Prediction Changed
10:32 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Ashton, Niki
Daudrich, Wally
Harvie, Saara
Keeper, Tina

Tina Keeper

2006 Result:
Tina Keeper
Niki Christina Ashton
Bev Desjarlais **
Nazir Ahmad
Jeff Fountain
Brad Bodnar

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 PB
Even with Keeper having the advantage of incumbency, I see this flipping back to the NDP given the lack of an independent to bleed NDP support and the stronger national NDP campaign this time. I do expect this one to be called late, though, as Keeper's strength - the reserve vote - will be the last to be counted. Still, if Ashton can GOTV in the mining towns, she should win.
08 10 06 JC
Okay really, Rallies don't mean anything here. THIS IS a very rural and sparse riding. Thompson is only a town of around 13,000. 50 People may not be much but seriously look at the riding, it is very sparse and there are many small towns.
08 10 01 OldHack
WFP is running a story this morning that the combination of former Prime Minister Paul Martin and Liberal candidate Tina Keeper was only able to draw a crowd of 50 people in Thompson. If that's the best the Liberals can do to pull party faithful out in one of Churchill's major centres, the Liberal hiccup is over. Back to the NDP!
08 09 28 Frank Hanley
No, Desjarlais was not the real reason why the NDP lost this riding: It was because of Ashton. Granted, Desjarlais should've been properly disciplined for breaking party ranks over the same-sex marriage legislation in 2005, but then she should'v been allowed to coast through an uncontested nomination meeting, straight to the polls, and onto an easy victory for the NDP. Instead, Ashton, opportunist that she is, wanted to start her career in politics by bumping off an easy mark like Desjarlais. Had she not contested the NDP nomination in Churchill, then I have no doubt that the NDP would've taken it in '06.
08 09 27 HJ
NDP pickup. IMO, the only reason the NDP lost here in '06 was because of Desjarlais. With him out of the picture, it will probably go back to the NDP. In addition, the Liberals are probably behind the NDP in MB polls.
08 09 26 daniel
Keeper will keep, and here's why:
The Bev Desjarlais independent candidacy garnered a lot of support from the Conservative candidate the last time around. She was the one endorsed by the anti-gay marriage groups. About 1000 of those people who voted for her last time will go back to voting conservative, and the rest will split themselves between Tina Keeper (who is extremely popular in the riding) and the NDP. It might be a little closer, but this one is staying liberal.
08 09 24 Matt
Last time the NDP lost only because of Bev Desjarlais being on the ballot. This time the NDP should take back the riding, but it will be close.
08 09 15 Northern Dude
Tina Keeper although considered a star is a very hard working MP and she has worked to be representative of the entire riding, which is larger then many European nations, from First Nations communities to several small towns, she understands the north from a bi-cultural perspective and connects well with all sorts of people. If she continues to campaign hard, get out the Aboriginal vote and get more support from the towns, she will take this riding.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
With the Bev D. factor gone, the NDP will get back on track.
08 09 10 Chriswpg
A re-match between the incumbent Tina Keeper and young up and comer Niki Ashton representing the NDP. With one exception, minus Bev Desjarlais. Over a year ago I looked over the poll by poll results and saw Niki Ashton did really well in places like Thompson, The Pas and Churchill. While Tina Keeper won the lion's share of votes from First Nation communities. While I noticed that Bev Desjarlais support was strongest in the places like Thompson, etc and even drew some support from First Nations communities as well.
IMO, all Tina Keeper needs to do is hold on to her base while trying to acquire at least one quarter of Bev Desjarlais's supporters. I will be biting my nails on this one. This time it will be much closer. Maybe the winner this time winning the riding by a margin of a couple hundred votes. I predict this seat holds, barely.
08 09 10 awum
Last election, Ashton led the count after urban areas were counted. Votes from outlying areas came in, Keeper piled on and won handily. She out-organized Ashton out there. Contacts at the local government level (Chiefs, etc.) turned aside past support for the NDP due to the high-profile excitement over Keeper's celebrity/activist appeal. She had real buzz.
This time around, expect Ashton's urban lead to be bigger with lack of acrimony and vote-splitting with Desjarlais. Expect Ashton to do better in the outlying communities. She's better organized, and has been working much harder travelling to all corners of the riding. Ask folks up there; they've seen more of Ashton than their current MP. Keeper is a low-profile MP who hasn't met her high expectations. She's a ‘parachute’ candidate with no ‘Northern’ cred. Unlike Ashton, she's never really lived in the North.
Should go NDP if Ashton can get her supporters out. Keeper's residual First Nations base may prove tough but still, this might not even be close.
08 09 09 Porter
The combined votes of Ashton and Desjarlais last time would have been more enough to defeat Tina Keeper. From the Winnipeg Free Press:
‘That's one reason some Liberal insiders think the riding is all but lost. Critics also grumble that Keeper hasn't exactly been front-and-centre on northern issues like hydro development or land claims.’
08 09 08 Al
This is going to the NDP.
1) Consider the track record of northern ridings... they generally go NDP
2) Consider this riding had an an NDP incumbent up against an NDP candidate last time... combine the votes and it's a NDP win guaranteed
3) Consider the previous elections... NDP traditionally wins this seat
4) Consider how well the Green Shift is received in Northern areas where they will most be devastated by Carbon Taxes.
- This isn't too close to call... it's NDP.
08 09 07 Kit A
I think this is a tough riding to call. Tina Keeper won it for the Liberals based on a few things. The NDP was split between their incumbent who was running as an Independent last time and Nicki Ashton who was an ardent campaigner and carried the NDP banner. This time the NDP vote will not be split. Another thing is that Keeper drew high levels of support from First Nations communities which gave her a good margin. In part there was a sense that she might sit in Paul Martin's cabinet, or at least be influential in caucus, however, things have changed and she sits in opposition. The question is, can she get out the First Nations vote with help from local leaders? or will the NDP make back some of its support there as well as solidifying its Ciy of Thompson supporters and those in other areas? Also, as an actress will Keeper continue to have star power? One thing is clear, the CPC is not in play.
08 07 09 DL
The Liberal Carbon Tax will be a major vote loser in northern and remote ridings like this one. With no Bev Desjarlais there to split the NDP vote, Church will easily swing back to the NDP.
08 04 28 binriso
Liberal advantage and almost certain win, but I think ill put this one TCTC. Incumbent is a good candidate althought the NDP have a good candidate too and likely quite a bit of help coming from the provincial party.
A really weird poll came out from Angus Reid recently too. It put the NDP at 46% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (!!) and 12 points ahead of the CPC and 30 ahead of the Liberals. Obviously this is almost certainly the 20th time out of 20 (ie very inaccurate) but if that were the case, the NDP would be romping to victory in 20 Prairie ridings. Can you imagine that?
08 03 15 David Young
Elijah Harper had a much higher profile than Tina Keeper when he ran for the Liberals in 1993 and won, then lost in 1997 and 2000 to Bev Desjarlais.
Niki Ashton has the family name, a second-place campaign under her belt as experience, and a federal Leader who has slowly and steadily built the NDP up from just 12 seats in 2003 to 30 today, while Stephane Dion leads a party that's gone from 172 seats in 2003 to 95 today.
08 02 25 T.V.
Desjarlais took more votes from the Tories than she did from the NDP last time. She won it on her own name, and now that she's gone, in a dispute that left bad blood in the NDP, the Liberals will easily hold it with their high-profile candidate.
07 12 27 Mark
Pure NDP territory, they only lost the riding last election because of vote splitting between Bev and the NDP candidate.
07 09 09 Nick J Boragina
This one will come down to who the NDP Candidate is. If they can find a strong local name who is popular and well known, then they can win. If not, this is an easy Liberal Lock.
07 05 10 Incisive Logic
Tina Keeper will likely hold Churchill. Dejarlais only beat the Liberal candidate by 1,000 votes in 2004 even with the incumbency advantage. She then was booted from Caucus for voting against same-sex marriage. In the last election, she ran as an independent, winning 4,283 votes and splitting the vote enough to allow Liberal candidate Tina Keeper to win by a comfortable 3,056 votes.
The NDP needs to win back 72% of the 2006 Dejarlais vote to pull ahead of Keeper's 2006 support. But I don’t think that the majority of people who voted for her as an independent in 2006 will necessarily vote NDP again, since the NDP proved to be intolerant of Dejarlais’ social views. Some merely supported her decision to break party ranks, but will go back to the NDP. However, most of the staunch New Democrats stuck with the party last time.
Dejarlais now works for cabinet minister Greg Thompson; many who supported her stance on same-sex marriage will follow her example and support the Conservatives, who have no chance of winning in Churchill. Still others will actually vote Liberal. Many Dejarlais supporters voted against NDP intolerance will vote Liberal since the party is tolerant of moderately conservative social views, but is less fiscally conservative than the Tories. Others will vote Liberal strategically to remove the Conservatives from office. Still others will simply vote for the new incumbent.
The 2006 Dejarlais vote can split three different ways, and I don’t think that enough will return to the NDP to unseat the new incumbent. Even if they win 3/4 of the Dejarlais vote back, Keeper will win enough votes as the incumbent to stay ahead. I suspect that this riding will decide that Keeper is a keeper.
07 05 02 A.S.
Incumbent advantage didn't help Elijah Harper in 1997. Then again, his term in federal office was but a wan, illness-riddled afterlude to his anti-Meech legislative herodom; Tina Keeper's a lot more high-profile and active by comparison--and who knows if it helps that Gerard Kennedy grew up in this riding. So the Grits may be in better shape than a reunified NDP is counting on...perhaps. At worst, who knows, maybe Bev D. might run for the Tories and take over second place...
07 04 27 MCD
I think it's highly optimistic to think that Nikki Ashton will be able to make up 3000 votes on Tina Keeper. I just can't see enough of Bev D's votes going NDP for Ashton to win. The largest number of Bev D's votes will go NDP for sure, but many others will go Conservative and some will go Liberal. It will be a much closer race than last time but, with the advantage of incumbency, I can't see Keeper losing this one.
07 04 25 Polisutdent
If Bev doesn't run this time, there's no way that this seat is staying liberal. This is NDP territory and after the provincial party cleans up here in May, the federal party will follow.
07 04 22
even though this is liberal, there is a high chance that Bev's voters are going to vote for the NDP. If tina Keeper can get a block of these voters then she will squeak through, but if she cannot this is going to a very close riding, a margin of less than a thousand. :)
07 04 21 Ryan N
Independent Bev Desjarlais garnered a respectable 3rd place finish last time, based on her incumbency and her previous NDP association.
Should she choose NOT to run this time, I expect a majority of those votes to revert back to the NDP, thus tipping the riding back to that party's favour.
This is definitely one of the dozen national ridings that I'll be watching closely!
07 04 08 free_thinker
Tina Keeper is the incumbent and enjoys some popularity here. With that said, I would call this for the NDP. They will benefit from most of Bev's votes last year (minus the few that go to the CPC) and, I believe that the Liberals will see a chunk of votes follow polling trends to the CPC therefore paving the way for an NDP upset. Call this for the NDP, its really not going to be close at all.
07 04 07 Brian Appel
It's a rematch between Ashton and Keeper, only this time without Desjarlais taking votes away from them. I'll bet the NDP are kicking themselves for ever tossing Bev to the curb, because if she were the candidate for the Dippers, she'd be a lock to return to Ottawa. This is one to watch, because it's all about where Bev's votes go to. This is a heavily NDP-friendly riding, but it also has a large Native population that likes having one of their own as the representative. Tina's been good to Churchill, and I'm predicting Churchill will be good to her and send her back to the HoC. Niki's a good kid, but I don't think she has the clout, even with her dad's support and good name, to unseat a popular incumbent.
07 03 30 Joe J.
Too close to call. Libs picked it up last time, but Bev D took thousands of votes. It's an open question where Bev's votes fall this time, assuming she doesn't run again. Provincially, the NDP owns the area. It will be an interesting campaign.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
This should be a tight one. Tina Keeper has the incumbent advantage this time around, however without Bev Desjarlais running as an independent, the split on the left between here and the NDP won't exist anymore. Now one must still be careful about adding the two together as I suspect her stance on SSM probably gained her some conservative votes since a Conservative has zero chance at winning her. Either way Tina Keeper is the front-runner but not a shoe-in.

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