Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Vancouver Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-03-29 21:08:16

Constituency Profile


Allan, Elaine

Barnes, Constance

Barrett, Lisa

Clarke, John

Fry, Hedy

Hill, Michael

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 6221.50%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Vancouver Centre
   (187/187 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Hedy Fry


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 13 BC predictor
I'm changing my prediction here to LPC from NDP. I think this will continue to be a battle ground seat that favors the NDP in a contest with no incumbent but Hedy will hold it this time
15 10 10 Marco Ricci
Every few elections, there is a surprising case of a long-term MP losing their seat despite their own party doing very well Nationally.
I suppose it is possible in theory that Hedy Fry could be one of those cases of a long-term MP who's been around for 20 years who just ends up staying one election too long and ends up being the victim of a desire for riding change.
BUT, absent any evidence of the NDP being ahead here (eg. no riding polls here so far), all the numbers for this riding show that Hedy should win. Easily.
So while I am keeping open the possibility of a stronger than usual NDP challenge to Hedy this year, it's hard to make it happen unless the Liberal vote tanks in British Columbia in the final week coming up. As opposed to the Ignatieff crash in 2011, the Liberals are doing well right now in B.C. and have now overtaken the NDP nationally. So unless there are a lot of anti-Hedy voters who decide to buck the National trends, the odds are she will be winning an 8th term.
15 10 03 jawnbc
At the Xtra candidates meeting, the issue of Hedy Fry's voting record in 2014 came up. She missed almost half the votes in Parliament in 2014, despite having no critic role. This stuck to Ignatieff in 2011 and might well be the straw that tips this in favour of Constance Barnes. NDP pickup
15 09 23 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold, Fry kept this in the Liberal meltdowns of 2008 and 2011, no way she loses this now with the Liberals doing better.
15 09 20 Milo
This is a head to head fight between Hedy and Constance Barnes. While either would be a good choice for the riding, it seem impossible to rule out a Liberal hold here, as the overall Liberal vote within BC was so decimated in the last election. With Hedy Fry's immense popularity and profile in the riding, along with the overall rise in Liberal fortunes in the province, aided by conservative voters without an all-star candidate this time moving to Fry to stop the NDP, this will be another Hedy Fry Hometown Lockdown.
15 09 08 blondboybc
I'm putting this in the TCTC this time round, for a few reasons. First, with the removal of a large chunk of the riding to Vancouver Granville between 4th and 16th, the Liberals and Cons will be losing about 1,000 votes each, from what I gather. This leaves the stronger areas for the Dippers of the West End and Fairview. Additionally, I'm reading that about 25% of former Lib voters are moving to NDP, and about 10% of form Con voters are doing likewise. I'd also argue that C. Barnes' name recognition is much higher, given her work as a VPB rep. since 2008. So, at this point in the campaign, I predict about 35% NDP, 33% Lib, 12% Con, and 20% Grn.
15 09 04 Tim Feyburn
This riding is going to stay Liberal. Incumbent Hedy Fry has a history of delivering for her constituents. The only thing will be the Tom Mulcair factor, however, Constance Barnes has a...history, which could cancel out the Mulcair factor and see Fry victorious.
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
I agree that the Conservatives will probably be less of a factor here this year. In previous years they have been able to finish 2nd here when they were on the rise Nationally or had a high-profile candidate like Lorne Mayencourt. Mayencourt was the main rival to Hedy Fry the year he ran and Hedy admitted on election night that he was the one she was watching the most closely.
This year, the NDP is likely to be the main rival to Hedy in Vancouver Centre, and based on her Twitter postings, Hedy is keeping a close eye on the NDP this time around.
I agree with the poster below that there will be some voters making strategic decisions and following the National trends into October.
Yesterday's new Abacus poll shows the NDP dropping a few points Nationally and the Liberals rising, so it will be interesting to see if this effects voters in Vancouver Centre:
15 08 25 Bruce MacDonald
I wonder how many voters there are in Vancouver Centre like me. I have voted for Hedy Fry four times, the only exception being a sympathy vote for Svend Robinson. But I'm a strategic voter. My first priority is to deny the Cons government. That means voting for the party that is most likely to take more seats than they do. This year, that looks to be the NDP, so I'm gravitating toward them, though not 100% decided. If the NDP is ahead in the late polls, there may be enough voters thinking along similar lines to tip my riding to the NDP. There is no chance for the Cons here, while in previous elections they did run 'strong' candidates (I just can't bring myself to describe Lorne Mayencourt as 'strong' without the scare quotes.), so we can actually vote the way we really want, for once.
15 08 24 BC predictor
I think the CPC odds here are overstated and the residents of the riding that are progressive know this.
Strategic voting by NDP supporters has kept Hedy alive in the past but with the NDP knocking on the door of a Minority they won't vote Liberal this time.
NDP win with >35% of the vote
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
I agree that Hedy Fry is not guaranteed to win here. In my first post below, I pointed out the close result she had in 2011. What's important to remember about 2011, however, is that it was one of the worst years the Liberals have ever had in British Columbia. So it may have been the fault of the National Liberal campaign & Michael Ignatieff rather than Hedy herself.
For now the Liberals will probably retain the advantage here. Justin Trudeau attended the Vancouver Pride Parade last week (which Tom Mulcair skipped) and that was a positive way of showing support for the riding's gay community. Trudeau also chose Vancouver to open his Election Campaign, and he will probably also emphasize his family connections to B.C. over the next 2 months. So we will see how this one develops.
15 08 10 DougP
Hedy may have met her match this time 'round. That said, when she marched in the recent Pride Parade with Prince Charming by her side - well!!! ;)
New Democrat Constance Barnes carries a name to be reckoned with: her daddy Emery Barnes was the long time NDP MLA for Vancouver - Burrard which covers much of Vancouver Centre and he was Speaker of the BC Legislature. West Enders still hold him in high regard. She happens to be the first woman of colour that Hedy has faced and she has a high profile as former Chair of the Vancouver Parks Board. The Con's closure of the Kits Coast Guard base in this riding was magnified by the recent English Bay oil spill; its an issue. BTW - like Hedy, Connie's feisty! Can't hardly wait for the local candidates' debates!
A third factor are the Greenies: This riding is #3 after Saanich - Gulf Islands and Victoria. They're likely to hurt the dippers more than the Liberals, but I suspect its a soft vote that may go NDP in the crunch (or is that the 'crush'?). All in all a riding getting closer and closer to TCTC. Full disclosure: like Matthew I live in this riding.
15 08 08 Laurence Putnam
I am bowing to history for now, but 'Bye Bye Hedy' raises some very apt points. Past results are not a guarantee of future success. The riding keeps changing, Hedy keeps getting older and the NDP and Conservatives BOTH keep getting stronger in this riding, each for different reasons. Throw in a respectable Green result to help skewer the options - somebody could win this riding with 30% and it may not necessarily be Hedy. The NDP could absolutely upset here. Given the 3-way left wing split, there is a scenario where the Conservatives could probably do it as well....although I'm not seeing that coming together this go-around.
15 08 05 Bye Bye Hedy
Hedy has gone from a minor cabinet posting, to a backbencher, to an opposition critic of even more minor ministries, to not even a member of the opposition. Her whole career is one long slide into obscurity. Apart from her self-aggrandizing flyers of selfies she sends out at taxpayer's expense, we never hear about her or from her. Serious voters in Vancouver Centre are desparate for someone else but the alternatives are not exactly thrilling. The NDP is going to squeak through in this riding on the basis of the orange wave and the fact that most conservatives in BC live outside of this riding.
15 08 03 JawnBC
Hedy Fry has beaten two high profile candidates. But Kim Campbell barely beat ten Hertog for the seat back in 88. Robinson parachuting in was ill-timed and doomed from the start. Not sure who the other 'star candidates' were for the Tories or NDP. In 2011 an NDP stand-in candidate with little campaigning got within a few thousand votes of Fry. People are tired of her--most Grits supporters i know think she should have stepped aside for a younger person 4 years ago. Many swing voters are so angry about C-51 that they're looking elsewhere to vote. NDP have a good candidate who is a politician and who understand campaigning. Expect this to be close.
15 07 31 Matthew
I live in this riding and, as much as it pains me, I think the NDP could win here this time. The NDP is surging in BC and the winning vote margin was quite small last time. Constance Barnes is a presentable NDP candidate with decent name recognition. I'm not prepared to outright call it for the NDP, but I think it should be considered at least too close to call for now.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Hedy Fry is a giant slayer, taking down every star candidate thrown at her, including a Prime Minister. She should have no problem winning again.
15 06 26 seasaw
If an election were held today, I don't know if Heddy Fry would win this. With NDP now surging in polls, this is a type of riding that could go NDP. Fry's been an MP for over two decades now and a lot of people think it's time for her to retire, but it's still early and anything can happen
15 04 05 BJ
Vancouver Centre has always been the beach-head seat for the federal Liberals in BC. Aside from an interruption by former red tory PC MPs, this seat has always been held by the Liberals.
Aside from that, Vancouver Centre has also seen considerable change in its boundaries and demographics. The major condominium developments in North False Creek, Yaletown and Coal Harbour within the downtown peninsula, over the years, has seen both a concurrent population growth and shrinkage of riding boundaries. Based upon provincial election results, the population in these areas is `liberal` centre-right in its leanings.
With the collapse of the federal Liberal vote to 13% in BC in 2011, this former centre-right Liberal vote in the riding went CPC in 2011. And the former centre-left Liberal vote in the West End went NDP as well.
In 2015, both that centre-left and centre-left vote seems to be returning back to the Liberals in the City of Vancouver proper en masse. The evidence to corroborate same is the leaked internal Liberal riding poll of Vancouver East - the NDP`s strongest seat in Vancouver proper. The 2011 NDP vote there has collapsed to 34% from 2011 and the Liberals are right behind at 27% with a major increase in the Green Party vote.
Again, the Liberals have also leaked information to the Huff Post concerning internal Liberal riding polls for Vancouver proper, the North Shore, and neighbouring Burnaby (north), where the Liberals are in 1st place over the CPC.
Again, further corroborative evidence that both 2011 CPC and NDP vote switchers are returning back to the Liberal fold. BTW, again, these urban areas have always been the federal Liberal strength in BC.
If the Green Party momentum and surge on Vancouver Island ever crosses the Strait of Georgia onto mainland BC, this riding would be the Greens first pick-up due to fertile underlying `green` demographics. But that will require a star candidate and is still at least another election cycle away.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
Hedy Fry did not hallucinate about imaginary cross-burnings. It was reported by the press several years ago that Hedy Fry mixed up Prince George with the city of Merritt where a Ku Klux Klan grand wizard was later arrested.
Now getting back to the actual riding itself, Fry won here more narrowly than expected in 2011. That was probably because of the Ignatieff collapse, but it still shows that the riding can be competitive.
Because the NDP came closer than expected in 2011, they have recruited a stronger candidate this time, Constance Barnes, who was a Park commissioner.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives don't seem to be targeting the seat yet the way they did in 2008 when they ran former MLA Lorne Mayencourt.
Now that Adriane Carr is in municipal politics, we probably won't see as strong a campaign here from the Green Party, either.
Therefore, this is likely to be a Liberal-NDP race with the advantage going to Fry, but with the possibility for the NDP to be competitive.
15 04 04 A.S.
At this point, Hedy The Loon's consistent pattern of coming out through the middle in electoral obstacle courses ensures that her races will be eternally more 'interesting' than 'safe'--however, if this turns out to be her strongest/safest race ever, it'll be less due to Hedy per se than to the reflected glory of the spawn of local Grit royalty, Margaret Sinclair.
15 03 29 Stevo
Hedy Fry, the woman most famous for hallucinating about imaginary cross-burnings in Prince George (remember that?), wins again. Like Carolyn Bennett, Fry is a hyper-partisan oddball but people in this riding like that about her.
15 03 29 monkey
The Liberals will win here by default not because they are strong in any part of the riding but rather both the NDP and Conservatives have sections which are hostile to them. The Tories will do well in Yaletown and Coal Harbour where you have a lot of wealthy condo owners but get clobbered in the West End which has a large gay community. By contrast the NDP will do well in the West End but get clobbered in Yaletown and Coal Harbour. The Liberals will win by simply being competitive in all sections of riding.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
No chance Fry loses this. The LPC has grown, and she is an incumbent
15 03 24 Fairview Resident
If this riding stays Liberal when the party drops to 13.4% in BC and former BC Green leader wins 9,000 votes, then it stays Liberal when the party is in contention for first place in the province and the former BC Green leader is happily on city council. Redistribution doesn't change the margins.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
In a bad year for the Liberals, Hedy held this riding. The CPC has been waning on the Lower mainland, so they won't be putting up much of a fight here. The NDP have thrown everything at Hedy in the past and she endured. While the Green have room to grow here, it's more likely they'll focus on Vancouver Island. This will certainly be a Liberal hold.
15 03 22 Brian A
This was a 3-way split that the Liberals won when they had Iggy at the helm. Under Trudeau, I don't see them losing progressive urban seats, especially with a candidate like Fry that is so popular with the Davies Street crowd, and a leader that is so receptive to the pot smokers. The NDP will challenge, for sure, and the Greens may even be able to put up a good fight; but this one will ultimately stay Red.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
A true four-way race given that Greens are targetting ridings in urban coastal BC, and could well decide that Hedy Fry is just not small-g green enough to leave in the House. Not necessarily the best choice of target, and likely to complicate Liberal-Green vote swapping elsewhere, but still possible.
If the Greens did target it without effectively conceding other coastal BC ridings to the NDP, disgust by their own supporters and Liberal supporters might well shift this one NDP. The dynamics are very hard to predict, but on the numbers, a 16% gap between Green support in 2011 and the Liberal winner makes this one of the most likely targetted vote-split ridings in BC.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster