Prediction Changed
3:32 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Devine, Carole
Gagné, Denis
Gallant, Cheryl
Hoffman, Ben
New Democratic
McSheffrey, Sue

Cheryl Gallant

2006 Result:
Cheryl Gallant **
Don Lindsay
Sue McSheffrey
Gordon Scott McLeod
Paul Kelly

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 Watching it closlely
As the polls close from east to west across Canada, I predict the this will be the first seat won by a Conservative before the Ontario eastern border. I have traveled extensively throughout this election and have watched things very carefully. Two things are happening as I even write this posting. First, the polarization along two ideologies has become even more prominent than during the Mulroney let term period. Secondly though a concerted ABC - anyone but Conservative spirit has caught on prompted by the economy. It is fitting that the COnservative's first seat woudl be that of such a weak MP - who remains independently strong in this riding.
08 10 12 Pure Whig
*Disclaimer, Federally I would vote for a donkey if you branded it with a big C’
I agree with the last two posts on the issue of Devine's popularity in this riding. I've canvassed in this riding since 1993 in Pembroke, Renfrew, and Arnprior. While the latter two will safely hold for Cheryl, my own oppinion is that she will lose or draw even in Pembroke Town. My sence from people I have talked to in Eganville is that they are seeing some ‘hometown’ support for the wife of the local Chemist there too. Add in the blue rural areas and I see Gallant winning by 8-10,000.
Fact check -The post of 080912 states the Lindsey ran in 2004 and Jamison in 2006 which of course is backwards.
Also Matt M correctly states that this riding has always had a strong Conservative base, however he also states that it was Liberal for 60 years. Yes Renfrew North my well have been, but Renfrew South was Conservative from 1957-68, and again from 1972-1993. In addition provincially Renfrew North was Tory from about 1943-1975; while between 1943-1999 Renfrew South was Liberal provincially for only 2 years in the sixties due to Quilty's byelction win.
My rambling point being that RNP is a riding with a strong Tory as well as Grit background. With the abandonment of rural issues by the Liberals federally, both major parites provincially, and the lack of a strong NDP presence or tradition in the area, this is area is going to be blue for the forseeable future.
08 09 25 Matt M
It will be interesting to see how well a very popular Carol Devine will do here, but there is no chance she can wrestle this seat from Cheryl.
I've been watching this riding for a long time and grew up there. For any people who say that stopping SSM in the communities closer to Ottawa or that the seat is becoming more conservative by the hour, or referring to her success as ADQesque or as a result of being a Quebec-hinterland, you are wrong. This riding has always been as conservative as it is, and was held by the Liberals for 80 years. The issue that changed this riding from Liberal to Conservative was the gun registry. Of course, other issues such as Shawinigate and taxes were of concern here, but it was the gun registry that propelled Cheryl to beat out a popular Liberal incumbent. Had the PC Party not supported the gun registry, the conservative vote likely would have remained split giving Hec Clouthier an easy win, but their decision resulted in the PCs losing 2/3 of their vote, all of which went to the Alliance candidate and current incumbent. It's as easy as this - make hunters angry and they will vote you out.
08 09 12
This will be another easy win for Cheryl Gallant. She connects well with voters and has built up a base of support in her own right.
I will say though I think the margin of victory will be smaller than her last blow out.
My theory on this is that neither Lindsey (2004) or Jamieson (2006) really had strong community roots. Lindsey's claim to fame seemed to be that his father and grandfather had both been defeated as Liberal candidates in the past (prompting my cousin to remark, ‘Yep, Grandpa voted against his Grandfather, our dads voted against is a family tradition’).
Rob Jamieson was a serious candidate - articulate, well versed on issues, and quite an honourable man. This aside his roots in Eganville were shallow (he took 2 polls I think - Correct me if I'm wrong). His family background in Renfrew didn't seem to help him there either.
Neither of these men were able to make a dent anywhere in the riding. Yes I know they did well in Deep River, but they brought in no new votes.
Carol Devine on the other hand has strong roots in the city of Pembroke, and I think this will tell strongly in this area.
It won't be enough though. The only hope the Liberals have in Renfrew County is that when Cheryl decides to leave they pick another Rob Jamieson, and the Tories elect a weak candidate
08 09 11 Robert Jones
An easy win for the CPC. This riding seems to really love their MP even if the media and the opposition doesn't
08 03 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
A.S.: Living in the adjacent riding to the north (at least Dr Bear does now), you seldom hear about Chalk River (except in the national news). Driving down that way, if you blink, you'll miss the town. The larger population base (and voting base) is in the further southern communities closer to Ottawa. In many of these communities, stopping SSM is (and other such so-con issues) a far more important issue that nuclear safety. In light of that, we don't think the whole Chalk River fuss will have any impact what so ever and Gallant keeps on winning with gianormous margins.
08 02 02 A.S.
The seat includes Chalk River, and nobody's yet speculated on what impact that whole fuss might have? Then again, Cheryl Gallant's the sort who'd likely withstand a Chalk River crisis as efficiently as, provincially, Bill Murdoch withstood the Walkerton crisis...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Cheryl Gallant is a huge liability to the CPC as a whole, but her hard right views seem to help her more than hurt her here. I can only assume we are seeing what we saw with the ADQ in Quebec, otherwise rural regions are tired of Toronto calling all the shots and will choose which ever candidate is the most opposite to your stereotypical Torontonian, which Cheryl Gallant certainly is.
07 04 02 Stevo
safest Conservative seat in the province, part of the Eastern Ontario bluewave that claimed every seat in the region in 2006 save Kingston and a couple inner-city Ottawa ridings. Cheryl Gallant is no more nutty in her right-wing rhetoric than Judy Sgro and Heddy Fry are in their left-wing rhetoric - but unlike the latter two, Gallant won't be getting a Cabinet post for her efforts.
07 04 01 A.S.
Hard to believe that a scant ten years ago, a ReformAllianceConservative win in RNP seemed near-impossible--in effect, what happened was a preview of the Adequiste phenomenon: Quebec-bordering hinterland with a French-Canadian/Roman Catholic accent that once appeared so unassailably ‘left’, turned out to have a good deal of Herouxville-style pur laine populist fear to it. So, not only did Cheryl Gallant conquer the turf, she solidified it through a rendition of Super Marioesque fear-fanning--but coarser, given that this is English rather than French Canada. Surely, Stephen Harper must have been watching and strategizing long ago; even if Cheryl Gallant is laughable as a cabinet prospect, she's a cornerstone of her party's overall electoral strategy. If that sounds ominous, maybe it is. But she'll only be defeated if the party's wiped out in Ontario
07 03 25 G. Kennedy (not that one)
Cheryl Gallant has garnered a reputation as one of the most laughable MPs in the House of Commons. But that doesn't matter in this riding, which she managed to win in 2000 (!) and seems deadset in turning more conservative by the hour.
07 03 24 Daniel
Given that this was one of only two ridings in Ontario that the Alliance won in 2000, and that Cheryl Gallant has been MP ever since, I'm quite sure the Conservatives will have no problem holding this seat.

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