding and expect it to stay conservative but Cheryl Gallant might not be able to win by as large a margin as in past elections.
    10 07 11 R. Godin
    I think this riding, for the first time in a decade, has to be placed in the too close to call category for the time being. In June, former Liberal MP Hec Clouthier threw his fedora in the ring and has been going after both the Liberals and Federal Conservatives like a bloodhound! Clouthier is absolutely slamming Cheryl at every opportunity for voting in favour of the HST in December, he is slamming Iggy for forcing his caucus to also support the HST, he is absolutely lambasting Cheryl for her party's position on AECL Chalk River as they talk of privatizing AECL and the recent budget threw money at all kinds of nuclear facilities EXCEPT AECL Chalk River. Hec's line - what good is a gov't MP if she can't produce and is muzzled by the Prime Minister. Cheryl, which is her typical campaign style, has done nothing but stay quiet, but Hector will swing away unlike recent Liberal candidates that have tried to take the high road instead of going after Cheryl's record of inaction. And to top it all off, Hec has done a mea culpa on the gin control issue stating he was forced by his party to vote in favour of it, but as an independent he wont have to do anything but work for his riding. And what about Cheryl's decade of inaction on gun control - her opposition to which got her elected in 2000? Hector is going after that as well - 5 years in opposition, 5 years in gov't and Cheryl still presides over a riding under the same gun control law (and hasn't even put forward an private members bill like other colleagues have in her party).
    There is simply no question that Hector shakes up this riding into something interesting - Cheryl is no guarantee, the Liberals are probably out, Hector is a wildman... I mean wildcard...
    09 10 12 Bernard Manning
    The whole Arnprior-Pembroke-Petawawa-Chalk River corridor is booming with a massive influx of Federal money in the $M100s+ range to CFB Petawawa and AECL Chalk River which is the hub of the riding's economy. Afghanistan and radioactive isotopes are welcome news to the good old boys in this neck of the woods, so long neglected by the Liberals.
    09 09 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Chalk River is such a small and insignificant part of this riding that if the Liberals did make a big stink about it, it still wouldn't put a dent in Gallant's numbers. As for the logging industry, the bulk of the population lives further south in the farming region of the Ottawa Valley and not the lumbering areas further north. Again, not much of a concern to the voters. Gallant is the right MP for the people that live in ?the valley?. They are the churchy, family-values crowd (where else can you find a resturant shaped like Noah's ark?) who are quite concerned with social-conservative issues. There are many liberal-minded individuals who hail from this region that migrate to ?liberal? North Bay (!) to escape what they see as small-town closed-mindedness. No, it would take something on the order of an act of God to stop Gallant and the conservatives from taking this riding.
    09 09 09 JD00
    The only hope that the liberals could possibly have in RNP would be to hammer the conservatives, both locally and nationally, on the Chalk River fiasco as well as the collapse of the logging industry, but given that Ms. Gallant failed to take part in several of the riding debates and still ran away with the riding, this may be the safest riding east of Alberta for the conservatives.
    09 09 06 A.S.
    And RNP's inexorable advance(?) from being a bastion of Pearsonian Canadian Shield Liberalism to being Wasilla-on-the-Opeongo continued as Cheryl Gallant finally broke the 60% threshold and virtually no Liberal polls remained beyond Deep River. How does she do it? But because it's all explained through populism, it could just as well be a non-Tory, even an NDPer, who replaces Gallant whenever she retires...
    09 09 06 A.S.
    And RNP's inexorable advance(?) from being a bastion of Pearsonian Canadian Shield Liberalism to being Wasilla-on-the-Opeongo continued as Cheryl Gallant finally broke the 60% threshold and virtually no Liberal polls remained beyond Deep River. How does she do it? But because it's all explained through populism, it could just as well be a non-Tory, even an NDPer, who replaces Gallant whenever she retires...
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Gallant is too firmly entrenched here. The idea of the Liberal candidate closing a 19,000 vote gap is very, very doubtful.
    11 04 28 Jake I
    Why do you think the cons run the big C in this riding? Because it is the only place she can win. I give her 60+ per cent this election. Run anyone else they would get 85+ per cent.

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