Update/Mise à jour:
11:21 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:21 PM 05/05/2005
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Davenport
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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Communist
Miguel Figueroa
Canadian Action
Wendy Forrest
Green/Vert
Mark O'Brien
NDP/NPD
Gord Perks
Conservative/conservateur
Theresa Rodrigues
Libearl/libéral
Mario Silva
Marxist-Leninist
Sarah Thompson

Incumbent/Député:
Mario Silva

2004 Result/Résultats:
Mario Silva
16773
Rui Pires
11292
Theresa Rodrigues
3077
Mark O'Brien
1384
Elmer Gale
251
Johan Boyden
137
John Riddell
97
Sarah Thompson
79

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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18 01 06 full name
What amazes me in the number of Conservative signs... The CPC won't win, but it seems like they are stealing support from the Liberals. Possibly this is the older, socially conservative Portugese crowd reacting to the gay marriage issue. That bodes well for the NDP... unless its supporters switch to the Liberals in hopes of blocking a Harper government.
17 01 06 Big Dog
I am now willing to go out on a limb and say I think the NDP can take this one. Some of my Portuguese neighbours that previously had Silva signs up have taken them down and replaced them with Rodriques. If Silva's core Portuguese vote is starting to shift away from him to the Conservatives, he has no hope to beat a surging NDP in Davenport.
16 01 06 gm
I live in this riding between Bloor and Dupont and while there is a liberal base here, I believe the last 3 years have seen a swing in the demographics of this riding (which partially explains RUi Pires strong showing during the last election). My block alone in the last 3 years has seen 8 portuguese/italian/polish homeowners sell their homes to 8 young couples (my wife and I amoung them). The reason for this is simple - this area is one of the few remaining in Toronto that is affordable to buy a house for those who want to live in downtown area without having to resort to buying a condo. These new homeowners are generally well educated and lean left.
12 01 06 Chico
I believe that this riding can now be called "too close to call" for several reasons:
a) the liberals think davenport is already won. it seems the silva campaign has lost resources to other ridings, because i haven't gotten any lit or knocks on the door.
b) the portuguese vote is not necessarily liberal. The tories are on the receiving end of some of that & a large part is also going NDP. I am Portuguese & what i hear is that many are tired of the liberals & think it is time for change. The younger (my) generation isn't necessarily Liberal. Some are tory, some are NDP or green. Silva is considered the "establishment" & the status quo (that means blah blah blah, who cares what he says, etc.)
c) in my part of the riding, the only signs i see are NDP so far
d) the portuguese comunity press & the silva campaign are playing up the "vote for one of ours" card but that doesn't seem to matter with many of portuguese. except for political junkies & nationalists, most don't care about that. some non-portuguese think that silva only helps the portuguese people here. there is even an 'anti-portuguese vote' in there but mostly because during the last world & euro cups portuguese soccer fans kept everyone awake every night for a week
e) voter turn-out will decline in Davenport, many liberals who can't stomach voting for anyone other then the libs, will stay home. On my street, the only neighbours that plan to vote are those voting NDP or PC.
f) Gord Perks is more high profile than Rui Pires. He is also a father & husband, which means he likely isn't gay (in the mind of the homophobic, at least). Unfortunately, that is still an issue & by now Silva's sexuality has had time to trickle down & become common knowledge amongst the portuguese (it dodn't get round until after the last election was over). In my family, that was enough to get everyone arguing & none of them are going to vote liberal now just becaise of that
g) The NDP candidate had solid green credibility, fewer voters will vote Green than before.
h) my two italian neighbours, usually liberal voters, are still pissed because of the "Caccia manoeuver"
i) in the two articles about Davenport that i've read (in the Toronto Star & NOW magazine), Silva comes across as arrogant, saying that Perks is an unknown & that he is a one-issue candidate (he than says that he is an 'imigration' guy (!): that's only one isue too! the liberals should know by now that percieved arrogance hasn't played well in this election.
j) unlike in Trinity-Spadina, strategic voting is not so much a factor. Most voters here aren't really that worried about the conservatives. Some people i spoke with mention the 'broken promises' and 'they had their chance' a lot, again, the desire for change seems much bigger now than in 2004.
I'd say this is a toss-up between the NDP & the liberals. If the liberals keep airing those attack ads, the NDP might just take it, but by less than 200 votes
01 01 06 MH
Un peu d'histoire: Davenport has been Liberal since 1962, when Walter Gordon took it. In 1968 he made way for Charles Caccia, who held the riding through ten (!) consecutive general elections. Even the Mulroneyite tide of 1984 did not come close to loosening his grip. Resentment over his forced departure from politics explains the surprisingly strong NDP vote in 2004, but that will probably not carry forward into 2006. Unless some total disaster overtakes the Grits during the next three weeks, Davenport will stick with Mario Silva. It may stick with him in any case: this is one of the safest Liberal seats outside English-speaking Montreal and the West Island. The NDippers have an outside chance; the Conservatives are about as viable here as Liberals in Medicine Hat.
19 12 05 ponytail
If the NDP was determined to win this riding, I believe they could. However, Layton's numbers in Southern Ontario are tanking. That means resources that might end up here to divert votes are going to be spent holding seats in Windsor, picking up Beth Phinney's riding, and trying to maintain "what is expected" of the NDP; they can't afford to target Davenport when they might not hold the seats they've got, and this will result in the Silva victory everyone and their aunt is expecting.
15 12 05 Mike F.
Mario doesn't have the significant Caccia spectre hanging over him this time, and has the magic of incumbency behind him.
Most of all though, he now has a virtual strangle-hold on the Portuguese vote (as Rodrigues is a known quantity), now that Rui Pires is not running again. Make no mistake the Portuguese population in the middle and north of this riding is growing faster than the pockets of gentrification in the south. To not see this is an extremely myopic anglo-centric view of these neighbourhoods.
Perks is neither Italian, Portuguese or Spanish and doesn't have significant inroads of any kind to those communities. That's strike three in Davenport.
Mario will win by a good chunk more than before I'm guessing.
15 12 05 AR
Despite Silva's history in the riding he only won by 5,000 votes last time. The demographics of the riding are changing as the older Portuguese population are moving away or dying. The riding is becoming yuppified with the influx of younger, university educated artists and professionals, a pool of voters that is more promising for the NDP. Gord Perks comes from the Toronto Environmental Alliance which has a lot of experience with door to door canvassing so the volunteers he brings with him will give him an organizational boost Rui Pires didn't have. Also, now that Silva is out as being gay, this may hurt him amongst conservative Portuguese voters and drive some of them to the Tory candidate.
Look for a much closer race this time, particularly if the national NDP camapign gains steam in January and creates a "rising tide lifts all boats" effect for NDP candidates in general.
08 12 05 Grant. G.
A Liberal stronghold for over 40 years, there is no strong movement in the riding for most Liberal voters to even consider a switch to the NDP. It's just one of those really safe seats for the Grits.
03 12 05 A.S.
The old-school inner-city "poor immigrant" riding par excellence, long the solid Liberal bastion of Charles Caccia; but gentrification and the GTA's demographic evolution is rapidly blunting that age-old superlative, to the point where it may soon be seeming (at least, S of Dupont) paradoxically *more* WASPy than the Toronto norm, rather than less. No wonder that following Caccia's quasi-forced retirement, and fueled by Jack Layton's leadership, the NDP finally broke through and became competitive in '04--so competitive, it did better here than in the erstwhile stronghold of Beaches-East York! And now w/Gord Perks, they're making an even more aggressive pitch for the "Charles Caccia environmentalist" constituency--though it might work better if he had an Italian or Portugese surname. It isn't like Davenport's gone *that* far in the Dufferin Grove/Gladstone/Drake direction, y'know. True, Mario Silva has yet to shake off a certain "former municipal councillor" greenness, and he's so mild that one barely notices he's, incredibly enough (and with the qualified exception of ex-PC Scott Brison), the first uncloseted Liberal MP--though amidst all Gomeryesque turmoil, his relative innocuousness might be his electoral saving grace. Still, any seat where NDP took over 1/3 of the vote shouldn't be taken for granted.
31 10 05 MF
With Gord Perks as the NDP candidate in Davenport, I think it's time to call this as a Liberal hold. Whatever people think of Mario Silva personally won't effect the outcome that much. Perks will have trouble outside of the gentrfying areas around Trinity Bellwoods Park which have a lot of young, highly-educated, NDP voters. This group is not a large enough base for an NDP victory here. I just can't see Perks doing that well among the working class Portuguese and Italian voters who dominate the riding. Silva will win with a bigger margin.
Prediction: 58% LIB, 27% NDP, 9% CON, 4% GRN, 2% others
03 11 05 Owin Lambeck
Gord Perks got the NDP nomination the other day. He should be a higher profile candidate than Rui was last time. If the Conservatives can field a good candidate to siphon off some Liberal votes from the right, and if the Gomery anger kicks in half as much as it should, the NDP can squeak by here.
31 08 05 Nick Boragina
I can’t really see anyone other then the liberals winning this riding anytime soon. While it might not be the most liberal riding in the country in terms of votes, it certainly is one in terms of the heart and soul of the voters. Being a liberal here means something, it’s a social and cultural statement, and at the end of the day this large number of bedrock supporters will help them beat any NDP drive.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
Even though the NDP had a strong showing in this riding, with the Conservatives being virtually non-existent, Mario Silva should probably hold this albeit by a smaller margin than last time around. It will be more competitive but the NDP realistically will only pick-up some of the downtown ridings and this is just outside of where the NDP is strong.
04 05 05 ponytailguy
This one will be close. Mario Silva hasn't been seen a lot, and after he deprived Caccia of the nomination in 2004, the Liberal majority dropped by 10 000. Of course, Rui Pires was a fairly strong NDP candidate. The CPC won't be a factor in this riding (Teresa Rodrigues didn't even win back her deposit last time), but the NDP and Liberals will make this one interesting.
06 05 05 MF
It's hard to say what will happen here. Rui Pires did better than most expected last time around and he wasn't a "big-name" candidate" but rather a very community-oriented one in this solidly working class riding (yes, there's been some gentrification around Queen St. and in Dufferin Grove, plus the riding includes affluent Regal Heights, but yuppies are still a small minority here). It depends on how much the NDP vote last year was really a Charles Caccia vote, and whether Caccia Liberals are now solid NDP voters, and on how many more will migrate to the NDP due to the drop in Liberal support nationally.
03 05 05 Cory Martin
Easy win for Mario. I hope for the Conservatives sake they select a candidate who actually cares about running.



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