Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Davenport


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 22:10:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Cash, Andrew

Figueroa, Miguel

Luisi, Simon

Rodrigues, Theresa

Scott, Wayne

Silva, Mario

Incumbent:
Mario Silva

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • davenport (138/140 Polls)
  • trinity-spadina (17/202 Polls)
  • york-south-weston (5/165 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 DavenportLib
    70.26.90.239
    Davenport is predominantly Liberal, North of Dupont. There is very few NDP pockets of support in the Northern parts of the riding. However these NDP poll pockets include: Oakwood/Winona area, Rosethorn, Blackthorn/Silverthorn. There are some Liberal poll pockets in the South of Dupont/West of Dufferin, to Perth, south of Bloor. The NDP support in this riding is very concentrated in areas, south of Dupont/East of Duffern. These include Havelock/Rusholme, Dovercourt/Delaware and Concord. In fact, in the most Southern regions of Davenport (South of Dundas) it is usually split between the Portuguese Rua Acores, which mostly votes Liberals and the NDP voters of the Old Heritage gentrified houses East of Gladstone too Dovercourt.Liberals dominates Eglinton south to Rogers Rd. Harvie Ave, Earlscourt and St Clair Ave W. Caledonia Rd. Furthermore, in terms of signs, there are many people that just allows the other candidate to put the sign on their lawn, but doesn't go vote for that candidate. If Cash wins, he will have to have a very good lucky day. Indeed, Mario should get just enough support this time to continue as MP for Davenport. The margin will be less this time but not enough to unseat Silva. The decades (nearly 50 yrs) of Liberal dominance in Davenport should continue. The weather if it rains, this is ususally bad for the incumbent. Many of the Northern parts of the riding have addresses and own the house they live in, that goes vote. The southern parts have a high number of people living in apartments or renting. This is another factor in an election. Many apartments and for rents, hardly answer the doors, during election time, as its ususally the 1st floor. There are approximately the same number of polls in the North of Dupont as to the South, so this should be interesting as which region has a higher voter turnout rate, as this could be one of the most crutial factors in significantly determining the fate of Davenport. It still should remain Liberal at the end of the day.
    11 05 01 Clarence
    174.118.230.117
    The Star stated today that the local NDP machine thinks this one is safe. They are more worried about Nash in Parkdale-High Park.
    11 04 30 MF
    74.15.65.209
    I'm changing my prediction to NDP. With the NDP polling above 25% in Ontario and the Liberals down from '08, it will be difficult for Mario Silva to withstand the trend. Andrew Cash is very likely to be reuniting with Charlie Angus in Parliament.
    11 04 30 Mike
    69.158.17.241
    MJA sorry to rain on your parade but the Toronto Star is definitely not ‘the most read paper in this riding.’ The Sol Portugues is. The fact that you dont know that is exactly why Mario Silva has nothing to worry about.
    11 04 30 MJA
    76.74.193.141
    The NDP continues to rise in the polls in Ontario. Andrew Cash is an excellent candidate. Mario Silva is a mediocre incumbent. And as of midnight tonight, the Toronto Star--the most widely-read newspaper in the riding--has explicitly endorsed the NDP, having gone Liberal at every election since at least 1962.
    Mario Silva is, at the very least, in serious jeopardy. More likely, this seat is already lost.
    11 04 29 rsg
    64.180.40.142
    Tough call here but i think it will be a fight to the finish but Mario Silva willl prevail, as the previous poster said their are a lot of Portuguese and Spanish residents that are loyal to Mario. When he vacants the riding i think the NDP will have a real shot at re-taking it.
    11 04 29 All Over the Map
    76.69.146.188
    Latest Ontario poll (Ipsos Reid) has the Liberals at 21% and the NDP at 34%. I may be getting last minute jitters but that's enough to get me to change my prediction...especially having spoken to my Davenport-resident brother, and his roommates, all of whom voted Liberal last time and most of whom are voting Dipper now...
    11 04 29 smash65
    206.223.177.195
    Looking at the old results, the Liberals took Davenport by 5,000+ votes. But all it would take is some siphoning off of 2,000 to 3,000 votes from the Liberals to the NDP plus some from the Cons to nudge Cash ahead of Mario. I think it will be Cash by a nose having talked to a lot of vote switchers in the neighbourhood lately.
    11 04 29 DL
    38.99.136.242
    This one is going NDP for sure. I'm not sure what another poster is talking about when he says the Liberals will win thanks for the Portuguese and Latin American vote. Its true that the Liberals will still get some votes from elderly Portuguese people who think Trudeau is still PM. But Latin Americans in Toronto tend to be quite leftwing since they are often refugees or children of refugees from fascist dictatorships (ie: Pinochet) and almost every country in South America has swung to the left and elected social democratic parties that are affiliated with the NDP. Jack Layton is the ‘Lula of Canada’ they will vote NDP en masse!
    11 04 29 dkay
    24.57.166.208
    looks like silva will have all the time in the world to study.. i have friends in the riding and every year when we discuss an election they are proudly silva.. not really liberals, but for silva.. was shocked to hear they will not be going that way again... if loyal silva voters like them can swing to cash then i see lots of problems for the liberals here.. ndp with momentum in ontario is magnified in ridings like this ndp steal by 3-4 percent
    11 04 29 jeff316
    69.165.140.216
    Well, I have to say that Cash has exceeded everyone's wildest expectations. He's really put it Silva - he is everywhere, his signs are everywhere, his campaign is everywhere - I wouldn't be surprised if this has been Silva's most worrying campaign. That being said, the Liberals will hold on to Davenport. The 'we need a fulltime MP' angle hasn't really resonated (it's a little mean to get after someone for pursuing a ph.d in their spare time, particularly from Cash who will likely release some sort of music even if elected) and there are too many Portuguese and Latin Americans in the riding for the NDP to take it. People have said it - Tony Ruprecht wins this riding, provincially. If he doesn't lose, Silva sure won't.
    11 04 28 All Over the Map
    76.69.146.188
    Yes, the sign war is even, but it is just that - even. The fact of the matter is that while the Liberals are certainly down in Ontario from the last election, and the NDP are up, it still wouldn't fall in the margin here. When you factor into Silva's genius at campaigning, and the tendency of the NDP to underperform in Toronto on election day, I still think Silva has the upper hand here. They will likely pick up Parkdale-High Park, and may very well pick up Beaches-East York, but five seats in Toronto seems a stretch.
    11 04 27 Initial?
    128.100.88.22
    I commute through this riding and the sign war (in the north end, anyhow) seems pretty even. Probably TCTC, but I'm inclined to think NDP with the current momentum (and I'd expect Liberal voters to have been first to put out the signs, more likely to own property they can put signs on, etc.)
    11 04 27 R.O.
    99.246.102.2
    This riding was mentioned in Toronto star article i saw on my travels on internet , called davenport could flip orange after 49 years, it reports ndp are way ahead in terms of signs . but i've also read several years ago that ndp supporters in toronto some reason more likely to put up signs . ndp are also going after Mario Silva for his attendance record . but either way i think its highly possible there be ndp pick ups in toronto at expense of liberals . i'd say this seat leaning ndp now that liberals are below dions level of support in 08 election in the province and Andrew Cash very possibly headed to Ottawa .
    11 04 27 Bill Stewart
    142.214.175.8
    I'd say the Orange Crush has arrived in Ontario. Anyone see the various polls in the last week or so, but especially this week???
    Nash and Cash will be carried over the top with this insurgent wave of orange.
    11 04 27 PY
    99.247.66.152
    Having watched the Downsview-based Liberal rally (featuring former PM Jean Chretien), it's proof positive that the party isn't going away just yet, nor is it over. I can't say the same for the Habs, but I digress...
    Mario Silva's still a hot commodity down here and the presence on city council of his former assistant, Ana Bailao, reinforces that very point.
    I also had a chance to catch up with the goth couple whom I previously mentioned two years ago (and believe me, they are far from being anomalies); originally from Montreal, they quickly fell in love with his predecessor, Charles Caccia, upon moving to the riding a dozen years ago. Fast forward to now, and they see no reason to switch to Cash...neither do they see the numbers adding up for him.
    11 04 27 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    Earlier I said that this seat was the number 1 target for the NDP in Ontario as far as seats they dont currently own. That may be a bit of a stretch, since seats like Parkdale-High-Park and Beaches-East York may be a higher priority, but I can see the results here being much closer than any of the previous three elections.
    11 04 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    65.92.25.58
    The NDP isn't surging in Ontario. They're holding their own though and Liberal support is sinking. Could be close but will probably stay Liberal.
    11 04 26 Cory Martin
    174.94.19.213
    How is this TCTC? It has been solid Liberal for decades and will still be Liberal after the election.
    11 04 26 Jon
    216.218.29.251
    Guys, this NDP surge is not nationwide. They are still below 20% in Ontario, it is solely in Quebec that they are surging. And even the average voter knows this as most headlines and news feeds read that they are surging in QUEBEC. Why everyone on here has started applying that surge to ridings in Toronto is beyond me. This one stays Liberal. Mario Silva has the respect and trust of the Davenport riding.
    11 04 25 DL
    174.114.127.23
    This was looking to be a close race all along and now with the massive NDP surge and Liberal collapse - its a no-brainer people as people in Davenport trade in their Silva for Cash!! Silva is just about the worst most ineffective MP in Ottawa and his campaign has been very lackadaisical. Andrew Cash and Charlie Angus will have a reunion of their band in Parliament!
    11 04 25 MJA
    76.74.193.141
    I live in the southern part of the riding, and it's looking better and better for Andrew Cash down here: he's had some excellent exposure in the Star and the alt-weeklies, Jack and Olivia have swung through, and he's had several packed events and rallies, with more to come in the final week. The local New Democrats are clearly hungry for a win, and moreso than ever before, I think they might pull it off.
    But the Portuguese vote remains extremely important here, and with its concentrations in the Northern half of the riding, I can't make a hard prediction either way. I'd say there's a 60% chance Silva hangs on--but if it's a good night for the NDP, this is one of the seats that'll flip.
    11 04 26 Snozzington
    69.158.18.11
    I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Andrew Cash gets it. The media seemed so concerned about the possible Conservative ins in Toronto that this one seems to have been flying under the radar a bit. There's the sign wars, yes, and also at a recent debate, there was a strong pro-Cash (but not necessarily partisan) energy in the crowd. I think a combination of the Orange Wave in Quebec and the relative absence of Mario Silva has really propelled Cash into prominence. I had originally thought it would only be the arty South-of-Bloor contingent that would be going NDP, but talking to somebody in the Tamil community further north in the riding, the ‘Where's Mario?’ sentiment is shared in other parts of Davenport as well.
    11 04 20 LF
    74.216.238.130
    Although many people note the surge of the NDP in the polls, that hasn't really been reflected in the regional polling for Ontario. The Liberals are still strong in Ontario, and the NDP hasn't made the same inroads they have in QC for instance.
    Although the demographic shift will continue to favour the NDP, and shrink the Liberal hold on this riding, it should still land in the hands of Mario Silva in 2011.
    11 04 17 JTman
    99.234.12.60
    Agree with liberal predictions here. However I could see this going ndp in the near future with more yuppies moving into the parts south of dupont and out numbering the liberal parts to the north. But for now, Silva has no worries.
    11 04 17 jeff316
    69.165.134.211
    re: mikeb - I don't disagree that Silva will carry but I live north of Dupont and Cash's signs outnumber something like Silva 3:1, and higher when you get into some of the residential neighbourhoods, particularly in the north-east portion of the riding.
    11 04 16 mikeb
    174.118.44.242
    This riding is still red especially the further north one goes. There may be more younger voters moving into the riding, but there's not that many yet. The NDP still does not win north of Dupont. It now shows in the sign war. I think they only won a couple polls last federal election in Ward 17. A dud like Ruprecht keeps winning, how can Silva not? Cash would have to do very well in Ward 18 to overcome the problem he has north of Dupont. He's a good quality candidate so maybe he'll join Perks and move to another ward or another level of government. In any case my pick is for Mario Silva to return to Ottawa.
    11 04 15 MF
    70.48.66.229
    Andrew Cash seems to be running a strong campaign but he's probably too much of a ‘NOW hipster’ for working class Davenport. Cash would be the beneficiary of a drop in the Green vote here, but he likely wouldn't do as well as among Portuguese voters than Peter Ferreira did. Mario Silva is pretty well entrenched here and I see him hanging on by a fairly comfortable margin.
    11 04 14 jeff316
    69.165.134.211
    To Andrew Cash's credit, Silva is being clobbered sign-wise. Davenport is awash in orange like never before. That being said, even if Cash weren't suited mainly to the Queen St/Liberty Village vote, Silva will pull through. All those orange signs will show up to vote, but that'll be pretty much the extent of the NDP vote. This is a Liberal riding through-and-through. I mean, heck, they vote Tony Ruprecht in, provincially.
    11 04 13 Sam B
    192.82.150.201
    Although still one of the the most diverse ridings in Canada, there have been some shift to a younger population that would favour the NDP. The incumbent Liberal's complete invisibility from the national and local stages is also a huge factor.
    11 04 06 Cory Martin
    70.27.57.60
    My old riding. Mario will have no problem holding on to the riding. He is well liked in Davenport. As much as this is a target for the NDP this is the safest Liberal seat for Mario
    11 04 03
    99.241.8.136
    I think this one is TCTC at this point. Andrew Cash has been canvassing like a mad man, and people seem to like him. Charlie Angus and Jack Layton have been helping him out a lot too, and this is one of NDPs biggest targets to win. I still think whoever wins will win by about 1,000 votes or less, but I'm not ready to state whether that will be Silva or Cash.
    11 04 02
    174.91.142.112
    This Riding will be a cake walk for Mario Silva there won't be a Portuguese Vote split this time around I think he'll win by a larger margin this time .
    11 03 31 MH
    174.89.123.82
    This seat has been Liberal since 1962, when Walter Gordon took it from John Diefenbaker's Progressive Conservatives. Over the years the Tories have faded as in much of Toronto. Even under Brian Mulroney the PCs were unable to reassert themselves, and more recently the Conservatives have done no better. In 2008 they took a pathetic 11% of the popular vote, barely ahead of the Greens, the one party to significantly increase its share of the vote that year. The NDP has been in second place since the mid-1970s, and today its candidate, Andrew Cash, offers the only half-way plausible challenge to Mario Silva's dominance. But the Liberal vote will have to collapse for Cash to be successful, so at the moment this looks like a safe Liberal hold.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Over the past three elections, the results have been fairly consistent in support. The Liberals will win but not by the massive margins elsewhere, the NDP will get a strong second and probably above 30%, but still more than 10 points behind, while the Tories will be lucky if they can get their deposit back.
    11 03 27 jeff316
    206.248.177.14
    Andrew Cash's signs are all over the riding (already!) - even in tony areas in the west Annex and in Regal Heights that you would expect would be Liberal strongholds. He's a top-tier NDP candidate - hands down one of their brighter new stars this election. That being said, Cash is absolutely the wrong type of candidate for this riding. Even if he were, the NDP will not win here. Davenport's two main demographic groups are 1) solidly middle-class immigrant homeowners -- as Liberal a voter as you get in urban Ontario, and b) incoming young professionals of the socially-liberal but fiscally-conservative bent who don't make enough money to live further south in the Annex (Trinity Spadina), further north/east in Hillcrest/Humewood/Cedarvale (St. Paul's) or further west in Roncy or High Park. These guys grew up under Harris, while the NDP's underlying class-war rhetoric doesn't resonate with them, so voting PC or NDP for them has never been in the cards. The NDP will continue to target Davenport, election after election, but they'll never win. It is just not there, demographically.
    10 02 05 binriso
    156.34.218.184
    I would say this is target number 1 for the NDP as far as seats they don’t currently own. Almost certainly Liberal though, but the NDP certainly have a decent chance.
    09 10 22 PY
    76.66.123.92
    I stand corrected; indeed, it was Peter Ferreira who ran last time out, but notwithstanding Dion's performance as Liberal leader, Perks (the former environmental columnist for Eye Weekly, if I'm not mistaken) was probably the NDP's best chance at winning the seat and those who stayed at home may need to reconsider the idea this time. I don't know about you, DL, but I know just as many people who are still raring to go to the polls from all sides of the political spectrum.
    I believe it was one of Andrew Cash's own friends, Charlie Angus, who when asked a little while ago on either CPAC or CTV (I can't remember which now) about his party's agreement with the Tories, replied with much discomfort...I mean, I could see it in his face that he wasn't pleased to field the question and have to swallow such a bitter pill. Now, if that's not being muzzled with regards to that very issue (I doubt he's the only one and wouldn't be surprised if other caucus members have been directed to spin the NDP's pact with the CPC as much as possible, if asked about it), I don't know what is, as it seems that there's not much room for one to be frank in the NDP. I otherwise think it'll be a while yet before the NDP can really contend here, though...this is neither the time nor the place for them.
    09 10 14 MF
    74.15.64.169
    I agree with the words of caution here from A.S. and PY. There is a small part of Davenport that has a contingent of NOW-reading frequenters of the Drake and Gladstone. But this is still a very working class Portuguese riding with educational attainment and income levels well below average. Andrew Cash sounds like a good candidate that can rally the urban activist base and can perhaps create a buzz that spreads to other inner-city ridings, but he's hardly a household name and the riding is filled with Portuguese immigrants who wouldn't recognize him from a six foot hole in the ground.
    09 10 12 DL
    99.232.168.79
    There are so many errors in ?PY? comment below that I don't even know where to begin. First of all Gord Perks was NOT the NDP candidate in the last election - that was Peter Ferreira who managed to cut the Liberal margin to about 4,000 votes. Perks ran in 2006 and I don't know that anyone at the time considered him a ?star? candidate. He may be well-known now after three years on city council, but in 2006 he was a little known environmental activist. I'm not saying that Andrew Cash is going to win since obviously there is a gap to close - mind you at the rate at which Liberal support is evaporating - who knows. I'd also like to know more about who exactly in the NDP is being ?muzzled?. That's the first I've heard of that. I'll bet the Liberals wish they had muzzles that were as effective as the the ones the NDP supposedly has - it might mean an end to this parade of Liberals going public with their hatred of Ignatieff! As far as I can tell there is almost unanimous approval of the NDP preventing a snap election and Liberals probably are happiest of all since the NDP saved them from running off a cliff!
    09 10 08 PY
    70.52.180.139
    Well, hold your horses...Davenport hasn't gentrified to the extent that the NDP can take the seat easily. The predictions in the last election in favour of Gord Perks, himself a star candidate for the NDP, all proved to be wrong and I expect much the same for Cash. Don't forget the more established families and constituents who still live in the riding, or that there are also Liberal voters amongst the younger ones (which include a goth couple with whom I'm well acquainted).
    As much as the Liberals need to worry about whether Ignatieff can cut it as leader, the same should be said for the NDP with Jack Layton, who's now gotten into the act of *gasp* muzzling his caucus, especially with regards to the continued support of the Conservatives, which will eventually have to end at some point, lest Layton wants to anger the grassroots and divide his caucus. I'm not sure if Andrew Cash has what it takes to weather that kind of storm...on the other hand, Mario Silva's been through that before and then some.
    I'm not surprised that Gord Downie would, as a fellow musician himself, endorse Andrew Cash...however, I doubt it'll really be as significant as some may believe. In fact, it could rile, disappoint or confuse some (?Downie, a Dipper??), but mostly it'll be met with the kind of indifference that only the local hipsters can provide (not that I pretend to know that much about them).
    In the end, I just don't see the voters of Davenport casting their ballots as if to say that they'd be willing to give Andrew Cash everything to be their MP.
    09 10 05 Supergenius
    209.226.48.226
    Not ready to make a call here yet, but I have to say; Andrew Cash for the NDP? very interesting. Am not sure if Cash's star power is quite enough to take the day on his own, but would suggest a few factors could make this a real race.
    First, how far will the Libs fall. They seem to be as we speak arriving at Dionesque levels but is that the bottom or is there further to fall? The liberal engine is sputtering, but I am sensing that they are almost entering a spiral of negative press and the perception that the wheels are falling off. If they cant right the course, this riding in my opinion quickly comes into play in a large way for the NDP. If the narrative of the election is the liberals faltering, and the Tories surging, the NDP will focus in a big way on lib holds with strongish second place finishes by them. In Toronto it is formost Beaches, and secondly, Davenport.
    The other factor is Cash himself. He is a very good friend of popular NDP MP Charlie Angus. I am guessing that Charlie is pushing in a major way for the NDP to throw a huge chunk of resources towards this campaign assuming that Cash gets the nod.
    Lastly, Gord Downie of the Tragically Hip is one of a number of endorsers to the Cash nomination campaign. The section of Toronto is youngish and student friendly enough for that to mean something if Downie et al get involved.
    Interesting....
    09 10 05 DL
    38.99.136.242
    FYI, the NDP is nominating well-known musician/journalist Andrew Cash here. He used to play in a band with Charlie Angus, so if he were to win it might be the first time that two members of the same musical group served together in Parliament!
    Its hard to see the Liberals losing here, though if things continue to slide for Ignatieff and given how low profile the Liberal member is here and given demographic changes that Cash can capitalize on - anything is possible.
    09 09 03 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    While federally, the NDP took brilliant advantage of the Charles Caccia ouster in 2004, their share has actually fallen in the two elections since (not fatally, mind you--though here, too, was that weird '08 trend of the NDP losing significant ground in formerly congenial Dufferin-Grove-ian turf). And while the Greens (benefitting, too, from local Frank De Jong's provincial leadership) had their highest-profile 2008 Toronto candidate in bike messenger activist Wayne Scott (and just the thing to steal the NDP urban-activist base), it's otherwise too poor/ethnic a seat to be Green-winnable--though there'd certainly be an inadvertent ‘Bryantgate’ dynamic if Wayne Scott ran again. Reluctantly, I'll give this to the Liberals once again; but it all depends on which (and how effective a) strategy the NDP has up its sleeve...
    09 09 01 MF
    70.52.182.217
    Davenport has been a Liberal stronghold forever. Mario Silva has withstood three serious challenges from the NDP and has won with comfortable margins. While the NDP did come very close in the last provincial election, this was largely due to the very negative press Tony Ruprecht was receiving for collecting an MPP salary and spending most of his time in Cuba. Silva may have his detractors but that means little to the average voter in Davenport.
    09 08 24 Observer
    89.180.69.237
    It is too early to say the Grits will hold their vote in Davenport. NDP has improved its share provincially and federally in the last elections. A strong election campaign here by the NDP and a strong presence of Jack Layton can move this constituency.
    09 08 23 MJA
    76.74.206.85
    The fate of this riding depends very much on what's happening around the election call. If the NDP are in a position to win additional seats, this is one of the most likely gains. (Perhaps the most likely gain for the party in Toronto, now that Gerrard Kennedy is running Parkdale--High Park.) If they nominate a strong candidate and fight a solid campaign, they only have a 2500-vote deficit to take the seat, and that's well within reach.
    However, current polls show the Liberals up and the NDP down, which seems to suggest Mario Silva has another relatively easy run. This being said, keep an eye on the Greens, especially if they can get the same attention and momentum as they got last year. They almost beat the Conservatives last time, winning over 10% of the vote and drawing equally from the Liberals and NDP. If they can get another strong candidate to run (and the Davenport greens have a history of landing surprisingly good candidates both federally and provincially), they might hit a breakthrough. It's very unlikely, but I'd still peg it as more likely than Elizabeth May winning in Central Nova, so take that as you wish.



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