Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2009/10

Churchill


Prediction Changed
2009-09-19 14:11:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Incumbent:
Niki Ashton

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • churchill (151/166 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    09 09 08 JF Breton
    207.134.225.57
    Je penche r?solument pour une victoire du NPD ici. Circonscription historiquement n?o-d?mocrate, l'?pisode Desjarlais a fait passer les Lib?raux, ce qui ?tait l'exception. Il suffit d'un candidat conservateur moindrement connu pour diviser le vote. Victoire NPD.
    09 09 07 David Y.
    24.215.109.165
    History has shown that without either a total collapse of NDP support (1993), or a split vote with a former NDP M.P. running as an independent (2006), this riding has been solidly NDP since 1979.
    Niki Ashton is multi-lingual, and has solid family credentials thanks to her father's provincial career as an M.L.A./cabinet minister.
    Easy NDP hold.
    09 08 29 bill
    24.79.243.191
    Really not hard to predict - the only times the NDP has lost this riding in the last 70 years were in 1993 when they were running against Elijah Harper and won 9 seats and less than 7% of the vote, and in 2006 with the split. Ashton won a higher percent of the vote against an incumbent than Bev Desjarlais ever won.
    Safe NDP.
    09 08 23 Observer
    89.180.69.237
    Churchill is not hard to predict. NDP won by large numbers in 2008 election despite this website predicting a Liberal win. Nikki Ashton will surpass the 50% mark
    09 08 22 Hamtan
    99.240.223.75
    Niki Ashton is the *NDP* incumbent. This is one of the safest NDP seats in the country. It would take a 1993 style epic fail for the NDP to lose this. The only reason they lost in 2004 was due to vote splitting with Bev Desjarlais.
    09 08 17 B.O.
    99.247.46.156
    Niki Ashton is the MP. In the next election it seems likely to stay NDP now that there is an NDP incumbent and no more vote splitting like happened in 2006.



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