Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Tony Ianno
Canadian Alliance:
Lee Monaco
Progressive Conservative Party:
John E.Polko
New Democratic Party:
Michael Valpy
Communist Party:
Jesse Benjamin
Natural Law Party:
Ashley Deans
Green Party:
Matthew Hammond
Marijuana Party:
Paul Lewin
Mariist-Leninist Party:
Nick Lin

Tony Ianno

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:
Parkdale-High Park
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre-Rosedale

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Submitted Information
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02/10/00 K.J.C. Email:
It will be a close race between the Liberals and the NDP. The Alliance has no chance in winning this riding since the riding in nature is a left-wing riding.
The PC's may have a chance since in the past it has elected a Tory MP to Ottawa. The PCs have a history in this riding alot longer than the Alliance.
09/10/00 A.S. Email:
It's close, all right--too close. Give or take a Northern riding or two, if there's any Ontario chance the federal NDP wouldn't throw away, it's Trinity-Spadina, where Olivia Chow delivered one of only three non-Liberal 40%+ results in '97 (the others: Jim Jones and John Nunziata). It's the heartland of urban-sophisticate social democracy, and Tony Ianno's the eternally coveted Italo-Liberal machine target. And as goes the PCs, the only reason they have a longer history in this riding than the Alliance is that they've had a longer history, *period*--really, they've been in decline here since the Diefenbaker era and utterly irrelevant since the last vestiges of Crombie "Red Toryism" in the 80s. Reform/Alliance, of course, goes into this in a hypothetically even worse position--they had their poorest '97 Ontario result here--but T-S also had that year's worst *united right* result in Ontario. The reason: the electorate here was drastically, strategically polarized.
10/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:
I would put this riding in the NDP column. I have an uncle who lives in this riding and he says that people here are really yearning for someone not on the government benches to represent them, and the obvious choice is the NDP candidate, whoever they may be.
11/10/00 Email:
Too Close. Popular City Councillor Olivia Chow has an excellent chance if she's the NDP candidate. If the federal election is called for November, however, she'll have to sit it out since the municipal election is November 13th. Without Chow this will be a much harder battle for the NDP to win.
15/10/00 RSC Email:
Michael Valpy, writer for the Globe & Mail, has announced for the NDP nomination. Strong high profile candidate if Chow sits out.
16/10/00 AL Email:
Globe and Mail columnist Michael Valpy has just entered the contest for the NDP nomination in this riding and he'll likely get it. A high-profile candidate like Valpy increases the NDP's chances in this riding which is number one or two on the party's Ontario wish list.
16/10/00 Adam Daifallah Email:
Looks as though Globe and Mail minion and Deboray Coyne ex-hubby Michael Valpy will carry the NDP banner in the riding and not Olivia Chow. Look for him to barely beat Ionno in this tradionally NDP-friendly riding.
17/10/00 djn Email:
Trinity Spadina as well as a few other downtown ridings could have the vote influenced by the Adams Mine Debate. If the Liberals dont call an Environmental Assessment, the riding will likely go to the New Democrats. If an EA is called however, the environment vote wont line up so clearly behind the NDP and it could be too close to call.
17/10/00 Richard Email:
This one is too close to call. The NDP are traditionally at an advantage here but Tony has been there 7 years. Many lefties will grudgingly vote liberal as they see a two way race between the centre left grits and the super right wing alliance. I think that there may be enough of these to keep the liberal in his seat, but I wouldn't be shocked either way. Too close to call.
17/10/00 EP Email:
I think this will be one of NDP gain if Michael Valpy actually gets the nomination. He would be an outstanding candidate to fight the "minister wanna-be", "Martin's lapdog" Tony Ianno. Though rumour is Barry Weisleder, federal Co-Chair of the NDP Socialist Caucus, will seek the nomination with his ultra-leftwing troops. NDP's chance will evaporate if he gets the nomination. The Socialist Caucus, whether you agree with their stand or not, is a group that generate some good ideas but cannot do sh-- on a operation stand point (bicker too much). The NDP needs both a good candidate and good machine to carry this riding.
20/10/00 Frank Saptel Email:
With the NDP nomination meeting set for tonight and the very high media interest, either Jordan Berger or Michael Valpy are positioned to grab this riding back from the moribund liberal back-bencher who has held it since 1993. People are questioning why there should be an election this early as well as why lower income people weren't helped more. Most of the budget "help" went to the top wage earners. It's wrong and people will show their dusgust with the government on election day!
20/10/00 EP Email:
In response to Frank Saptel's post: Jordan Berger will snip NDP chance as well. As party executive Berger angered so many NDPer with his dirty politics. His candidatecy will cause some operational problem within the rank and files. The only NDP candidate that have any reasonable chance is Michael Valpy.
20/10/00 Paul Kasman Email:
In'97 the NDP lost the seat by only 4 percentage points (41% to 45%) against the Libs. No other opposition party has a chance of winning and even the slightest gain in allience support here could squeek the NDP in.
21/10/00 G.J. Email:
Michael Valpy was chosen as the Dipper nominee at last night's meeting, reportedly by a wide margin. Olivia Chow was on hand to give a ringing endorsement. The party faithful were, to all appearances, energized and confident. Valpy was extremely well-spoken and promises to Give Good Stump on the campaign trail, making this race one to watch.
21/10/00 JRFD Email:
To no one's surprise - Michael Valpy is the NDP candidate for Trinity-Spadina. Socialist caucus member Barry Weisleder never had a remote chance. The Socialist Caucus represents the lunatic fringe of the NDP and has no support from the rank and file members of the NDP. As for Jordan Berger - he represents the forward looking approach the NDP needs take to revitalize itself. Yes Jordan pisses off the socialist caucus types - but that is NOT a bad thing. The NDP chose Valpy because he will win this seat for the NDP in this election - but in the long run it is people like Jordan that will save the NDP.
21/10/00 Chris Chmelyk Email:
Anyody who thinks that the NDP will let Michael Valpy go down to defeat is deluding themselves. Olivia Chow nearly took this riding in 1997, another 1000 votes against ineffectual and voiceless Liberal Ianno, and the New Democrats will be sending a formidable MP to Ottawa. The coalescence of Harris supporters around a strong alliance challenge in Ontario, will likely help whoever carries their banner here, and will be a boon to the NDP.
23/10/00 AL Email:
The Liberals at Queen's Park are no fans of Ianno and where Grit staffers at the Main Leg could normally be expected to help their federal Liberal cousins in ridings which are a stone's throw from the Pink Palace such as Trinity Spadina, this time it's certain they will go elsewhere, or even lend a hand to the NDP.
23/10/00 Ian Urquhart Toronto Star
"there is some lingering bitterness harboured by the McGuintyites toward members of the federal Liberal caucus who campaigned to ``dump Dalton'' during last year's leadership review vote. High on this list is Tony Ianno, Liberal MP for Trinity-Spadina, who made no secret of his desire to get rid of McGuinty. Now McGuinty staffers are joking that they intend to campaign for the New Democrats against Ianno in Trinity-Spadina. Perhaps they are only half joking."
23/10/00 DL Email:
The NDP riding association is united behind its candidate. In the nomination meeting Valpy won on the first ballot with 156 votes, Jordan Berger came in second with 25 votes and Barry Weisleder came in third with 20 votes. David Berlin withdrew from the race in order to run for the NDP in Toronto Centre Rosedale where he now has the nomination.
23/10/00 DC Email:
In today's Globe & Mail article accompanying a poll of voting intentions in the Federal Election in Toronto, John Wright of Ipsos-Reid (formerly Angus Reid) predicted the only Toronto ridings that could be won by candidates other than Liberals were Trinity-Spadina and York-South Weston.
25/10/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
With Ipsos-Reid reporting NDP support at about one third of the Liberals in the Toronto/York area, anything but a Liberal victory is going to have to be regarded as a major upset.
26/10/00 Mr. Mischief Email:
Paul Kasman says that an Alliance gain in Spadina will slide the New Democrat in. I have to disagree, because I'm a mischief maker. Actually, the Reform Party drew heavilly from the N.D.P. nationally in the past. What will help the N.D.P. here is a strong PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE number, because that party will draw from soft Alliance and Liberal support, while scarcely at all from the N.D.P. The Alliance would displace more fair-weather New Democrats than Liberals, regardless of how few of each. Now, we know the conservatives aren't exactly going to be on fire in Trinnity-Spadina, now, with Mr. Harris so popular here and at this point in their history. So, let's assume this riding is too close to call but my strong hunch is a Liberal win.
30/10/00 Sandy Berger Email:
In 1997, the NDP had a strong candidate, a great issue, dramatic TV images of the local race late in the election and were taken seriously. They failed to win. Michael Valpy is no Olivia Chow, and has no candidate skills or ethnic political contacts. The Liberals are restoring spending and have muted the rage aimed at them in 1997. Stockwell Day hysteria will polarize the electorate around a Liberal/CA Axis in English Canada. Ianno has more money, more experience, more contacts and more volunteers than 1997. The NDP have less of everything. Tony Ianno couldn't be knocked out of this riding with dynamite. Period.
30/10/00 J. Reed
The only reason that Olivia Chow didn't pull it off for the NDP in 1997 was that the Tories ran a candidate that did SO poorly that she couldn't pull enough votes away from the Libs. If the NDP can get any seats in Ontario, it will be this one.
30/10/00 Malcolm Email:
It is worth remembering that back in the early '80s Trudeau plucked the obscure Peter Stollery off the back bech and plunked him into the Senate in order to open "the safest Liberal riding in English Canada" for his lick-spittle lapdog Jim Coutts. The media coverage focussed on the two star candidates -- Jim "elect me because the PM loves me" Coutts for the libs and prominent feminist Laura Sabia for the Tories. The New Democrat "former" Anglican priest Dan Heap, was ignored by the media. Funny thing -- on election night, Dan Heap won. And the media got a lesson in sacramental theology and dropped the "former" they'd been incorrectly placing in front of "Anglican priest."
01/11/00 initials Email:
The recent Hill-Times article, featured currently on Bourque, gives Valpy a good chance . . . .
01/11/00 CC Email:
Very close race but the people here are feeling like a more interesting voice in Ottawa (read: not an invisible sheep backbencher in the government). This is one riding that has never really cared about the whole "Gotta have a seat in government" argument or the "CA or Liberals" crap. It'll be close but it'll probably be the only NDP seat in central Canada.
02/11/00 Scott C. Email:
The strength of the NDP has always been its on-the-ground organization in this riding. That is being bolstered by volunteers from across the city, moving to the one riding where the party has an excellent chance. This is going to be incredibly close, both for Valpy and the NDP itself, once again on the border of non-party status. Ianno has a guaranteed level of core support but it isn't growing --- you can win one election as a quiet backbencher, two is stretching it. He hasn't impressed. Valpy's appeal may be wider than Chow's and the party's faithful are behind him. Look for a lower than usual Liberal turnout to spell victory for the lefties here.
03/11/00 Jeff W Email:
Valpy's profile from the Globe and his pro-monarchist stance give him the chance for cross-over appeal to Alliance and Tory supporters, but he risks alienating left-NDPers. The race will be decided by how many of the latter stay home or go Green.
03/11/00 Rob M.
I am not a fan of the Liberals, but I don't think the NDP will come as they did last time. Olivia Chow (NDP candidate in '97) had political profile and commitment to the community. Mr. Valpy (the current NDP candidate) may be a decent fellow, but not an Olivia Chow. Plus, all the development of condos and townhouses in the south end of the riding is Liberal (or heaven forbid Alliance) territory not NDP.
05/11/00 DDTW Email:
I give the slight edge to Valpy and the NDP here. Both NDP and Liberals are putting in major guns in TO, but I am hearing more and more "time for a change" sentiment in general, and the soft vote will favour Valpy both for that reason and because of the slight charisma he has from his G&M days. If the CRCAP had greater presence, they might take more anti-government vote, but I think they'll remain low this time around.
06/11/00 Carl Irvine Email:
THe liberals are going to clean up in Trinity-Spadina. While it's true that Olivia Chow came close last time, she has been the city councillor in the riding for years. Michael Valpy, whatever his other merits, doesn't have the community roots that Chow had, nor does he have the community connections. Tony Ianno, on the other hand, has a strong base of support in the Italian and portuguese communitities, and while he's a lousy MP, he's good a constituency work. Valpy will go over well with the Globe readers in the annex, but will get smoked in the rest of the riding.
06/11/00 BRY
Although, this riding has a history of going NDP in the past, ie Dan Heap in 1988, don't count on it with Tony Ianno holding the Liberal banner. Mr. Ianno is the quintessential "King of Kensington", retail politician and has high local popularity - add to this the fact that the Liberals are close to 60% in the GTA and the picture becomes clearer. There are very few politicios in Canada that know how to run a better riding campaign than Ianno. Watch for Ianno to beat the NDP in getting out the vote and win with a comfortable margin.
09/11/00 MH Email:
Valpy is a good candidate who will do well between the railway tracks and Harbord, possibly south to College,east of Ulster. But he doesn't have Chow's clout among voters of Chinese origin. Meanwhile Ianno will clean up among voters of Italian and Portuguese origin. If Chow couldn't win it in 1997, Valpy is extremely unlikely to do so in 2000.
10/11/00 AL
Dan Heap did quite well through a byelection and several elections without being Chinese, Italian or Portuguese. I think Liberals tend to betray a rather limited view of "ethnics" by their apparent belief that people only vote for "one of their own." Don't forget that the Olivia Chow machine is in full gear for the municipal election and is also sending out the "vote Valpy" message just as the Marchese machine is promoting Valpy among the Italian and Portuguese communities.
12/11/00 Greg Email:
That Olivia Chow was a high-profile counsellor actually hurt her in the final days of the '97 election. I remember receiving a very slick Liberal Party flyer just two days before the election. It didn't say much about Ianno, but it took pains to misconstrue Olivia Chow's municipal voting record. Very negative, very nasty, went to just about every house in the riding, and was released too late for the NDP to respond. Ianno will have a much harder time misconstruing the actions of Valpy - ironically, because up to now Valpy's been strictly an armchair politician. It's true that he doesn't have the profile of Olivia Chow, but he does have her full support, as well as the support of the other popular local NDP councillors. I predict that they won't even break stride after their romp to municipal re-election this Monday. Then Olivia Chow will begin mobilising the Chinese community, just like she did last time... she's even on his election signs, along with the other councillor, MPP, and school board trustee from the riding. Oh, and one last thing, a response to Mr. Mischief - the Alliance has been attracting working-class, blue collar NDP supporters. Therefore the Alliance flies in Oshawa. However, Trinity-Spadina holds the educated liberal intellectual variety of NDP supporters. They're about as likely to switch to CA as the CA is to take this riding.
13/11/00 Peter Pereira Email:
Toss up. Strategic voting is being brought up and many may hold their noses to get rid of a Liberal. is getting ad space in Toronto Star (3 ads, Monday, Nov 13), but, is owned by name registrar with an axe to grind. went up today in response.
19/11/00 Delroy Email:
For the record, I am a card carrying Liberal both Federal and Provincial, while the same cannot be said for Iaano.This is the only race where if I had the chance I would most certainly vote for the NDP. Iaano was a total snake during the "dump Dalton" exercise, however the 81% approval rating McGuinty got shows that Iaano does not have the influence his oversized egothought he did. The only MPP who backs him is Cordiano... nuff said.
19/11/00 Jim Burnett Email:
I am new to this riding, but now live here. My sense is that Valpy will carry the day in a close race. He is obviously winning the sign war and has had more presence on the campaign from the writ. Olivia Chow and Rosario Marchese are also actively campaigning on his behalf.
20/11/00 AK Email:
I think people misunderstand Tony Ianno here - take a walk through Chinatown and see all the Liberal signs - Valpy might be a good guy, but a lot of people voted for Olivia Chow here last year for her community work. I think Ianno will get the same votes that he had last time and carry the riding. He does do good work up in Ottawa - maybe makes less noise than some of the other people there, but represents his people's interests well - and will continue to do so for four more years.
20/11/00 AL
Valpy seems to be winning the sign war.
22/11/00 Robert M.
I think the sign war looks pretty even, maybe Valpy ahead but sometimes its hard to see the Liberal signs - Valpy's are more noticeable (are they more effective?). Valpy's campaign literature was pretty good I thought - a hard-hitting attack on the Liberals lumping them in with Alliance (especially good for traditionally Tory voters (the whopping 3,000 in the riding) trying to figure out whether to vote PC to support the national vote or NDP to get a Liberal MP out). Maybe the NDP stands more of a chance than I originally thought!
24/11/00 AL
All the talk these last few days of the possibility and desirability of a minority government will result in a small but decisive number of non-Liberal, non-NDP voters to vote strategically for Valpy in order to help deny the Grits a majority.
25/11/00 Anthony Email:
The Liberals have done nothing regarding the homelessness which is in this riding and many are sick of this.
25/11/00 JeffW Email:
Apparently, at an all-candidates meeting on the 21st, the Green Party candidate actually endorsed Valpy. This should help minimize splintering the Left vote (always a danger here), and may give Valpy the edge he needs in this tight race.
25/11/00 Michael Ensley
This is the only riding in play for the NDP in Ontario. Those who want to block a liberal MP must vote NDP to do so. If the NDP pulls others from other parties voting against the Liberals they will win this riding. If not they are toast.
25/11/00 A. C.
Sign count for several east Annex streets, where on past experience I would expect perhaps a 1.5:1 edge for the NDP: NDP 49, Liberal 21, Alliance 6. There is a noticeable lack of Ianno signs on the wealthier streets: on Admiral Road, for instance, there are 3 each for Ianno and Monaco, with 4 for Valpy. On Madison, Valpy and Ianno have 4 each, Monaco 1. West of Spadina Rd. is usually better ground for the NDP, and on the one street I tried there, Walmer Rd, it was no contest: V 25, I 8, M 1. While I agree that ethnic voters are unlikely to be as motivated by a Globe & Mail columnist as they were by Olivia Chow, Valpy may be doing so well up here that it won't matter as much what Ianno does down there (not to mention that "down there" is a lot less like "King of Kensington" than it used to be). Earlier on I assumed that Valpy couldn't match Chow's 1997 performance, but now I've got a hunch that he'll come as close as she did or closer. It will come down, here as else where, to how many unenthusiastic Liberal supporters bother to vote.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
although I am not a socialist, NDP better win this seat to have any credibility with no chance of a CA victory-why would all the lefties and do gooders vote for a Liberal party that gives tax cuts to the middle class- it will be a good test to the argument of social investment over tax cuts-if LIBs win-then face it most people like tax cuts
26/11/00 DJ
The polls showing the Liberals with a secure lead over the Alliance will allow strategic voters to go for Valpy without fear of an Alliance government. Valpy over Ianno by a nose.
26/10/00 A.S. Email:
This is where I made my first entry, long long before Valpy entered the picture; this is where I'll make my last entry, and due to the plethora of reasons, many of them gone over above, I'm still in a quandary. Yes, Olivia Chow was as "winner" as they come and couldn't unseat Ianno in '97; but it depends whether there's more tar--or a different quality of tar--upon the Liberals in 2000. Also, the local NDP organizations seem to have learned from Chow's humiliation and are concentrating even more determinedly, comprehensively, strategically upon Valpy, almost in a party-leader kind of way--a cross between Alexa in '97 and Joe in '00. And while Chow may have been damaged by being too "municipal" for Parliament Hill, Valpy's a fascinating, Wendy Lillish exotic who might just seem more valid, even invigorating within that context (and gee, he was once the stepfather of Trudeau's daughter...). And as time goes on and the NDP (memo to Day's scare-mongerers: remember "very very scary" Broadbent from '88?) becomes more and more innocuous, I'd believe it if the "strategic" undecided decides this time that the "arrogant, corrupt" Liberals are worthier of being stopped/avoided than any useless, time-warped socialists. (Which might mean that, rather than switching to Valpy, the condo-dwellers'll vote with their PC/Alliance hearts, much as they do provincially--such what-the-heck right-splitting allowed Rosario Marchese to survive the Bob Rae backlash; condos which voted Grit in '90 voted "no-hope" PC in '95, and PC even surpassed 20% here in '99.) But darn, it's megaGrit Toronto...

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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