Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia

Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:20:00

Constituency Profile


Clement, Rob

Enns, Denali

Fletcher, Steven

Paulley, Tom

Hon. Steven Fletcher

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • charleswood-st-james-assiniboia (155/155 Polls)
  • winnipeg-centre (18/149 Polls)
  • winnipeg-south-centre (6/176 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 25 Meredith
    It's looking good for the Conservatives once again in St. James. Blue signs everywhere. Steven is well liked in the riding and should have no problem this time. Let's hope the Conservatives do well elsewhere so we can finally have a majority and get on with things!
    11 04 05 Susan
    Fletcher should get this one. He's done a good job of being visible in the riding. I see him all the time in Charleswood. He spends a lot of time talking with people in the neighbourhood and I like that. Hope the Conservatives get a majority this time!
    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    The safest Tory riding in Winnipeg. Fletcher probably guaranteed himself immortality in this seat when, in 2004, he narrowly defeated star candidate and mayor Glen Murray (who has since fled to electoral safety in Toronto as an Ontario MPP). The Liberals tried, tried again with PC-to-Liberal turncoat MLA John Loewen in 2006, but Fletcher beat him by 10 points. In 2008, Fletcher was allowed to cruise to victory - and so he did, winning 54% of the vote, with a hefty 33-point margin over the Liberals. Even without Fletcher, the Tories would probably do very well here - this was the only Manitoba riding the Liberals won by vote splitting in 2000.
    11 04 02 Doug
    The day after the election was called I saw at least 100 Fletcher lawn signs on one route. Today I saw my first two Liberal signs. No campaigns are necessary. For the Liberals, it is a waste of money. The Conservatives will be hoping this call spill over to South and South Centre.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    While somewhat more competitive, The Tories won by around 30% last time around and that seems like a lot to overcome in one election. The real question is while the Liberals close to gap with the Tories or will they win by another landslide.
    11 03 28 Jim
    This is my riding and as much as I can't stand the Conservatives, I hate to say this will be an easy win for Fletcher. I expect him to spend more time in Winnipeg South trying to help them hold their seat there.
    11 03 26 Political Junkie
    Agree - very comfortable win for Fletcher. He is a known candidate now. His toughest battle was his first against Murray.
    11 03 22 Brian
    The Liberal candidate is the weakest they've put up against Fletcher - and this area has become more solidly small c conservative - easy win for Fletcher
    09 08 27 NorthernRaven
    Minister of State for Democratic Reform Stephen Fletcher will win this again, winning around 50% of the vote and far ahead of the Liberals in both previous elections. Especially where the Liberals dropped to 21% (8000) of the vote verses his 21,500 vote win.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    Conservative MP Steven Fletcher will win re-election here no problem. He won a tight election against the popular Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray in 2004, and has had comfortable re-elections in 2006 and 2008.
    As Steven Fletcher famously stated in a radio interview during the 2004 election, the people of Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia would rather have a Conservative MP with no body then a Liberal MP with no head.

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