Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-09-19 14:11:00

Constituency Profile


Ashton, Niki

Daudrich, Wally

Garrioch, Sydney

Spence, Alberteen

Niki Ashton

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • churchill (151/166 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Last time around, the Liberals had a star candidate, Tina Keeper and they still couldn't win largely due to the unpopularity of the carbon tax. While this is no longer on the table, there is the gun registry which is very unpopular and at least the NDP can vote against it while the Liberals cannot. The large aboriginal population here assures the Tories won't win and will probably come in third.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    This riding as 2/3 aboriginal so although the NDP has a strong edge, what candidate is chosen can make a big difference. The Tories have no chance at winning here, but the Liberals could pull off an upset if they have the right candidate.
    11 03 28 jim
    Niki Ashton is a fine young MP, with a bright future. According to facebook, she really gets around in the riding as well, visiting many communities and keeping in touch with voters. Her campaign to save jobs in Thompson will not go unnoticed, therefore I predict a larger margin of victory for her.
    11 03 26 Flatland Man
    Nikki Ashton will win this riding with ease and will probably stretch the lead out. Her family is well connected in the riding as Steve Ashton (her father) is involved in the ruling NDP party and was runner up in the last leadership race. Thompson and the north has long been a traditional NDP stronghold and has been since the provincial parties rise in the late 60s. I do not think it matters at all if the Conservatives are closing here or not. The Liberals should be an afterthought here and finish third.
    11 03 22 Old Flin Flon
    NDP Ashton will win again but there are interesting underlying currents. She is probably the most overrated of the three leading candidates --- in many ways the least accomplished and the least able to accomplish things for the riding; the least inspired and the least inspiring (other than her wholly irrelevant language skills). Notwithstanding strong union support, I would not be surprised if she actually loses several of the major urban centres, Thompson, Flin Flon, The Pas, Lynn Lake and Snow Lake to Conservative Daudrich (an impressive northerner who did surprisingly well in all of these centres last time around) and where the Liberal vote is likely to collapse further. At the same time, Liberal Garrioch may squeeze Ashton's support in many of the overwhelmingly aboriginal communities. I predict Ashton's voting percentage will be slashed and that Daudrich will give the Conservatives their best showing in the riding in 25 years.
    09 09 08 JF Breton
    Je penche r?solument pour une victoire du NPD ici. Circonscription historiquement n?o-d?mocrate, l'?pisode Desjarlais a fait passer les Lib?raux, ce qui ?tait l'exception. Il suffit d'un candidat conservateur moindrement connu pour diviser le vote. Victoire NPD.
    09 09 07 David Y.
    History has shown that without either a total collapse of NDP support (1993), or a split vote with a former NDP M.P. running as an independent (2006), this riding has been solidly NDP since 1979.
    Niki Ashton is multi-lingual, and has solid family credentials thanks to her father's provincial career as an M.L.A./cabinet minister.
    Easy NDP hold.
    09 08 29 bill
    Really not hard to predict - the only times the NDP has lost this riding in the last 70 years were in 1993 when they were running against Elijah Harper and won 9 seats and less than 7% of the vote, and in 2006 with the split. Ashton won a higher percent of the vote against an incumbent than Bev Desjarlais ever won.
    Safe NDP.
    09 08 23 Observer
    Churchill is not hard to predict. NDP won by large numbers in 2008 election despite this website predicting a Liberal win. Nikki Ashton will surpass the 50% mark
    09 08 22 Hamtan
    Niki Ashton is the *NDP* incumbent. This is one of the safest NDP seats in the country. It would take a 1993 style epic fail for the NDP to lose this. The only reason they lost in 2004 was due to vote splitting with Bev Desjarlais.
    09 08 17 B.O.
    Niki Ashton is the MP. In the next election it seems likely to stay NDP now that there is an NDP incumbent and no more vote splitting like happened in 2006.

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