Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley

Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 13:05:55

Constituency Profile


Eyolfson, Doug

Fletcher, Steven

Nichols, Kevin

Paulley, Tom

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
   (180/180 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Steven Fletcher


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
I thought that Tom Paulley was disqualified by Tom Mulcair & the NDP?
Why is he still campaigning using their signs?
In any event, I tend to still give the edge to the Conservatives and Mr. Fletcher based on incumbency and riding history, however, the press reported that there was an enormous turnout for Justin Trudeau in Winnipeg tonight, and that there's a small chance of a Liberal pickup here.
15 10 16
The NDP'S candidate Tom PaulleyXY has done a good job of putting up large NDP Tom Mulclair signs with the leaders picture on it near the polling stations. The NDP will hold there vote in this riding and allow the Conservative Steven Fletcher to win it. Tom finished 2nd in this riding in the 2011 election and will hold onto the traditional NDP vote.
15 10 12 Teddy Boragina
Every time a new 'Prairie' poll comes out, of SK+MB, the Liberals are up a point or two from last time.
Every time a new Manitoba poll is out, the Liberals are up.
Every time a new Winnipeg poll is out, again, the Liberals are up.
My current math actually shows the Liberals winning here ... by, literally, 1 vote. Despite that, the trend is very clear, the Liberals should be able to take this.
15 10 08 Monkey Cheese
The Liberals are in first in the Prairies according to the latest Forum poll and 308 (as of October 8), is calling this a barely held Conservative seat at 50%. With numbers like these I think that this riding needs to once again fall back to TCTC until we get a credible riding poll.
15 09 29 Tiger T
The NDP candidate's withdrawing from the race does create an interesting situation. I do agree that this development creates a net benefit for Liberals in that most NDP supporters list the Libs as they're second choice. This will make the race even tighter. That said, Fletcher still takes this. His base of support is solid. Also, given Fletcher's views on many social issues, and his willingness to speak out, he will take a small number of NDP voters. The other factor that has to be remembered, is that it is well known that there are significant numbers of voters who just don't vote when unable to vote for their first choice. Again, a tighter race than would have have been the case with the NDP candidate running but Conservatives still take this riding.
15 09 25 SC
Well, Jonasson has now dropped out of the race due to the latest bozo eruption.
Whether that benefits the incumbent or his lone remaining major-party challenger more, who can say?
15 09 25 Marco Ricci
NDP candidate dropped out tonight after controversial remarks comparing a Jewish sect to the Taliban:
I guess the question now is, where does the NDP vote go? Does it go Liberal? Will it be enough to beat the long-term Conservative MP Fletcher here? We'll need to get local numbers & press coverage over the remaining 3 weeks to find out what is going on here.
15 09 25 Jeff S
Jonassen was forced to reign for old comments about Orthodox Jewish treatment of women. But this one would have gone Con anyway.
15 09 25 MPB
One factor being missed out on is that a large part of this riding (Assiniboia) votes for the candidate, not the party - and it's true at both the federal and provincial levels.
To that end Mr Fletcher has this one in the bag. He's liked and respected throughout the riding and the other candidates aren't catching the popular imagination in a way that would suggest an upset.
15 09 25 swingvoter
The NDP candidate, Stefan Jonasson, has withdrawn from the race due to a social media post where he linked a Jewish sect to the Taliban (side note: Yikes!). Given how late is in the campaign to find a replacement candidate, much of the NDP support in this riding will likely switch to the Liberals (not all of course, but the Conservatives are only the second choice of about ~10% of NDPers nationally). This is especially true if NDP supporters are primarily concerned with stopping Harper and rejecting the Conservatives. The only viable, progressive option in this riding is now Liberal with Mr. Jonasson's resignation.
Mr. Jonasson may end up causing more damage to the Conservatives than NDP though anyways as he was unlikely to win, and now there will be less of a Liberal-NDP vote split. I have to think with a mostly consolidated left-wing vote, combined with the Liberals polling well in Winnipeg (although that's mostly urban Winnipeg), you have to like their chances. Still wouldn't count out the Conservatives entirely though.
Link: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/federal-election/ndp-candidate-quits-over-social-media-posts-linking-jewish-sect-to-the-taliban-329356841.html
15 09 26 A.S.
Now, another twist in the 'could Steven Fletcher actually be endangered?' discussion: a bounced loose-lipped Dipper opening the door to a strategic-voting-advocate's 'unite-the-left-under-the-Liberals' fantasy come true. (Though it didn't work on behalf of the NDP in Kildonan-St Paul in 2011. Still, that was Harper-majority/Selinger-unpopularity 2011, so it was a skewed situation.)
15 09 25 Monkey Cheese
The NDP are delusional if they think they can win here, especially after their candidate resigned after questionable social media posts resurfaced (seriously, how many candidates from all parties have resigned now?). That means that the NDP won't be in contention here and they will need to find a credible candidate for the deadline closed. The NDP vote will have to go somewhere and that sure as hell won't be the Conservatives. They will either sit at home or support the Liberals, giving an edge. However, my money is on Fletcher winning this one in a squeaker. He is still one of the best the Conservatives have to offer and is admirable for going against the party line to advocate for assisted suicide. The Conservatives would have to collapse in the polls in order for him to lose, so never say never.
15 09 20 Floyd
Mr. Fletcher has won four elections in a row in this riding, each time with a higher share of the vote (2004 - 44.3%, 2006 - 47%, 2008 - 53.8%, 2011 - 57.6%, source Elections Canada). This riding did not change boundaries, eliminating the factor of changing voting patterns due to redistribution (source www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca). Federal polls put the Conservatives 11 points ahead of the NDP and 12.5 ahead of the Liberals in this region (source CBC poll tracker). The provincial NDP government polls 29% to the PCs at 46% and the Liberals at 19% (source Probe Research). I recognize that provincial and federal voting do not strictly transfer over, but the current gov't in Manitoba is very unpopular and I submit this is a factor. Finally, Mr. Fletcher himself is very popular, has served in cabinet without controversy, and has faced no scandals in his years as a MP. For this particular riding, with the above factors in play, this is a win for the Conservatives.
15 09 19 CharlesWOOD
The signs in Charleswood don't suggest a Conservative victory. Yes, there are more Conservative signs than any others, but there are far fewer signs than in past elections. Many people who displayed Conservative signs in past elections don't have a sign today.
I think that we aren't seeing a lot of NDP or Liberal signs because those who want Harper to be defeated are wary of Liberal-NDP vote-splitting.
There are many Mulcair supporters who haven't yet decided whether to vote Mulcair or to vote Liberal.
15 09 14 Charles
I don't know if the Liberals will get a plurality of seats in the general election but I do think that Manitoba (Aside from the maritime provinces) will be one of their best performing areas.
Manitoba is upset at incumbents these days - that means the federal Conservatives and the provincial NDP.
What is left but to vote liberal?
Charleswood will go liberal.
15 09 15 Ian
I'm no genius... and not a real huge fan of politics, but I've tried to educate myself on the issues, popular opinion and platforms. In doing so came across this site.
I live in this riding. All predictions in this riding considered... just driving around - there are a ton more Fletcher signs than anyone else. Especially the Liberal candidate. I'd say it has to be at least 7 to 1. Just throwing that in the mix. Not too scientific but it has to mean something.
15 09 15
This is a landslide. Just look at the yard signs throughout the riding. They are 90% Fletcher. This is not close.
15 09 11 Rob B
I'm shocked that anyone is giving the Liberals any real shot here. Fletcher is a competent MP from a Conservative leaning riding, and unlike most other Tory candidates. Add to the fact that the Anti-Harper sentiment isn't as strong with this candidate given he marches to the beat of his own drummer on social issues such as assisted suicide, and I see a pretty easy win for Fletcher
15 09 10 Tony Ducey
I like Fletcher as well, he's a good advocate and inspiration for people with disabilities. That said I think the way things are now, we're going to see the Liberals win here.
15 09 09 Norm
This should be a easy win for the Conservatives. They are winning the sign war particularly in Charleswood 5 to 1. Steven Fletcher jumped out to early start with a early opening of a campaign office and putting up signs on the August long weekend. The NDP have a credible candidate in Stefan Jonasson who ran in the civic election in St James. This will give him some voter recognition and votes in the old part of St. James, were the Liberals need a good turnout. He was seen campaigning in the Courts of St James with MLA Jim Rondeau. Landside Jim knows how to get votes in close race. He won by 4 votes his first time.
Rondeau is well liked in the north west part of the riding and could very easily win seat back in the next provincial election if he were not retiring.
This riding does not have a long history of voting Liberal. Since World War II, it has only had one Liberal MP, that was John Harvard who was elected in 1988.
Have you seen the CSJAH Liberal candidates picture? He looks similar to the leader of the Rhinoceros Party leader Sebastien Corriveau. Compare pictures of them side by side and you will see the resemblance. They look like twin brothers.
15 09 09 Expat
I was one of the people that scoffed when this riding was previously moved from Conservative to TCTC, and it was quickly changed back with several others saying the same.
At the time that was the right call, but now I concede that this probably is TCTC with the way polls have moved dramatically since.
15 09 08 Brian Lonsdale
This is another riding that should be 'too close to call.'
While Fletcher is a good MP (one of the few the Conservatives have), the Liberals have made gains in Manitoba and will pick up seats and this just might be one of them. But the conservatives are tanking and this riding is no longer a sure bet.
Both projection models for 308 and 'tooclosetocall.ca' show the Liberals having the advantage here.
15 09 09 Expat
I was one of the people that scoffed when this riding was previously moved from Conservative to TCTC, and it was quickly changed back with several others saying the same.
At the time that was the right call, but now I concede that this probably is TCTC with the way polls have moved dramatically since.
15 09 06 Monkey Cheese
As much I would like to click this for Stephen Fletcher (he does good work advocating for assisted suicide and is one of the best the Conservatives have the offer), the Liberals have been surging in Manitoba lately. As of September 6, the Liberals have a 61% chance of taking this riding according to 308. The Liberals have a decent candidate and if they can keep this momentum going, this might be one of the surprises of the election. The Conservatives still have the advantage due to a strong and popular incumbent, but perhaps this might be moved to TCTC until a specific riding poll gives us a clearer picture. If the Conservatives fall to second or third place and Fletcher still wins, don't put it past him to cross the floor on October 20th.
15 09 05 Teddy Boragina
I've seen polls putting the Liberals at 40% in Manitoba. While I have my doubts, if the Liberals are actually doing well in Manitoba, this is the sort of riding that would go Liberal.
15 08 23 TIger T
Fletcher will win this riding relatively handily.
I smile with amusement regarding the last post. By virtue of my work, I have become good friends with politicians, some of whom are prominent, in every mainstream political party. Buddy - they are essentially all the same. It would make your head spin to hear some of the things politicians from every party say behind the scenes. Hate to disillusion you but most candidates in every party are basically interchangeable except for the thin coat of red or orange or blue or green paint.
No - it wasn't a surprise when it has revealed that Tom Mulcair was a signature and agreement over salary away from being a Conservative strategist.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Fletcher is one of the few Conservatives worthy of respect and I've wondered why he never crossed the floor. It's obvious his views on issues such as assisted suicide don't sit well with his peers and bosses. I'm also surprised that the Liberals are competitive in this riding. The Conservatives are only a few points ahead of the Liberals here according to Threehundredeight. If Fletcher wasn't the MP I suspect that number would be lower. TCTC is the right call.
15 08 04 Mr. G
I think this will be closer than the last election but still fairly safe win for Fletcher. Fletcher is clean and I think people in the riding genuinely respect him. It would be interesting to see Fletcher debate the Lib candidate - it would be a battle between two intellectual heavyweights. Even there, I just can't see Fletcher losing such a debate.
15 07 16 Mc
I have to agree with the posts that were up today. This will be a strong Conservative seat. In fact, Fletcher will win by a landslide. Driving down Portage Avenue I saw at least two billboards. I'm a university student at the Asper School, I notice that Fletcher is a Professional Engineer and has his MBA. He is on the distinguished MBA Alumni website and frequently see him in textbooks from Grade 9 from the standard Social Studies text plus texts used in Red River College and University of Manitoba. He's funny, involved, visible, and a nice person. I live in the next riding Winnipeg South and the Tories will win that one too.
15 07 16 R.O.
Is Steven Fletcher running again ? if he is I'd have a hard time understanding why it was moved to too close to call ? he got over 50 % of the vote last time and even if his vote goes down and liberal vote goes up they'd still be a long way back . Steven Fletcher is one of those mp's everyone likes and be very difficult for me to envision a scenario where he loses the riding he has held since 2004 .
15 07 15 JS
This riding is definitely going to be Conservative! Fletcher had almost 60% the next closest were the NDP 40% behind. Fletcher has been a good MP, he's highly visible in the community, he has been a Minister, according to the PMO website Fletcher is a member of the Cabinet Committee Treasury Board for almost 8 years. He has created a National Cancer Strategy, fought to get rid of trans fats, brought oodles of money to Manitoba for infrastructure. The NDP may come in second again, but at least 40 points behind. Easy Conservative win and the Conservatives will win all the seats they have now with the possible exception of Saint Boniface. Please check out my posts on other races.
15 07 15 Jon
How can you make this riding a toss-up ? Boundaries are unchanged. Fletcher got 57% of vote last time. Who can gain 10,000 votes against someone as personally popular as Steven ?
He already has a bunch of new billboards up in the riding and is knocking on doors.
If he loses it is a Kim Campbell style defeat for the Conservatives.
15 04 02 JC
The Liberals have nominated Emergency Room Doctor Doug Eyolfson, I think he is going to give Fletcher a strong run for his money, although I will say Fletcher made a brave stand in supporting assisted suicide, Eyolfson is also a hero himself, he saved a man's life while on a bus and while maybe a little less extraodinary he does have a very good bio and a very good profile.
15 03 30 JC
I would not say a slight advantage for the Tories this riding right now has the liberals at a 50% chance of winning it but because of Fletcher's incumbency he probably has the lead right now, especially with no liberal candidate in the riding yet.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Mr. Fletcher is certainly one of the more capable, hardworking and respectable Conservative MPs. It's quite unfortunate that he was dumped from cabinet by Harper. While I think Mr. Fletcher will likely keep his seat on his merit, the Liberals are currently polling well In Winnipeg and will likely give him a run for his money. Expect a much closer race than in the past.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
In March 2014, Fletcher introduced a private member's bill to make physician-assisted death legal under Canadian laws. When the Supreme Court struck down the law prohibiting assisted suicide in February 2015, Fletcher spoke out in support of the court's ruling. This is an unusual position for a Conservative.
Fletcher is a quadriplegic who gets far more done in a day than almost all of his Conservative colleagues do in a month. Or, for Rob Anders, a year.
One of only about a half-dozen merit holds that the Conservatives deserve.

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