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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:11 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:21 PM 17/03/2004

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Cheryl Gallant
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Rob Jamieson
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Gordon McLeod
Sue McSheffrey
Parti Marijuana Party:
Stanley Sambey

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke (100.0%)
Cheryl Gallant

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,315 44.21%
17,878 38.91%
5,230 11.38%
1,581 3.44%
943 2.05%

(203/203 polls, 72244/72244 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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17/06/04 Rural Canadian
Email: [hidden]
The Cheryl Gallant campaign grows stronger by the day. Team Martin's first all-candidates meeting was a stunning embarrassment. Hector and Betsy (read Tracy) are both campaigning behind jamie's back as the infighting continues between the factions of a local lib party still divided by the Clouthier legacy and a very bitter nomination fight.
Local voters are smart enough to see a smear campaign. Scott Reid and Cheryl Gallant were targetted by the Grit brain trust. They had quotes made up if she had not been lured to the CTV interview by a complicit reporter/grit operative. While the Liberals think talking about abortion and same sex marriage gets them votes, this campaign strategy has backfired completely in Ontario. Traditional Catholic voters in Ontario will vote en masse for the Conservatives thanks to the hate campaign that has elevated Cheryl Gallant to the status of martyr. The abortion issue is actually sending more voters to vote conservative, including women. Public declarations by liberal MPS like Bob Kilger that they are anti-abortion shows how scared they are of losing their seats over this issue.
14/06/04 Brian Long
Just an update: Cheryl skipped out on her third debate this morning on the NewRO... it seems she wants to get re-elected about as much as Harper wants her to keep talking!
13/06/04 G J
Email: [hidden]
Cheryl has absolutely blown this riding out of her grasp. While some of what she has said does float with some residents, she has virtually eliminated the younger audience and pretty well everyone who believes in a woman's right to choose. She has also elimintaed homosexuals and their friends and family. I mean is she trying to get votes or see how close she can let Liberal candidate Rob Jamieson get? Word has it that a former PC candidate is also going to come out in support of Rob - remember, most tories jumped ship the last time, any remaining PC supporters in the riding didn't jump on Cheryl's ship for a reason so to suggest that all the PC voters will vote Conservative is actually wishful thinking. The ship is sinking, and Cheryl is at the helm. I'm also a gun owner and now that Rob has agreed long guns should not be part of this new found gun control movement, its safe to say I can vote Liberal again.
12/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
Yes, Cheryl Gallant is a loose cannon. But does anyone really really believe that any sitting CPC member in Ontario is going to lose their seat especailly when they are running neck and neck with the Liberals right now. Not a chance.
08/06/04 Brian Long
Email: [hidden]
Well Cheryl did it again - now she is comparing abortion to that absolutely horendous beheading of that poor American civilian. AND she failed to attend an all candidtes debate Monday in Renfrew - I assume that the woman has been censored by the party brass and told to keep quiet. But thats not Cheryl's style and now she is out with yet another comment - both of which can be found at www.ctv.ca in the news section and under election coverage. First she's against gays and now she is disrespecting Americans. Alliance supporters may think that people are looking for change, but they will never convince me that they will chose incompetance over a very bright and hard working Liberal candidate in Rob Jamieson. There are surprises in every election and so there is no reason to think that of Gallant keeps talking like she is and skipping debates that her defeat and a Liberal pick up wont be the surprise in Eastern Ontario. Liberals may be sinking, but ROB is the better candidate by far.
08/06/04 Don't Rock the Boat
This riding will not vote liberal, has no real strong NDP pressence and won't mind the ignorant rantings of their malcontent MP. Therefore I predict that this riding shall elect the only Independant MP, as I doubt that Gallant will still be in her party by election day. Certainly she will be in the nosebleed seats, regardless of which side of the aisle she sits on; but she will be re-elected...this time.
08/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
Well, it was bound to happen. Cheryl opened that big mouth of hers and jumped in with both feet by suggesting that homosexuals are pedophiles. I'm not saying that she's going to lose, but hate-speak like that doesn't sit well, particularly in Ontario. Rural ridings are not as conservative in their social views as everyone thinks. They also aren't without their share of homosexuals who don't like being threatened, harassed, or compared to child molesters. Things just got a lot better for Mr. Jamieson.
06/06/04 Rural Canadian
Email: [hidden]
This race is going to be a total blowout in favour of Cheryl Gallant. The consensus in the Riding is that she has done a good job as M.P. Regardless of what the grit's frat buddies from Carleton write to this site, he has no money, no signs, no workers and no hope. His telling the Ottawa Citizen that he is in favour of gay rights and the court legalizing same-sex marriage has members of his own family not supporting him. Word is rival Clouthier ordered all his supporters to stay home on election day to prepare for his second coming after jamie is totally embarrassed and Martin is sent back to the Barbados...
06/06/04 Brian D.
Email: bdavidson2003@hotmail.com
Well Cheryl has now started nailing her own coffin shut. She made headlines this weekend, but not those that she was seeking. Speaking on behalf of the Conservative Party (well she said she was speaking on behalf of the caucus, the caucus says she was speaking for herself... figure that one out will ya!) Cheryl said the caucus would repeal bill c-250 which puts "sexual orientation" under the hate crime legislation... apparently Cheryl thinks homosexuals should not be protected, a view most people in Canada today don't share. While I admit marriage is a hotly contested issue, hate crimes are pretty universally condemned. Cheryl is out of touch with her constituents, out of touch with Canadians, and NOW out of touch with her own party... she squeaked by in 2000 because of a not so well liked Liberal candidate, now she's running on her own steam against a very respected and well liked rural Liberal candidate who opposes gun control on rifles (hand guns are the problem afterall) and who wants a brighter future not muddled with yelling and unorthodox comments by a Conservative MP. It will be close, but it will be Liberal.
05/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
A real case of "the more embarrassing she gets, the more re-electable she gets"--but if the 2004 election's turning out the way it looks, Gallant's steal of what had been such a Liberal stronghold that it withstood the '84 Mulroney landslide looks like 2000's biggest portent of all. And as some observers point out, this practically Northern Ontarioesque frontieresque seat may even portend more Tory seats in the "true North" than there've been in an eternity--even those which "ought to have" swung NDP his time around...
28/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Slur against Bill Graham notwithstanding, this Reform party type will get in. Could use more class, but every party has individuals who attack below the belt. In fact, the Liberals have a bunch of them. I would never vote Conservative, but this one is a lock.
19/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Loud-mouth embarrassments always seem to get re-elected, especially in predominantly rural ridings. It gives them that "ordinary person" touch. Just look at Ralph Klein! Now we are dealing with a riding that is naturally Conservative, and don't anyone dare try to tell us otherwise. This is THE ONLY riding that went from Liberal to Conservative in the great red tide in the Ontario election last year. That Liberal government has just tabled a budget which breaks the promise of no new taxes. Does anyone really think that with this, and the many many many other fiascos, the Liberals have a chance of winning this seat? Do they really have any chance of winnign any new seats anywhere in the country? Not likely.
11/05/04 Sarge
Email: [hidden]
Ms. Gallant may be a big mouthed embarrassment but that doesn't mean she will lose. For Rob to win, he needs to the scandal not to steal any of his voters away from him and to win more than half of the 2000 PC vote. Unlikely. If even half of 2000 PC votes vote Conservative, the combined total will equal about 50% for the CPC. Rob may be a nice guy but he will not be an MP this time around.
03/05/04 Alan
Email: alanreid@canada.com
I do believe this riding will stay conservative. I live in Arnprior at the extreme eastern end of the riding and from who I have been talking to, people are quite pleased with the job Cheryl Gallant is doing. They see her as R-N-P's advocate in the house of commons and a hard worker for her constituents. She has also been quite visible in the riding as it is not far from Ottawa, she is always in the papers (columns and such) and at most civic events (just talking about Arnprior here). It will be a tough fight with the liberal candidate to be sure as he is indeed better than Hec Clouthier but I think that the recent sponsorship scandal has only entrenched this riding's feelings towards Liberals.
03/05/04 R.J.
Email: [hidden]
I've done door-to-door canvassing in the city of Renfrew and let me tell you Ms. Gallant won last time around because of the carelessness of the incumbant alone. No angry flukes this time, she will not be re-elected as the incumbant this time. Residence I have spoken to (as well as my aunt who lives in Chalk River are anxious to see their community returned to teh government side of life, not exile.
Refrew-Nippising-Pembroke will have a member of government next time around and hopefully with better representation.
03/05/04 Westminster System
Email: westminstersystem@hotmail.com
Too early to call, but Gallant's continuous embarassment marks Upper Valleyland as the *only* real chance of a Liberal pickup (Brian Masse is so holding Windsor West) from Cornwall to - at best Winnipeg, at worst…
01/05/04 Sara Evans
Email: evans_s2001@yahoo.com
I think this riding should be at least moved to the "too close to call" column if not a Liberal win. I think its clear just by the messages left so on thsi board that Gallant has nothing to run on. People suggest she'll win because she's the incumbant, because she was one of only 2 Alliance MPs elected in Ontario in 2000, because the Liberals are falling in the polls... well lets be honest, what does that have to do with her getting re-elected? Seriously people! She has embarassed the riding time and time again. She doesn't think people she opens that mouth of hers. The defense minister has had to publicly correct her false statements, she swore in the House of Commons and then denied it for a week before apologizing, she has even suggested that the Prime Minister's office is out to get her in some big conspiracy. She has offered nothing, she has given nothing.
Her opponent Rob Jamieson is a young guy out of Eganville - should pick up the rural vote easier than the last Lib MP Hec Clouthier could in 2000. He is close to Paul Martin, has nothing to do with the scandal, is well educated, and is even the VP of the Liberal Party of Canada (Ontario) which must give him a great deal of political resources. The next election will focus on the future and Gallant has nothing to run on to suggest she will be useful in the opposition benches again. Liberal numbers are up nationally and I doubt RNP will want to spend another four years in opposition.
This is at least too close to call, likely a Liberal win.
22/04/04 Mike
Email: snowstormcanuck@yahoo.com
"For the provincial level here in Ontario, this riding has always voted Tory."
Buddy, from 1975 to 2003 this was solid Liberal territory under the honourable Sean Conway. Get your facts straight.
That being said, overall, it is a very small c conservative part of Ontario. The Tory incumbent should be re-elected without much trouble.
14/04/04 B. Barker
Email: brendanbarker@excite.com
Conservatives will take it. Take a look at the past votes here. For the provincial level here in Ontario, this riding has always voted Tory. Im pretty sure the citizens in this riding will turn tory in the next Federal election.
03/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Derek's enthusiasm is palpable...yes indeed...I agree that this is exactly the kind of riding that a Montreal millionaire like Martin would call "near home".
But returning to the planet earth, this riding would be near to last in Martin's heart. Too many issues and inclinations run against this riding going back to the Liberals. Their candidate must charge his way through some many layers of barbed wire issues...gun registry, cronyism, abscam. The Liberal candidate will at least, as a non-incumbant, declare that he and his friends didn't profit from the abscam...but that will be thin gruel indeed for an election bid.
02/04/04 Derek Carmichael
Email: [hidden]
While the Liberals may have been involved in all these cost overrun programs, the sponsorship scandel actually helped RNP with a number of events in the rural areas of the riding. One of the largest events in RNP is the Renfrew Fair it supposedly received funding. While there is no doubting that mistakes were made, the overall program was a very helpful federal aid program and their are good examples in Cheryl's own backyard to prove that.
The other important aspect of RNP, and one which makes it a lot different from most Ontario ridings, is that there is no incumbant Liberal MP. Rob Jamieson is coming in clean on all these issues. This will be a riding that will chose an MP based on merit and the future, rather than on an incumbant Liberal MP who may or may not have been caught up in the sponsorship scandal. Rob Jamieson is a strong Liberal and has a clean slate to run on - the same can't be said for Ms. Gallant who has embarassed the riding time and time again.
It should also be noted that Rob is very close to Paul Martin and has supported the PM for years. He was even asked to serve on s special task force on education. The Martin's also have a very close relationship to RNP - in fact, Paul Martin has family living right in Pembroke. Given Martin's obvious liking of Jamieson, his close ties with RNP, and the fact that this has always been a Liberal stronghold - Martin will likely be pushing hard for this to be back in the Liberal win column given the need for Martin to win all the ridings he should be able to win - and RNP is a riding he should be able to pick back up.
Chalk this one up to the Liberals and may the Liberal tradition continue!
01/04/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
For the record, I believe Derek Nighbor's "strong showing" consisted of being the only Liberal candidate in the last provincial election to not hold on to a Liberal seat.
30/03/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I am inclined to predict that Gallant will be re-elected handily. Though not from the riding, I'm not immediately impressed that being criticized by Liberal Cabinet Ministers is a kiss of death...Also, the gun registry should be an important issue here...the fiasco of the cost overruns have yet to be a federal election issue and I think people who don't even own guns could be convinced to horse-whip the Liberals on this or several other money-wasting scandals...
28/03/04 J Horneck
Email: [hidden]
Call this a failed alliance experiment Cheryl Gallant is a brutal MP. I think Rob Jamieson has a strong chance at this. RNP seems to like younger candidates as Derek Nighbor the Provincial candidate demonstrated with a strong showing. With Gallant's performance driving down her own numbers this can be a Liberal win.
28/03/04 Colin
Email: [hidden]
Gallant swore in the House of Commons, told off the Minister of Foreign Affairs, was severely reprimanded by the current Defense Minister for telling outright lies about defense policy, she is constantly suggesting that the PMO and the former MP are out to get her in some massive Canadian government conspiracy, she was a strong supporter of Stockwell Day until his untimely removal, she went from being Deputy House Leader of the Opposition to the critic for science and research (or something like that) in a party that wants cut back on the riding's beloved AECL Laboratories.... o ya... she's a shoe in for sure!!!
20/03/04 B W
Email: [hidden]
I think Rob Jamieson will have this wrapped up for a number of reasons.
The first reason is that Gallant didn't win the last election, Hec Clouthier lost it. When you talk with family, friends, and even strangers in R-N-P (for those posting who actually live here), you see that there are a lot of people who have said straight out that they will be voting Liberal once again because Hec isn't the candidate. We must remember that in the last election Hec lost his cool on a televised debate and that lost a lot of votes in itself.
The second issue is that gun control has passed by as a major issue. Most people, while still unhappy, are not angry like they were 4 years ago when it had just come out. Even I don't care much for the debate anymore because I realize that it is not going away and the debate is not nearly as important as others.
The third issue is Gallant herself. She has been an embarassment to this riding. She has swore in the house of commons, she has been reprimanded in the media by the defense minister after she made totally false statements, and it almost seems like she forgets to think before she talks. She has NOT been a good MP.
The Conservatives have now shown it has been an alliance take over by electing Harper as its leader, it has no policy going into a spring electionb, and the party has said flat out - it came together to beat the Liberals. With all do respect, I want a party toi governn, not one that comes together for mere political and personal gain.
17/03/04 R.N
Email: [hidden]
Gallant may be going back to Ottawa after the next election but it will only be to watch debates from the public gallery. Gallant has done nothing siginificant for R-N-P - she has barely been a voice for the riding. In stead of doing constructive engagements she merely jumps on the partisan bandwagon when an anti-government issue comes along. Where were her townhall meetings for farmers before mad cow? Why is she still dwelling over gun control when it hasn't even been in the news for months?
Gallant won the last election because even staunch Liberals refused to support Hector Clouthier. That was, with all honesty, what beat the Liberals in the last election - this easily explains why R-N-P went Alliance in the last election while the rest of the province went Liberal (I must say there would seem to be some extraordinay event to explain that blip in the provincial trend). Now, the Liberals in RNP did exactly what Hector wanted... they gave him HEC! and instead voted Rob Jamieson as their candidate. Rob seems like a nice younger Liberal, has strong ties to Prime Minister Martin and the Liberal Party and, while it will no doubt be a fight, beat Gallant.
Clear promises and ideas beat conspiracy theories any day!
This riding will return to the Liberal column now that Hector's gone.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: radams2@uwo.ca
Any Conservative incumbant in Ontario should be considered a lock. This riding had the highest Alliance % in 2000 and was the ONLY riding in the entire province to switch from Liberal to Tory in the recent provincial election.
17/03/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
Probably one of the safest conservative bets in Ontario. Not only did it go Alliance last time, but it was the only riding in Ontario that was actually a PC pick-up in the provincial election (John Yakabuski defeated Lib Derek Nighbor after Sean Conway's resignation), despite the disasterous results for Eves' government in that election everywhere else in the province. RNP has become a real conservative heartland in the past decade. The united party makes it easier to make the call, but probably isn't even be necessary for the CP to keep the riding.
16/03/04 RWA
This riding went Alliance in 2000, and was the only riding in the entire province to dump a Liberal for a Tory in the recent provincial election. Cheryl Gallant will be going back to Ottawa.

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