15 10 17	poljunkiebc 24.85.198.4
Certainly incumbency advantage here, but this riding has elected LPC before and if they're ever going to do it again, it's probably this election, bearing in mind the polls below too.
	15 10 13	Jc 24.212.227.58
As per Marco Ricci the poll from September 14-23 showed the Results in Rural Manitoba at 49 CPC 33 Lib 13 NDP it also showed indigenous voters at 44 Lib 31 NDP 22 CPC, I have to believe the Liberals have increased their numbers in both of these areas and I would suspect that it may be enough to push Rebecca Chartrand to victory. This is a very tough riding to campaign in and we haven't had many ground reports but I think the libs can pull it off.
	15 10 06	Marco Ricci 99.241.63.7
The recent PROBE poll for Manitoba showed the Liberals leading the NDP in not just Winnipeg, but in the Northern and rural areas of Manitoba, as well. If that is the case, it may be possible for the Liberals to edge out a win here. The new polling numbers also now have this riding narrowly leaning back into the Liberal column at 308. Ashton may still have the edge because of incumbency & name recognition, but it will be interesting to see if Trudeau comes here to campaign with the Liberal candidate. If he does, we will know this seat is in play.
	15 09 29	Monkey Cheese 99.242.194.247
If Ashton wasn't the incumbent, I agree that this would have been a ripe Liberal pickup. However, she is a high profile incumbent and I think on that basis she'll hold on. The real battle will be for second place, which I think will be won by the Liberals due to their higher Manitoba polling numbers. The Conservatives will fall to third here.
	15 09 27	A.S. 99.233.125.239
At least on the surface, the 'Libs leading in Churchill' brouhaha is the ultimate demonstration of the dangers of airheadedly using (or abusing) 308/FPTP projections as some kind of psephological talking GPS. Look: the prime Liberal gains are likelier in urban places like Winnipeg than way out here, and any Liberal projection's just as well skewed by how (thanks in part to First Nations pocket politics) the 2011 Grit tally here far excelled what was typical for rural Manitoba that year. And besides, re any Selinger-era tar the NDP label might presently carry: remember that Niki's dad Steve opposed Selinger for the provincial leadership. Twice. It's a different Dipper empire (and arguably a 'rootsier' one) way up north.
	15 09 08	Brian Lonsdale 174.93.33.91
I think that this is another riding that needs to be moved to 'Too close to Call.' Polling in Manitoba for the NDP is dismal and Churchill-Keewatinook is one riding that is now showing that the Liberals will win the riding, albeit with a 53% chance as opposed to the NDP at 47%. Niki Ashton is no shoo-in and like a lot of ridings in this election, there are going to be a lot of close races. It is too soon to call this riding for the NDP.
	15 09 06	Marco Ricci 99.241.63.7
With Liberal numbers ahead of the NDP in Manitoba (and far ahead in yesterday's EKOS poll), the Liberals now have a chance of winning this seat. Niki Ashton probably still retains the edge based on incumbency advantage & name recognition, but it's interesting to note that sites like 308 now show this seat as narrowly leaning Liberal (53% chance): http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html
	15 07 16	R.O. 24.146.23.226
The conservatives have made some gains here and liberals have some support as well but ndp have too much of a hold on this riding . and its too remote /incumbent friendly for there to be a realistic chance anyone else takes it . Niki Ashton likely will continue as mp here.
	15 04 30	Aaron H. 70.54.136.49
I think that many posters here are giving the riding to Ashton and yet the NDP is in trouble provincially in Manitoba and several federal NDP MPs are probably going to pay for it with their seats and Ashton, according to threehundredeight.com is one of those MPs. Ashton doesn't have any opponents yet, and she trails a generic Liberal candidate by more than 8 points and has only a 31% chance of winning her riding as of information based on data to April 27, 2015, posted on the threehundredeight.com website. I think that the prediction status should be changed back to 'Too Close' until at least some other data is available to refute the generally good analysis that is produced on the threehundredeight.com website.
	15 04 26	Marco Ricci 99.241.63.7
I give Ashton the edge based on her incumbency and the NDP history in this riding. However, I agree with the poster below that there could be a closer race here than last time. Because NDP numbers are lower than usual in Manitoba, there's the potential for the Liberals to move up in Churchill. Ashton has name recognition, (and her father Steve ran against Premier Selinger this year for the NDP leadership), so the Ashton legacy gives the NDP a solid base here. But the Liberals have nominated Rebecca Chartrand, an Aboriginal woman who is a Community Development Worker, and if NDP numbers are still down in Manitoba in October, she has the potential to give Ashton a closer race.
	15 03 30	JC 69.165.234.184
I do think Ashton has an advantage here being the incumbent but in no way does she have this locked up. The Liberals do have some interested in their nomination she's done extensive work on Aboriginal issues and in no way should she be counted out, this is in no way a lock.
	15 03 24	Dr. Bear 204.187.20.75
While it may be foolhardy to discount the Liberals here; after all, they have won this seat in the past (and threehundredeight is calling this a Liberal gain with 42% of the vote to the NDP 34%); I think that Niki Ashton will hold the riding for the NDP. Personal appeal will trump the overall trends IMHO.
	15 03 21	Brian A 174.114.116.132
Niki has been relentless on the aboriginal file, and one of the most passionate MP's in the NDP caucus on the issues that directly affect her riding. Easy NDP hold.
	15 03 18	Craig Hubley 76.11.94.51
Churchill rejected a Tar Sands port, and they'll reject the Conservatives, and for the same reason. Native vote should consolidate around the NDP or Greens (where they have a chance) in 2015 due to waffling by Trudeau on Bill C-51 and support for Western Tar Sands pipelines and Keystone XL (strongly opposed by the Lakota Sioux).
	15 03 18	Craig Hubley 76.11.94.51
Churchill rejected a Tar Sands port, and they'll reject the Conservatives, and for the same reason. Native vote should consolidate around the NDP or Greens (where they have a chance) in 2015 due to waffling by Trudeau on Bill C-51 and support for Western Tar Sands pipelines and Keystone XL (strongly opposed by the Lakota Sioux).