Prediction Changed
3:46 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Fletcher, Steven
Friesen, Bob
Christian Heritage
Price, Mark
New Democratic
Shiells, Fiona
Timlick, Brian

Steven Fletcher

2006 Result:
Steven Fletcher **
John Loewen
Dennis Kshyk
Mike Johannson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 23 Matt
The fact that Steven Fletcher has beaten both Glen Murray and John Loewen probably makes this a safe Conservative seat.
08 09 14 III
This is so easily a Conservative win. Drive through the riding and you'll see Fletcher signs everywhere and nobody else's. I honestly have yet to see a Liberal or NDP sign in the riding.
I disagree with A.S.'s (unfortunate abbreviation turned possessive, I know) comment about provincial results. That just goes to show how many people have no problem jumping between NDP and Conservative without a Liberal pitstop.
08 06 02
Though Fletcher doesn't seem to be as prominent as he was in opposition, he seems to have developed a decent profile in the riding. Barring a Tory meltdown, he'll keep the seat.
07 07 26
The Liberals have thrown two star candidates at Fletcher. Former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray and Red tory MLA turned LPC member Nick Loewen have been past opponents and have been both soundly defeated. So unless the CPC support dips to 1993 levels Mr.Fletcher is safe here.
07 06 21 binriso
Never underestimate sympathy for a man in a wheelchair. However it is quite obvious that Fletcher is a pretty good parliamentarian and he will probably be re-elected. However this could switch over to the Liberals if there is any sort of shift.
07 06 14 A.S.
Considering how the recent provincial election opened up some significant fissures in Winnipeg's right (most symbolically vivid in the NDP--which might as well serve as a fed Lib proxy here--winning Kirkfield Park), Fletcher might not be as homesafe as he appears--and he did only gain 2 3/4 points over '04, anyway. But if he loses, that'd likely mean the Tories are wiped out in Winnipeg--and think of the symbolism...
07 04 06 M. Lunn
Of the three Conservative ridings in Winnipeg, this is probably the safest one. In addition to what the other contributors stated, I should also add this is the only provincial riding that went predominately Progressive Conservative in the last provincial election despite the fact it was one of their worse showings ever.
07 04 05 Daniel
Fletcher defeated 'star candidate' Glen Murray here in 2004, an election where national Conservative fortunes were rather lukewarm and where Fletcher was relatively unknown. Now that he's established, the Tories are in government, and the Liberals aren't exactly a lightning rod for star candidates these days, I think Fletcher should win rather easily.
07 04 04 Nick J Boragina
The tories did very well in Manitoba last time, and although the polls show they might not win this next election with ease, or even at all, they do show a consistent strong trend towards the conservatives in Manitoba and the west as a whole. Last election this one might have been somewhat close, this election it will be even less so. Fletcher will go back to the commons.

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