Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:10 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:13 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Beatriz Alas
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Andrew Basham
Peter Carney
Steven Fletcher
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Glen Murray
Parti Marijuana Party:
Dan Zupansky

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Charleswood St. James-Assiniboia (90.4%)
Hon. John Harvard
Winnipeg Centre (8.1%)
Pat Martin
Winnipeg South Centre (1.5%)
Anita Neville

2000 Result/Résultats:
14,852 35.93%
12,069 29.20%
10,535 25.49%
3,677 8.90%
204 0.49%

Charleswood St. James-Assiniboia
(155/155 polls, 56972/56972 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Winnipeg Centre
(18/149 polls, 5088/52129 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Winnipeg South Centre
(6/176 polls, 969/60101 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
So this now has been called a Liberal win? From what I hear, this riding is going to elect Fletcher and not Murray. The break of signs on private property shows Fletcher will take the riding, and not Murray, also watching CPAC you notice Murray will get two people who dislike what he did as mayor for every one person who said he did a good job. Steven Fletcher will make a great MP come June 28.
24/06/04 Brian F
Email: [hidden]
Well, poll results in today's free press confirms that signs don't vote: the Liberals have mantained their support in Winnipeg from 2000 (38% versus 29 each for NDP and CPC). I think that'll be enough for the Liberals to hold here.
23/06/04 Jon C.
Email: [hidden]
Why are you predicting liberal when everyone says Conservative. I live in Ontario now but grew up in Charleswood, a recent visit shows Fletcher signs 2 to 1 to Murrayy confersations with friends came out same way.
I cannot believe that the riding who elected Dan MacKenzie would vote For Glenn Murray. My mom and brother worked for Dan and he was as right wing as they come.
Can the riding go so far left?
Not what I hear!
23/06/04 Greg
Email: [hidden]
Interesting numbers from the Liberal supporter, of course, one doesn't expect accurate numbers (be it polls or budgets) from the Liberals. I've seen polling done which puts the Conservatives well in the lead in this riding. The debate today was clearly won by Steven Fletcher, Murray told lie after lie to try to get out of there.
23/06/04 Stuart
Email: [hidden]
Murray's record as a grassroots health care worker resonates well with the large number of seniors in St. James. Harper's consistent record of opposing the Canada Pension Plan (he left the Mulroney Tories when they backed down from plans to scrap the CPP) is doing more damage in ridings like this. Fletcher has aligned himself too closely with Stephen Harper and the right wing of former Alliance members (Fletcher had the Alliance nomination before the parties merged).
21/06/04 Neil
Email: [hidden]
Anyone who has been driving around in this riding will notice this riding painted in a sea of Tory Blue !
Glen Murray is not popular here at all. The national trend of weak numbers of the Liberals ensures his defeat.
20/06/04 Brian F
Email: [hidden]
Interesting sign breakdown (more or less true) but polling within the riding suggests a 4 point lead for Murray.
20/06/04 Doug
Email: [hidden]
I did a lunch hour drive around the St. James-Assiniboia side of the riding (i.e. the whole area north of the river). This is the Liberals' "strong" side. The lawn side war stands as follows (I did not count a lawn side unless it was on somebody's personal property):
Conservative 96 (60%)
Liberal 53 (33%)
N.D.P. 11 (7%)
The Charleswood and Headingley areas (i.e. the area south of the river) is the Conservatives' strong side.
12/06/04 Doug
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives will win this riding. Fletcher was in the provicnial PC and federal Alliance parties. He will be able to amalgamate that vote.
For every vote Murray can add by "name recognition" he will lose another who voted Liberal last time.
Drive around and check the lawn signs. I would say it breaks down like this:
Charleswood: 80% Fletcher; 20% Murray
Woodhaven: 75% Fletcher; 25% Murray
East St. James: 50% Fletcher; 25% Murray; 25% NDP
Assiniboia: 60% Fletcher; 25% Murray; 15% NDP
11/06/04 Monte
Email: [hidden]
Several neighbors and I were all out puttering around our yards over the last few weeks, and the usual topics came up, Weather, and politics.
Most of us are not really tied to any party. We vote for who we see as the best candidate. There are no signs for any parties on our street, and it's is pretty quiet. We all agree that Glen Murray is a bad choice for Charleswood/St James/Headingley. It would be an embarrassment to us to elect a candidate who has a track record of despising us. His track record includes Moray Bridge, urban sprawl, Kenaston overpass. He and his entire staff cannot even collectively spell Headingley. He sees the mostly middle class residents of Charleswood/St James/Headingley as a revenue source, and not good for much else. We are expected to pay our taxes, and shut up.
Several of us on the street see him as a Quitter. He promised, before running for mayor again, that he would not quit half way thru his term as mayor.
If elected, I think that he would be a strong champion for the "fringe element" and find had earned tax dollars for these groups. This would be entirely in keeping with his track record.
I think that the voters are going to give good ole Glen a spanking at the election. There was a discussion about tarring and feathering the former mayor if he ever did show up to campaign down our street.
06/06/04 G Kennedy
Email: [hidden]
This riding is historically a conservative riding both federally and provincially. The PC/Alliance polled 1,000 more than the Liberals in 1997 and 6,000 more in 2000. It's no wonder John Harvard stepped aside to become Manitoba L-G following the PC merger. I'm a former Winnipeger and now live in Toronto. Murray is loved by the Toronto media and by Martin's team for promoting his new deal for cities. I'm not so sure the same is true of Winnipegers, let alone residents of Charleswood-Assiniboia. He's a left of centre guy running in a conservative riding at a time when the Liberal campaign is failing. Fletcher seems to be a talented guy of remarkable personal accomplishment. The Conservatives will take this riding based on today's poll numbers and trends, and it won't even be close.
03/06/04 Brian F
Email: [hidden]
It should be mentioned here that Stephen Harper's attempt to slam Murray over the Riel Pedistrian bridge and perceived overspending has largely backfired...it was seen, rightly or wrongly, as an attack on the city of Winnipeg itself.
02/06/04 St.James Resident
Email: [hidden]
This is going to be a close one, however not as close as some think. The Liberals have a candidate who will be seen by some as being able to bring government projects to Winnipeg (provided the Liberals win a majority). He will also receive some sympathy vote from the incident that happened, wherein vulgar words regarding his sexual orientation were written on his campaign headquarters. His sexual orientation will also attract some vote.
On the other hand, this riding is not overly supportive of their former Mayor. There is a deep feeling that, while Mayor, Mr. Murray neglected this end. That is sure to play into the equation. Also, the fact that he was a member of the NDP may push some of the more right-wing liberals away. Further to this, there is a feeling that he is ditching his responsibility to the city in leaving mid-term to run federally. The growing dislike of the federal Liberal Party only ads to this lack of support.
Mr. Fletcher, like Mr. Murray, has strong ties to the city. He was not only elected as UMSU president, however was re-elected. His "constituents" at the University were pleased enough with his work to bring him back for a second term. He has been a member of both the PC and the Alliance parties, which should help to limit the bad feelings harboured by some former PC members over the merger. Add onto this, the inevitable sympathy vote over his physical disability, and he makes for an attractive candidate.
This electoral division contains a fair number of upscale houses, as well as many military members. These groups will be far more likely to support the conservative platform (with recently-announced increases to military spending and preparation, as well as lower business taxes, removal of the air security tax, and lower capital gains taxes), then the Liberal platform.
Driving around the streets of this division, outward support for the Conservatives seems much greater. Conservative signs outnumber Liberal signs by a large margin (I hesitate to guess at how large). People on the streets mock the "Team Martin" posters as being arrogent - they feel that Mr. Martin is trying to put himself before the party. Long-time Liberal voters are starting to have second and third thoughts about their best course of action, and more and more of them are turning to the Conservative party as the national panacea.
02/06/04 HAS
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives will take this seat with ease. One only has to look at the results of the 2000 election. I was once a resident in this area and do have some knowledge. Take a look at the airbase situated there. These guys will not be voting Liberal or NDP.
02/06/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Sorry, but star candidates don't always win. In a riding where the Libs, CA and PCs ended in a 3-way race, Glen is clearly disadvantaged here. Right candidate. Wrong riding. Wrong political party.
25/05/04 Reid
Email: [hidden]
This is the only riding in Winnipeg where the Conservatives have a chance because the Charleswood area usually leans Conservative in the provincial election. But now that Glen Murray is in the race I think he is the favorite to take this, he is not as unpopular in Winnipeg as the right-wing portrays him to be.
25/05/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
I think Glem Murray will live to regret that he gave into the 4 year courtship that the Liberal Party had with him. Murray is no doubt a star candiadate, and he may help the Liberals in Manitoba in other ridings, but Charleswood St. James is just not going to be the right fit for him, espically the polls in Headingly and the working class areas of St. James, where his repuatation will be more harmful than helpful.
The Liberals will be pouring everything thay have into the riding to help Mr. Murray, but some tension between his campaign team made up of former Allan Rock supporters and die hard Chretien supporters may develop with the Martin people that regional minister Reg Alcock has running the provincial campaign.
Other factors that will hurt Murray include the fact the Mayoral election to replace him will be held just days before the federal election and Steven Fletcher is already reminding voters that they are paying several million dollars in tax money just so Glen Murray could parachite himself out of his city hall job and into Charleswood. Add the sponsorship scandel, gun control, and other so called Liberal misdeeds and it will prove to be too much for Mr. Murray to overcome a united tory vote in this riding.
25/05/04 Brian Arseny
Email: hebar2001@yahoo.ca
Let's face it - this is not a Liberal riding. Charleswood, Tuxedo, these are not areas that will support the left-leaning Glenn Murray. Speaking with my neighbours and friends who live in the area (as I do), what I'm seeing is a fair bit of hostility towards Murray - "Parachuted in", "Anti-west-end" (a bit of a shot at Murrays voting record vis a vis the Moray Street Bridge and the Kenaston Underpass), and a lot of outright displeasure with the Liberal party in general. Frankly, I can't say I disagree.
25/05/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives have made a huge mistake here. This seat was ripe for a big Conservative win. The numbers from the last election scream "Conservative Victory".
However, they inexplicably chose to nominate a very bad candidate. Fletcher is a complete dud. By default, many people will now hold their noses and vote for Murray, which, I can tell you, is also not a very popular choice in the riding. But there is no denying that Murray is a strong politician who will give the riding strong representation, unlike Fletcher. On that basis alone, I think the Liberals will pull off the upset and hang on to the riding.
25/05/04 ER
Email: [hidden]
Likely a very close riding between CPC and Liberals but if Harper runs a good campaign the Conservative should win. Liberals have won this riding in the past because Harvard was a strong candidate and the right wing vote was split. Although Murray will be a good candidate, he has a lot of baggage from being the Mayor. Fletcher is not anywhere as capable as Murray but he has no enemies.
25/05/04 Susie
Email: [hidden]
Murray was a dipper in the 80's but he was a Young Liberal in Quebec - at a time when Liberals were hard to come by there.
The Libs are happy with the opportunity to have Murray run in Charleswood, and given Fletcher's obnoxious daily personal attacks against Murray and his recent scene at a Veterans event this weekend, this seat is staying Liberal.
Fletcher himself is the Liberals best weapon in Charleswood - St. James.
23/05/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
Glen Murray makes this riding more of a toss up, but in the end I stand by my prediction that it will go Conservative.
The former PC's are not flocking Liberal, most are staying on board with the Conservatives. Fletcher is not the strongest candidate being handicapped, but that will bring a few voters onboard as well as the idea of electing the first handicapped MP will tug on the heart strings of even a few soft Libs and soft NDPers.
Murray was not a suburb mayor, he was an inner city and downtown mayor. That's going to factor into play here. He needs it to look like the Liberals will form a majority in order to play the "guarentee a Lib cabinet minister" card, which would work in that situation.
23/05/04 Gordon
Email: [hidden]
Steven Fletcher will win Charleswood St. James.
Here are my top reasons why Steven Fletcher will win:
1. The vote tally from the last election.
2. Joe Clark and Stockwell Day are gone.
3. Paul Martin helped create the healthcare crisis.
4. Scandal after scandal.
5. Steven is untouchable on healthcare (Canada's undisputed #1 issue).
6. Glen Murray's record is anti-west-Winnipeg. (voted against the Moray Street Bridge and Kenaston underpass).
19/05/04 annoying factchecker
Email: [hidden]
Correction to previous comments: Glen Murray was a card-carrying member of the New Democratic Party in the 1980s.
16/05/04 Ghoris
See my original submission (third from the bottom) as to why this seat will probably remain Liberal despite the fact that it looks, on paper, like a probable Tory steal. Now that Martin has finally wooed Glen Murray to the federal stage as a 'star candidate', look for the Liberals to dump boatloads of money and resources into this riding, sealing the deal. Liberal hold.
13/05/04 Brian F
Email: [hidden]
Good points generally on why it'll be a close election but clarification is needed. Manitoba has 2 cabinet ministers now with Alcock and Paktikan so I'm not sure why MB wouldn't get two again after the next election. Yes, Fletcher was PC Party President in Manitoba but he angered many when he went to the Alliance before the merger; that didn't sit well with Tory MLAs who supported the PC Party federally and will mean he'll have difficulty getting PC supporters to back him in this riding.
Also, today we've gotten word that the new Public Health Agency (CDC North) is coming to Winnipeg. This will likely help all Liberal candidates in Winnipeg.
11/05/04 SellerstheMammoth
Email: [hidden]
Whoa...it's a bit premature to give this riding over to Glen Murray just yet:
There's a few reasons why this riding is still advantage Fletcher:
1. Today, the taxpayers of Winnipeg just got stuck with anywhere from $1.0-1.5 bill for a mayoralty by-election on June 22 - six days before the expected federal election date of June 28. That's so that one person's ego could take the shot at federal politics.
2. Riding on point one, much of Glen's organziation he trusts will be split on working with city councillor Dan Vandal's quest to become Mayor.
3. According to local radio station CJOB, many Liberals bombarded the riding association phone last Thursday and indicated their displeasure.
4. There will be negative fallout due to the blatant patronage appointment of John Harvard to the Lieutenant-Governer's position in Manitoba.
4. Glen Murray can't take shots at Steven Fletcher, or else the entire disabled community will go ballistic; however, Murray does have a record that is wide open for criticism. In the last mayoral election, 2nd place came to former city councillor Al Golden (who isn't exactly liked in Winnipeg) - yet he gained 38% of the vote and threw his name into the ring six weeks before the election. This shocked Glen, who thought he was headed for 60% plus.
5. Headlingly residents will remember Glen slamming their community when it chose to separate from Winnipeg; Charleswood has never liked Glenn; 17 Wing in St. James (part of the Armed Forces), may say enough is enough when it comes to lack of military funding.
6. The one good reason for the riding to vote Glen in - having Glen in cabinet means that Reg Alcock is turfed as you can't have two guys from Manitoba, in senior cabinet positions with huge egos.
7. Everyone knows that this riding was not Glen's first choice - he wanted Anita Nevillie's in Winnipeg South Centre, as this is where he was first elected to city council.
11/05/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
I think it is completely wrong to be calling this for the Liberals so soon!! In response to the post below-- Fletcher was the President of the PC party of Manitoba federally at one point, so he does have more ties to the PCers to the Alliance, I believe. On top of this, the results form last time indicate that Liberal support is weak. The United Right could have potentially gotten over 55% in the last election, only 35% going to the Liberals. True the Liberals have a good candidate, but the fact he was handpicked could also pose some problems (along with the fact that he is really an NDPer). Sorry for this little Rant- but I truly believe that this is potentially a strong Conservative pickup. Another thing to consider is that both of these candidates are minorities. Liberal's candidate is homosexual and the Conservative's have a disability. Do these attributes make voters feel more sympathetic or appealing to their cause? -something to consider
10/05/04 Brian F
Email: [hidden]
This will be a tight race but Murray will prevail. Fletcher is a little too Alliance (he was the Alliance candidate for this riding before the 2 parties merged) to take the PCs vote; word is the CPCs wanted a more high profile candidate like Eric Stephanson to run (former prov PC Finance Minister). The idea of electing a likely cabinet minister who may positively impact the cities' agenda will likely sway enough voters.
10/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Just a point of information. Glen Murray was never an NDP member in the first place. Many people assumed he was an NDP sympathizer because of his progressive views, but he was never elected to anything under an NDP banner so his running as a Liberal does not represent a switch.
07/05/04 Mull Mole
Email: [hidden]
Martin scooped up not only an NDPer but an openly gay gentleman in Glen Murray. Crossing the floor or crossing parties particularly before an election is a gamble as it can be interpreted either as creative manipulation or lack of backbone.
While the Martin-Pettigrew team sell "saving Medicare" by hypocritically bleeding it, proclain "fairness" while bleeding from Manitoba's favourite (NDP) after pulling the Sponsorship scandal...me thinks a "protest" vote could very well be in the works. NDP candidate Peter Carney just might land this one by standing tall.
07/05/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
Well the Liberals have a star candidate, but that won't really change matters here. The whole field from NDP to Conservative are well-known people and the fact that Harvard didn't run again may indicate that eh really didn't believe he could win. (Or, he really wanted that Lieutenent-Governor Job) Nonetheless, the Liberals would have to snatch 40% of the PC vote from last time to win, and I really don't think it will happen, especially because Murray once was a member of the NDPers. On top of this, alot of Liberal votes will go to the NDP, for they apparently have a well liekd candidate. All in all, this seems destined to be a Conservative pickup. Fletcher coming from the PC wing of the Conservative Party only makes those voters who voted PC last time more willing to vote Conservative now.
07/05/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
So it looks like Glen Murray is in - but his worship shouldn't expect a coronation. The combined Alliance/PC vote is formidable, and provincially this end of the city has been the most reliable slice of Winnipeg for the Conservatives. Murray's municipal support here has been weaker than it is in the rest of the city, and while his profile, combined with the resources that the Liberals are going to put here, should make this an interesting race, possibly even fairly close, but at the end of the day, I think Fletcher will win. The smelly shuffle of John Harvard into the L-G's office to make room for Murray, and the cost of the ensuing by-elections are going to be issues, both to Murray's detriment.
Murray is going to take this without a doubt. Those who say that the combined Alliance and Conservative vote in that last election will knock out Liberal candidates fail to realize that this hasn’t been displayed in any polls nationally (since the merger). He’ll be a strong voice in Ottawa and the people of Winnipeg have seen this through his work as mayor.
06/05/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
The latest word is that John Harvard's set to retire, and that Glen Murray is running to take his place (for the Liberals, I hasten to add). If true, Liberal hold.
06/05/04 Jacob
I do not particularly like Glen Murray, but I got to say that he is one of the smartest political minds Winnipeg has seen in quite a while. His political acumen is sharp as they come and he is ambitious as hell. The more I think about it, the more I don't think he would run unless he had some pretty good indications that he could win, ie polls or focus groups or something like that. Definitely leans Liberal!
26/04/04 anonymous
Email: [hidden]
I worked with Fletcher at the U of M. He has a lot to commend him, not least of which is his incredible tenacity after a dreadful personal tragedy. However he is not only a devout atheist but is outright hostile to religion. Religious conservatives are a much bigger part of the support base for the CPC than most people realise, and since it looks as if Murray will run for the Liberals, I predict that Murray will win. Moderate conservatives may be persuaded by Murray's fiscal approach to vote for him, and social conservatives, forced to choose between the Liberals and a man who is anti-religious, will stay home. A lot of religious people, including me, will not vote for someone contemptful towards us.
26/03/04 Mr.Manitoba
Email: [hidden]
Although this has been a Liberal seat for some time, this will probably be another seat to keep your eye on during the election. Stephen has a strong team working in Charleswood and it is rumoured that Harvard will not be running (this is one of the frozen nominations in winnipeg), the spin that has been turning is that Harvard may be the next LG for MB. If the mayor chooses to run it would be foolish anywhere in the city not to mention that this area was strongly opposed to the new deal and Murray took a blow from the public. I think Stephen has the ability to reel in the PC vote from 2000 and tip the scales in favour of the conservatives.
24/03/04 MD
Email: [hidden]
Harvard would defiantly fare better in this are then the Mayor would/will. I am not sure if the Mayor could win in any area of the city, he only won re-election because of the lack of time that Golden had. If the liberals want a chance at holding on to this peace of Winnipeg they should let Harvard take one more crack at it, but even that is not a sure thing.
24/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Harvard is one of the few MPs that we recall being out spoken against certain Liberal policies, whcih makes him an appealing candidate. The problem is he's in probably Manitoba's only case of a riding going Liberal due to vote splitting. A united right is going to hurt him as will votes being bleed by an NDP resurgance and the Liberal scandals. The Conservative's candidate being disabled could work both ways. He may win sympathy votes but could also lose votes to people unsure he's up to the job. Kudos for him running!
23/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
The Winnipeg Free Press today reported that Mayor Glen Murray might run here for the Grits... I am unsure how that would play out. I would think that Harvard would have won the riding for sure because he can appeal to those who voted PC last time around. I am not so sure if the same can be said about his worship.
20/03/04 MD
Email: [hidden]
Harvard is a likable man and his recent appointment as a Secretary of State will not hurt him. However the Canadian Alliance came close last time and yes, the PC vote may be split this time but people are mad as hell about the sponsorship scandal and some of his former voters may switch this time around or stay home. The people know that they have been used by the Liberal government and Harvard may be the one in Winnipeg to pay the price for that.
20/03/04 Libertarian Conservative
Email: [hidden]
Steven Fletcher, who was nominated as the Alliance Candidate before the merger, is the former president of the provincial Progressive Conservative Party which will likely draw provincial and former federal tories on election day. This was a classic split-vote riding in 2000 which is no longer a factor. Also, while I hate to mention it, his being a quadriplegic should get him an extra 10-20% of the vote just for sympathy.
20/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding is in a historically conservative area, and it will be a conservative area this election.
19/03/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
Fletcher is not as strong a candidate as the CPC might have liked for what should be a safe seat for them. Whether people wish to accept it or not, there's going to be many voters that will have difficulty electing a handicapped candidate, least of all, a quadriplegic. That being said, the PC and CA candidate had nearly 2 to 1 support in the last election over John Harvard, and while this riding has a group of ex-PCs that will go liberal, I believe just as many Liberals will swing either CPC or NDP in anger towards the governing party. It's early, but I'm thinking the CPC win this seat. If not I think that will say much more about voters choosing a disabled candidate than it will about the parties.
18/03/04 Jason Colpitts
Email: jbcolpitts@shaw.ca
Vote splitting in the last election gave this seat to the
Liberals; look for this seat to go Conservative, with
some Liberal support bleeding to the NDP.
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
Although this riding looks like easy pickings for the Conservatives based on the results last time around, I think the results of the recent provincial election indicate the bloom is off the right-wing rose in Winnipeg.
The PC candidate last time around was a popular local TV personality (Curtis Moore) who ran as a Red Tory and pulled a LOT of votes away from John Harvard while the Alliance vote remained relatively stable over 1997. I suspect that most of those votes will go back to the Liberals rather than to the Conservatives.
This is still the Conservatives' best chance for a pickup in Winnipeg, but I'm predicting Liberals to hang on in a squeaker.
15/03/04 Me
Email: [hidden]
This riding is finally delivered from the Liberals hands.
Vote splitting was never more obvious than in this riding. A very easy win for the CPC.
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
Looking at the results from 2000, one would think that this seat should fall to the Conservatives. However, Conservative support in Manitoba is slightly below the level of support enjoyed by the Alliance alone in 2000. This means that most of that PC vote will go Liberal, not Conservative. Even with a likely stripping of some Liberal votes to the NDP (not too many though, since this is a rather affluent riding), the Liberals will still secure victory.

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