| ||15 10 15
|| Marco Ricci|
| The fact that Stephen Harper & The Fords have been holding rallies in Etobicoke this week could mean that the Conservatives are in trouble here and are already losing, or it could mean that it's close enough that they still think they have a shot at holding on.|
| ||15 10 07
|Environics poll (15/10/4) Lib 43%, Con 36%, NDP 16%, Green 4%|
| ||15 09 29
|Polling over the last 2 months has shown a steady rise for the Conservatives in this riding. Most pundits are leaving this as too close to call. If the NDP numbers stay firm around 20% then this riding stays in the Conservative win column. Out of the 9, 416 CP riding wins in 2011, this is the one most likely to return a CP MP.|
| ||15 09 29
|TCTC, at best. Ground campaign is really interesting here. Maloney is closely aligned with the often-disliked local councillor Mark Grimes. Some questionable business about the Liberal nomination has also got some former Liberals questioning their allegiance and options. Misplaced strategy on a recent Liberal flyer has offended. Are Con voters upset with Harper (and there are a few)? Could be an interesting situation for the NDP.|
| ||15 09 29
|Conservative partisan R.O seems to think that the Tories will hold on to all their Toronto/GTA ridings despite the polls saying the contrary. Aside from beating Ignatieff, what else has Bernie done? He's been a weak MP and I think he needed to be more visible if he wanted to hold on to this seat. Both the Conservatives and NDP are down in Ontario this time around and that benefits the Liberals. The Conservatives were elected in a wave in the GTA and they'll be voted out in a wave in the GTA this time around. Unless Harper is headed for majority territory, which no poll has shown since the campaign started, I don't see the Conservatives holding on to this seat. They are, however, more likely to hold on to it than the NDP winning it.|
| ||15 09 25
|A succession of polls have shown the Liberal leading by a healthy amount. Riding should be called for LPC.|
| ||15 09 05
||Recovering political junkie |
|etobicoke lakeshore has gone NDP before, and they almost won in '88. It was a strong competitive NDP riding that only now has recovered from the Bob Rae days. |
So they are gonna target this riding again in a serious way, not since '88.
This is another Liberal NDP steal.
| ||15 09 02
|This riding was the surprise of 2011 when conservative Bernard Trottier won here beating Michael Ignatieff. Etobicoke lakeshore does have a lot of recent liberal history but historically it was one of the more pc friendly area's of Toronto and had a number of tory mp's over the years. It also was conservative provincially recently for a short while when Doug Holyday was mpp until his surprise loss in 2014. James Maloney the liberal candidate for this riding isn't that high profile although he did serve on city council for a short period. Bernard Trottier has advantage of being incumbent and better known then when he first ran in 2011. And not facing as high profile liberal as before either. If conservatives can't hold this riding with so many advantages I'm not sure how else they could win here. |
| ||15 08 28
|| Hilary D.|
| This has become a 3 way race, voters here who used to support the Liberals because the NDP had absolutely no shot will return to the NDP. That, along with the changes this riding has experienced in the last 5 years, makes this TCTC.|
| ||15 08 28
|| Nick M|
| Three way split, with the advantage going to the Liberals and NDP. too close to call until final weeks of the election.|
| ||15 08 25
|Unless something dramatic happens, the Conservatives are going to lose 10-15% of the support they had in Ontario in 2011. That means ridings like this one that they took from the Liberals by a hair will go Liberal this time. Liberals are lined up to gain in Ontario overall, this will be a pick up for them barring major changes in Ontario polls.|
| ||15 08 20
|Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by 5% with the NDP close behind. |
| ||15 08 21
|Mid-August Environs poll in this riding for Leadnow Swing Seat poll has LPC 36%, CPC 31%, NDP 28%, Green 5%. Still close, but...|
| ||15 08 21
|A recent Environics poll has this riding at 30% LPC, 27% CPC, 24% NDP, 4% Green and 14% undecided. In 2011, the result was 40% CPC, 35% LPC, 20% NDP and 4% Green. This had a good sample size for a riding poll, 544. The margin of error is 4.2%|
This will be an interesting riding to watch, it being more affluent than many of the other inner suburb seats in the 416 and more likely to be a CPC hold than many of the others. There are enough undecideds here to put any of the three main parties on top. These undecideds are likely some combination of disaffected CPC voters from 2011 and ABC voters waiting to see which anti-Harper horse has the best chance of winning. It is notable that the LPC had to swap candidates due to their previous one pulling out. Although Maloney is known locally as a past city councillor, these types of developments are never good for local campaigns, especially in close races.
Hard to know what is going to happen here. The national race will likely play a central role to determining the outcome. Will disaffected former CPC supporters go to the LPC, which would be a more natural alternate home to them, or the NDP like a growing number of former CPC voters? How will the LPC commitment to raising personal taxes on upper income voters and the NDP's commitment to not do the same influence that decision-making? Time will tell.
| ||15 08 18
||Monkey shines |
|No opinion in terms of who wins, but wondering if the NDP candidate chosen ( Trotter) was chosen because of last name or because of credentials. Trotter NDP, Trottier Cons. (Incumbent) . Based on the lack of/no credentials from other NDP MP's (from Quebec) I suspect this Trotter was chosen for a reason. For that reason, I am out! |
| ||15 08 18
||George M. |
|Will be a very tight 3 way race. The rise in the NDP could vote split the left. Trottier has been a very strong hard working MP and has surprised many people. If he gets 85% of his vote out, could eke out a win. |
| ||15 08 17
|This electoral district is changing significantly, becoming much more urban. All the new condos by Humber Bay are filled with young people, and people coming over from next door in Parkdale - High Park. Expect the NDP numbers to be way up here, especially with the NDP over 30% in Ontario, which could negatively impact the Liberals. The Liberal candidate was appointed to council, I believe, and is unproven when it comes to being elected.|
| ||15 08 16
|This was one of the fluke Tory seats of 2011. The Liberals are running a former city councillor so the result will be interesting. I am leaning Liberal right now.|
| ||15 06 03
|Liberal candidate Susan Watt has withdrawn as the candidate for Etobicoke-Lakeshore, according to a CBC story:|
It doesn't specify the reason for the withdrawal, but says that it happened about a month ago. The report says that the Liberals may try to recruit former Toronto city councillor James Maloney, who is also the president of the riding association.
| ||15 04 12
|In all fairness, Bernie The Vampire Slayer's main asset is that he's probably the most inoffensive member of Harper's 416 caucus--the enduring moderating aura of Patrick Boyer helps soften the CPC edge in this neck of the woods. In fact, dare I say, he carries something of a 'future cabinet material' aura--albeit maybe in a twilight-of-a-regime context a la the Kim Campbell Tories, the Paul Martin Liberals, etc. At any rate, Etobicoke-Lakeshore's been an odd on-and-off sort of 'Tory stronghold' by Toronto standards--the 'on' including the three recent instances the party scored its highest share in the 416 (Boyer vs the 1993 disaster + John Capobianco in 2004 and 2006--though oddly, not Boyer vs Iggy in 2008), as well as the more recent Doug Holyday provincial byelection win. It involves a fair bit of square-circling, though: everything from the exploding condo forest at Humber Bay to the faded remnants of old-school NDPish demographic in Mimico/New Toronto/Long Branch to leapfrogging gentrification as everything E of the Humber becomes unaffordable. Given the demographic mix'n'morph in question, if CPC seeks to hold this for any significant length of time and prove that 2011 wasn't a fluke, it'd have to choose a 'Patrick Boyer' sort as its next leader (Mike Chong, maybe?)|
| ||15 03 30
|As far as I see it, the only things that Bernard Trottier has going for him are:|
1. Being amongst the myriad of people who endorsed John Tory for mayor.
2. Finally gaining favour with Harper by becoming parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs just last month (as of when I've written this).
All in all, I think it's too little, too late for him. Barring an absolute collapse by either Justin Trudeau nationally or Susan Watt on the ground during the upcoming election, this seat should go back into the red column.
| ||15 03 29
|If Ignatieff had any effect on the 2011 margin, it was negative by the end of that campaign. The Liberals only lost this by 5 when they lost Ontario by 20, so they'll win this when they're tied in Ontario. A lot can change between now and October, but if the Liberals can even remain within 10 in Ontario, Trottier hasn't done enough to beat the spread.|
| ||15 03 29
|Etobicoke Lakeshore will return to the Liberals. |
Ignatieff never connected with his riding and his awful 2011 campaign knocked him out. That should not be misunderstood as this being a Tory riding.
| ||15 03 28
|Had it not been for the Liberal meltdown, Ignatieff probably would have held this and while his name might have helped the Liberals a bit, probably not much. Bernard Trottier hasn't done much to stand out so if Doug Holyday who had far more name recognition couldn't win here, he probably won't. While I doubt the Tories will do as bad as Tim Hudak did in Ontario, this is still a Liberal friendly riding so should stay Liberal.|
| ||15 03 22
|According to his Wikipedia page, Trottier didn't expect to win his seat. Yet another 'accidental' win for the Conservatives in 2011. That being said, he seems to have a reasonable amount of support in the riding. He did benefit from a Rob Ford endorsement, whether that's worth anything these days, I'm not so sure. That being said, I am tentatively calling this for the Liberals. The grits have rebounded in the GTA and especially in Toronto. This riding also dumped the far more popular Doug Holyday in the provincial election (much to my surprise). A lot can change between now and October and both Conservative and Liberal candidates will be hammering hard to win this seat.|
| ||15 03 18
|The circumstances under which Liberals lost this seat in 2011 were, to be blunt, unique. They will not recur. Bernard Trottier was not expected to be elected, has achieved nothing since being elected, and his sole note in Canadian history will be defeating Michael Ignatieff.|
Ignatieff turned down the Prime Minister job in 2009 when he turned down the coalition with Jack Layton. As a result, NDP and Greens who normally hold their noses and vote Liberal, didn't, and that was the end of Michael.
If only the Liberal-Conservative coalition had died that day. But Bill C-51 shows it's still very much alive.
Hard to say what will happen here. Trottier doesn't deserve re-election but Susan Watt, the Liberal challenger, is of no particular profile either.
Maybe this is one of those ridings where something really weird happens.