Update/Mise à jour:
8:28 AM 09/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:39 AM 02/05/2005
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Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



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Candidates/candidats:
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Conservative/conservateur
Cheryl Gallant
Independent
Paul Kelly
Libearl/libéral
Don Lindsay
Green/Vert
Gordon Scott McLeod
NDP/NPD
Sue McSheffrey

Incumbent/Député:
Cheryl Gallant

2004 Result/Résultats:
Cheryl Gallant
27494
Rob Jamieson
14798
Sue McSheffrey
5720
Gordon S McLeod
1191
Stanley Sambey
714

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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08 01 06 HP
My prediction is still sticking with Cheryl Gallant but controversy is the name of the game once again for Gallant. This time with allegations that she breached the privacy of several local constituents by recording their birth dates from Passport Applications and then sending out birthday cards when the dates came around.
Another development is the addition of an independent candidate, Paul Kelly to the list of candidates. Kelly is an ex-Conservative staffer who is a bit disgruntled with the lack of responsible candidates to chose from in this election and is running on a platform of "I'm tired and frustrated if you are too then vote for me." Watch for Kelly to put a small dent in Gallant's armour. Will it be enough for the Liberals or NDP to capitalize on? Time will tell.
21 12 05 A.S.
Here's some perspective. For all of her so-called shortcomings, Cheryl Gallant not only got the best CPC result E of the Manitoba border, she fared better, percentage-wise, than *any* Ontario Liberal outside of the inner GTA. And in a former longtime (even 1984!) Liberal seat, yet, where the city of Pembroke once looked like Tory kryptonite. Who'd a thunk it? Though if her share sinks this time, I wouldn't be too surprised, at least in the name of sobriety...
17 12 05 HP
Cheryl Gallant is very strong in this riding and it should be an easy victory for her. The battle going on right now is really for second place and the way things are going in the weak Liberal camp it could be the strong NDP Candidate coming in second. New rumours surfaced this week about a possible independent candidate running after all. No names were available but strong rumours support the thought that it is former Liberal MP Hec Clouthier. So far Gallant has been behaving herself sticking 100% to the book, something I'm sure Harper is happy with.
17 12 05 Rusty
A walk for Gallant. As mentioned, she can do no wrong, even if she makes national news and goes into hiding for a few days on the orders of the party HQ.
This riding is a bellweather for most Conservatives in rural Ontario. They love the socially-conservative, "hands off my money" candidate and HATE Stephen Harper. They vote for the candidate in spite of the leader (much like what many Lib candidates relied on last election).
Gallant will increase her margin in this election. And if Harper loses his SECOND election, look for the Tories like the ones in this riding to put up the call for new leadership.
08 12 05 RBS
The things that make her a national embarrassment and a liability for the National PC Party (I wonder if the party will allow her to speak this election??), actually make her more popular in this riding - go figure...
01 12 05 Robert Jones
The Conservative Candidate is much loved by her supporters. RNP is a largely rural riding with socially conservative views. This was one of only two Ontario ridings to go Alliance in 2000. Conservative support is strong here.
16 10 05 MF
Almost definitely Tory. The PC-Alliance merger wasn't as successful as its proponents had hoped, but nowhere did it succeed more than it did in Eastern Ontario, the most conservative region of the province. Some critics of the merger said a united right would be too scary for supposedly moderate Ontario voters. But not in Eastern Ontario. While the image of the patrician socially liberal PC voter was somewhat true in the GTA, it's certainly not the case in Eastern Ontario.
25 05 05
Cheryl's riding of Renfrew Nipissing Pembroke is a shoe in for her. This is probably the safest conservative riding outside of Alberta, and certainly the safest riding in Ontario. The latest polls have her pegged at 65% and climbing. Too bad for the conservatives that they don't have this charisma elsewhere in Ontario.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
I agree with Craig, this is a very socially conservative riding. Economically, the riding might want to vote Liberal, but today's issues are Social ones not Economic ones (why the tories do poorly in the cities) and that means a tory won here.
This was the best ontario riding for the CPC in 2004, 55% of the vote. In 2000 (using old results and the new map, very similar results using the old map anyway) the alliance would have won by taking 44% of the vote here compared to 39% for the liberals, throw in the PC party and that 44% becomes 56%.
in 1997, reform took 27% and the tories, 25%. the Liberals only managed 40%. This riding will go tory for the simple fact that this riding will go tory. Gallant is just a bonus I suppose.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
As much as Cheryl Gallant is a liability for the Conservative Party, they seem to love her in Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke where she had the best showing in Ontario for the Conservatives. Her stauch social conservative views help the Conservatives in her riding, but hurt them elsewhere. If I was Harper I would encourage her to keep her mouth shut about social conservative issues except when phone banking and door knocking. That will ensure the Social Conservatives show up on voting day and give her another massive majority without harming Conservative candidates in urban ridings that don't like her social conservatism.
26 04 05 Craig
The more Cheryl Gallant speaks out against abortion and gay marriage, the more votes she gets here. This is definitely a riding where "moral values" reign supreme, and that means Gallant should increase her margin even more, no matter what happens on the national stage. What was a Liberal stronghold for decades has turned into a hardline Conservative area where even George W. Bush would have likely done quite well in! What will be interesting to see is if the NDP beats the Liberals. Predicted results: CPC 61%, NDP 18%, LIB 17%, GRN 3%.



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