Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

Current Prediction:

Riding Profile:
Candidates:

Liberal Party:
	Hec Clouthier
Canadian Alliance:
	Cheryl Gallant
Progressive Conservative Party:
	Bob Amaron
New Democratic Party:
	Ole Hendrickson
Natural Law Party:
	Andre Giordano
Independent:
	Thane Heins
Marijuana Party:
	Stanley Sambey

Incumbent:

Hec Clouthier

Previous Result:

	40.25%
	25.41%
	26.81%
	6.67%

Surrounding Ridings
Nipissing
Parry Sound-Muskoka
Haliburton-Victoria-Brock
Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox-Addington
Lanark-Carleton

Misc:

Population: 93 066

Avg Household Income 40 718

Submitted Information Submit Information here

	19/10/00	Garth	Email:
6500 votes more than his closest oponent in 1997, lots of goodies from Paul Martin, has the same birthday as Trudeau - Hec will be alright.
	30/10/00	M M	Email:
The incumbent won for the first time with 37% of the ballots cast in '97. This time the PC vote has collasped and the Alliance has nominated a very strong candidate in Cheryl Gallant. Incumbent MP ran as an independant in '93 election on an anti-gun control platform; has angered area hunters on refusal to discuss C-68, the gun control legislation as a government MP. Rising unemployment in Riding has voters asking what economic boom? This will be a break-through riding for Aliance in Ontario.
	31/10/00	Christopher J. Currie	Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Hec's relatively low numbers last time probably reflect dissatisfaction with his candidacy among some stalwart Liberals in the area (frankly, I suspect that Len Hopkins might have voted Tory out of spite). Cloutier has somehow managed to get in Chretien's good graces, though, and I suspect that most Grit loyalists are resigned to his presence by now. Unfortunately, Hec looks like he's there for the long haul.
	03/11/00	A.S.	Email:adma@interlog.com
The midget with a hat's triggered an interesting federal comedown for the Libs, although they still rule here provincially under Sean Conway. The upper Ottawa Valley had been fundamentally perma-Grit, w/Len Hopkins even holding on, albeit only by a recount, in the '84 Mulroney blowout. But thanks to Cloutier, who tried and failed to wrest the nomination from Hopkins, this was the only place where '93's winning Grit mandate significantly fell from '88. Then came '97, and not only the contentious Cloutier nomination but gun control, et al sunk the Grit % to unprecedented levels, below even Hopkins' near-loss in 1984. And it may just be the thing to allow RNP to finally cast off its Liberal allegiances this time, most especially w/CA nominating early and running aggressively. As a bit of a "frontier" sort of riding, with a strong FCP/CHP + CoR element as well as Liberal-yet-conservative Polish/Irish Catholic communities, it sets up the tableau for a big, big symbolic blow to the Grits. Maybe. But don't count out this short short man by a long shot.

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