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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:29 PM 6/26/2004

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8:29 PM 6/26/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Jean Augustine
John Capobianco
Green Party/Parti Vert:
John Huculiak
Margaret Anne McHugh
Janice Murray

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Etobicoke-Lakeshore (100.0%)
Hon. Jean Augustine

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,239 51.79%
9,048 21.07%
8,378 19.51%
2,809 6.54%
465 1.08%

(210/210 polls, 75353/75353 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Etobicoke-Lakeshore has that breezy feel of an election going to the wire but it really isn't as close as it would seem, Conservative John Capobianco only problem is he can't shake that neo-conservative agenda neither Red Tory like Morley Kells nor Reformer like Patrick Boyer so problems will keep him out knocking on doors for days. Meanwhile, Jean Augustine, the Liberal candidate is trying to pull a I-am-Canadian-because-I-am-socially-liberal routine that many residents don't care for or against, just that she help the government waste their tax dollars. Augustine is a progressive or social democrat they don't need while Capobianco is a tax and program cutter they now want.
21/06/04 MD
Email: [hidden]
I keep hearing about the strong Conservative support and vast number of signs in the area, and I personally am confused. As a resident of the area, I see mostly Liberal and NDP signage. As well of the 3 main candidates, only Augustine has been by my home, a total of 3 times! I have yet to see the Conservative- Capobianco or NDP- McHugh, even in the form of literature.
Note: Someone sould tell the NDP that using electronic telephone solicitation only swings my vote in the other direction. Not a good move!/TD>
21/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
I work in the riding and can say that the NDP has no presence whatsoever. This is at best a two-way race, not a three-way race as the previous poster suggests. I say at best, because it seems pretty evident that Augustine is going to lose. She has been unwilling to debate, which will hurt her. And Capobianco seems to have a lot of support throughout the riding, at least in terms of signs. It's hard to believe that a riding that just booted out a long-standing Conservative eight months ago in the provincial election will turn around and vote another one in federally. But that seems to be the way it's going. Etobicoke-Lakeshore will probably be the only Conservative riding in Toronto after June 28.
21/06/04 Ed
Email: ed@interlog.com
Followup: This morning I was killing time at the Starbucks on Bloor when in walked Jean Augustine and a couple of her people. They sat down with a coffee and chatted. They were still there when I left 40 minutes later. So they spent from 8 a.m. to 8:40 at least - prime time to be shaking hands with people going to work - sitting and drinking coffee. What are we to make of this? Is she so confident of victory she can relax? Does she think she's doomed to defeat anyway, so why bother? Or does she feel that her presence is actually a liability (as Capobianco seems to feel in his literature)? I don't know.
When I got home, I got my first literature from her. It was an attack on the Conservatives, with heaps of misleading and totally false statements. This seems co-ordinated with the new smear ads we're seeing on TV. I'd like to think people wouldn't fall for any more Liberal lies, but talking to my neighbours, they're eating it up. They were former Liberals leaning Conservative, but now are voicing concerns, quoting the Liberal statements as if they were gospel. I still think Capobianco will take it, but I'm far less sure now.
21/06/04 Mike S
Email: [hidden]
I'll be the first to admit that I do not know the intricacies of Etobicoke campaigns, and do not often visit.
But what I do know is that I drove through what I later found out was the riding of E-L, and was AMAZED at the support for Capobianco.
On the sign war alone, he should win by about 10 points.
21/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Three way split. This will depend on who gets the vote out. Either NDP or Cnservatives could take it, and one likely will.
16/06/04 young penguin
Email: [hidden]
This riding has historically been a bellwether riding. When the NDP was in government provincially there was Ruth Grier (NDP health minister). When Harris/Eves was happening we had a PC (Morley Kells). In 2003, a Liberal (Laurel Broten) solidly defeated the moderate Kells--despite his strong name recognition and history as a Bill Davis minister. Federally, the riding was held by a PC (Patrick Boyer) during the Mulroney days. During the Chretien years... you guessed it--we've had a Liberal.
It is hard to say whether the "vote for the government" trend will be broken. Different about this election is that the incumbent is junior minister and stands-out (vis-a-vis others) 'cause of her demographics. Also, her background and progressive views make it easier for her to draw the minority vote, the multicultural vote and the women's vote, which have had a stronger tendency to vote NDP than PC or Alliance/Reform.
Capobianco is a Harris style neo-con and he is doing his best to hide that. He was the youth co-chair for the Harris campaign in '95 and a former Ontario PC Youth president. The Ontario PC Youth of the 90s were known for their radical views (but largely ignored by the mainstream media). I don't think he is star candidate, as some conservative cheerleaders have suggested. He just happens to be in a Toronto riding where the CPC actually have a fighting chance. It is for this reason that he is getting some attention and drawing some volunteers from other ridings (where the CPC have no chance).
The deciding factor is going to be the NDP, which will likely have a better showing than in the recent past; Layton is a Toronto-based leader and committed to urban renewal. Also, the (negative) Bob Rae effect, that dogged the NDP in the 90s, is now largely history.
Personally, I don't think the NDP vote will be as strong as the Ontario (poll) numbers suggest; Augustine is a progressive. She was on national TV (CBC) recently talking about the woman's right to choose. Also, the equal marriage folks like her; she voted against the Alliance motion on marriage. I think she will win in a squeaker--if the Liberal stay where they are in the polls.
16/06/04 Full
Email: [hidden]
As fortunes improve for the Conservatives nationally, Capobianco's campaign is looking stronger with each passing day. Despite NOW magazine's reports of the targeting of Etobicoke-Lakeshore by Liberal operatives intent on keeping Toronto-area seats, the Augustine campaign is visible only through its lawn sign coverage. The candidate is nowhere to be found while Capobianco is knocking on doors every night. A stronger NDP presence as a result of Layton's impressive showing in the debates will only hasten the exodus of Liberal voters from Augustine's supporters list. The Capobianco campaign shows no signs of slowing down and all signs point to a Conservative pick-up in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.
I don't doubt that the response for Capobianco in the Kingsway was great. However, there is more to the riding than just the Kingsway (much to their own chagrine I might add). For what it's worth I am predicting a Capobianco win here. His support in the north part of the riding, particularly the Kingsway is quite strong but what is really suprising is how well he is doing south of the Queensway. His sign count is quite high and significantly outnumbers the NDP and Liberal. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, the Alliance out-signed the Liberals in 2000 and got obliterated.
Jean's campaign is definately in trouble and lacking for workers and yes, she is avoiding the all-candidates debate, though I wouldn't draw any conclusions from that. She's been dodging people that way for years.
15/06/04 Craig
Email: [hidden]
I think Jean might still take it. I say this with a bit of doubt in my voice and my reasons are as follows. Capobianco has signs everywhere, but for every Capobianco sign I see, I see a Liberal sign. Really they appear neck and neck. The problem is this, Jean is not out there and she doesn't appear to care about our riding. I had to sign a petition just to attempt to force a Candidate's Debate because Jean was only available for 1 hour on 1 day for the entire campaign.
14/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
I just got back from canvassing with Capobianco. The response in the Kingsway was AMAZING.
13/06/04 Kingsway Kingpin
Email: [hidden]
Capobianco needs to do three things to win: (1) expand/retain the Conservative base among higher income professionals who live in the northern part of the riding; (2) win 35 to 45 percent of the lower income voters who are socially conservative but economically more ambivalent in the southern and western parts of the riding; and (3) crack the Italian vote. I'd say he has accomplished (1) and (2). The jury is still out on Italians although there are some encouraging signs for JC.
06/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
If the Conservatives pick up any seats in T.O., this will likely be one of them. Anti-amalgamation sentiment was less strong in the burbs than in the older parts of the city, and the combined PC-CA vote in 2000 was within 5,000 or so of Ms. Augustine. The National Post's musings a while ago about the possibility of an NDP victory here, were no more than evidence of the anti-Liberal bias of that paper. This one's too close to call right now. If Liberal support in Toronto is sliding as it is in the backwoods, Etobicoke-Lakeshore will go Tory.
29/05/04 The Mongoose
Email: [hidden]
A quick look on the ground here in Etobicoke-Lakeshore shows that unless Liberal fortunes in Ontario improve substantially, Jean Augustine is toast.
Capobianco is everywhere. The Sun, the Star and even NOW magazine are taking notice of his thriving campaign. The riding is flooded with his literature and signs, even in areas that Augustine won by huge margins last time. He's canvassing constatly, and has to be picking up support from the Italian community that would normally vote Liberal.
Capobianco has a large, extremely talented team, lots of money (his lit pieces are probably the best in the country) and all the momentum. To top it all off, people here are furious about the McGuinty budget of lies and tax hikes, and the new condos springing up on the lakeshore will vote overwhelmingly conservative, as the original Palace Pier condos did in 2003, 2000 and 1999.
If the Tories stay at 35 or higher in Ontario, this seat is a lock for Capobianco, who is loking like the Tories' best bet in the 416. Even at 30-35, he'd probably still win on the strength of his ground campaign, and the weakness of Augustine's.
28/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Well guess what...from a Liberal lead of over 20%, we are now down to a Liberal lead of about 5%...a lot more in Toronto overall, but the Conservatives are starting to knock on the door of the great city. One of the easier doors to enter through is Etobicoke Lakeshore...it has a solid Conservative section in the Kingsway and other areas abutting Bloor Street. Will the old Lakeshore (Mimico, New Toronto and Long branch) split between the three parties, leaving the Liberals precariously hoping to edge out a victory in the Queensway section of the riding...Too close to call...
26/05/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
With due respect to the EP, this riding should be classified as "too close to call" right up to debate night, or until Stephen Harper goes crazy and boldly announces the 'culture of dependency' that permeates condos in the west end of Toronto. (Or until Paul Martin announces $100 BILLION dollars of condo infrastructure funding while hugging a whale ostensibly saved by his funding cuts of the 1990s)
Why? Because anyone who believes that you can simply add the 2000 PC and CA totals, or rely upon the 2000 Grit majorities, to divine a winner is dreaming about their prognosticating abilities in technicolour.
The X-factor is right wing unification, which promises to play hell with the voting intentions of people across Ontario. In ridings like this one, where a cursory statistical analysis of the 2000 election would suggest a scrap decided by a few percentage points, who knows whether the availability of a single right-wing alternative will drive up turnout, cause some de facto Liberal voters to think twice, or drive former PC supporters to the Grit camp... The Y-Factor, pointed out by several in this chain, is relative NDP support across the province. Any way you cut it, this is one riding that should be, by definition and common sense, "too close to call".
Why does Capobianco win? I guarantee you he outpolls his party in Ontario by a few points, and that should be enough. He might not be a 'household' name (he isn't Michael Jordon), but he does command the respect and friendship of a number of prominent and intelligent Tories both young and old. THEY believe this is the riding in the 416 that they can win... and sometimes that matters more than condos.
15/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
In Ontario, with the Liberals ahead some 49 to 26% (Ipsos Reid of Friday, May 16...nb, their sample has suddenly doubled in size), it is becoming difficult for a wide-spread Conservative breakthrough in Ontario...my personal riding count is dropping to the 10-15 range for the Conservatives in Ontario...though any increase in support to say 30 or so will certainly bring more seats...
However, here I want to discuss the issues of condominium voting and if there are a host of new condominium apartments along Etobicoke's Lakeshore, it would certainly bode well for the Conservatvies...
Condominium dwellers pay their municipal taxes directly, just like homeowners...once you do so, it gives you a take on taxes that apartment dwellers can't appreciate; it gives entree to parties promising either tax relief or at least platforms trying to hold the line.
Does this translate? YES! Diverse ridings in Toronto with condominium clusters show overlapping Conservative support. Palace Pier has almost never voted other than Conservative (I do hope it is a condominium). Just north, condos in Markland woods are often solidly Conservative. The expensive condos lining the harbour in Toronto-Rosedale and Trinity-Spadina ridings vote much more heavily Conservative than areas nearby...In 1988, those new condos provided David MacDonald's margin of victory over Bill Graham. So too, in Scarborough-Agincourt, there are a group of condos just south of Steeles avenue that are often the only piolls voting Conservative in the riding...
In Etobicoke Lakeshore, these condos reinforce the votes in the north end of the riding with the old Kingsway, similar and adjacent areas south of Bloor Street...provided the rest of the riding, still working class, splits, these combined areas can deliver the riding to the Conservatives.
[Take my comments as one who used to know the Lakeshore very well...but who has to take as given that a lot of new condos are going into the riding]
10/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Even if Jean Augustine's mandate has grown with each election (and electoral memories of Patrick Boyer fade), it remains mushy-wishy-washy by Toronto Liberal standards; it's not that surprising that she's being concertedly targeted by a party noteworthy like Capobianco. But, the *one* Conservative win in the 416? It was the nearest Conservative win in 1993, but that was because of Patrick Boyer (and maybe a touch of the race factor), not because of a natural party base per se. Although said base exists--it's Etobicoke, after all--but that sure didn't help Morley Kells provincially in 2003, even though he tried to strike a Boyeresque above-the-fray note. For the NDP to have polled on top here is a little curious (especially as *both* halves of the seat leaned to John Tory for mayor); maybe thats assuming Irene Jones' candidacy, but with Irene Jones reportedly *not* running, it looks a little more like a quixotic 70s-time-warp mirage. Unless the party knows s! omething we don't know--after all, even now with the factories gone and the condos coming in, the optimum "Alexa effect" cannot help but touch a seat which *has* had, provincially and federally, a degree of New Democratic lustre. (and using Jones' not inconsiderable 2003 tally as a platform upon which to build). Maybe, or maybe not, the best opportunity for a 3-way tussle in Toronto.
10/05/04 AJTK
I would be interested to know the basis upon which, the condo development means an influx of more right-winged voters. It's entirely possible that this is the case, though this hasn't been proven in any reasonable way by anyone. And as an aside, in the last provincial election, much of the liberal supporter (especially in the south) was somewhat soft (soft, meaining leaning toward the NDP). Why would people who just voted strategically to get rid of a convservative government elect another government that promised to be just as right-winged?
And another point worth discussing is the alleged star-power of Cappi. In what sense is he a star candidate? He's a Vice-President of some company somewhere? And what has he done for the community? I'm sorry but the guy is not a household name in any meaningful sense and has not done anything substantive to raise his profile. I live in a very tory-friendly part of the riding and have not received any lit or a knock at the door. I would have expected a little bit more from a supposed star candidate.
Again, barring a liberal collapse, it is staying in Augustine's hands (much to my own disappointment I might add).
05/05/04 J
Email: [hidden]
AJTK should take the time and take a look at how the riding is changing. Lousy motels on the lakeshore disappear and are replaced by condominiums. The Conservatives are putting together a pretty impressive campaign of vounteers and Augustine has been/is invisible. As to the missive of hombresvic ... "respected cabinet minister", "most recognizable visible minority Canadian" ... please return to earth. Augustine is so out of touch with the average person of this community that she took on Don Cherry! Augustine might be the one. The one Liberal to lose to a conservative in the 416.
04/05/04 AJTK
Email: [hidden]
Firstly, this riding has not been getting better for the conservatives. Their combined vote total in the last three elections has been decreasing. Augustine, I believe, took over 50% in 2000. While the liberals, nationally, are not doing particularly well, they are polling 49% in the GTA. If that number is accurate, then there's no way Cappi is getting in unless there is a liberal collapse.
"This guy is a powerhouse and attracted the big guns like John Tory, Jim Flaherty, Frank Klees, Tony Clement, Gloria Lindsey Luby, Rose Andrachuk, Patrick Boyer, Rob Ford, John Nunziata" - that and a quarter will get you a phone call. Hate to burst the bubble of the tories trolling here, but unless there is a liberal collapse, Lakeshore isn't going Conservative. The combined conservative/reform/alliance vote has actually decreased in each of the last three elections. Augustine picked up over 50% in the last federal. Right now, the grits are polling 49% in the GTA. If you factor out downtown ridings where there the NDP is a contender and the Don-Valley ridings where the tories will have a strong showing, then that number here is a probably above 50% again. If that GTA polled included the 905 belt, then it's worse still for the conservatives in E-L.
04/05/04 hombresvic@hotmail.com
Email: Victor A.
Mr. Capobianco a powerhouse??? I guess in the Tony Clement sense of the word, LOL. Why would people not choose a respected cabinet member, a highly educated and the most recognized visible minority Canadian over some second rated choice from the right wing PC party. LOL, we are not in the rural Alberta here, we're in the heart of the urban Canada. Secondly, if Mr. Brown thinks that 200 is a lot, then at least it does explain his definition of what the powerhouse means. The PC should focus on Etobicoke-Centre, the only riding in Toronto they could win and not lose time here. Jean Augustine is the one and only one.
02/05/04 Mr. Brown
Email: [hidden]
John Capobianco's office opening May 1, at the corner of Bloor & Royal York was packed right out onto the street - like 200-300 people ranging from young to older. This guy is a powerhouse and attracted the big guns like John Tory, Jim Flaherty, Frank Klees, Tony Clement, Gloria Lindsey Luby, Rose Andrachuk, Patrick Boyer, Rob Ford, John Nunziata and there were people writing cheques on the spot, getting their photos with him and asking what else could they do to help elect him to replace Augustine. If Capobianco can unite that kind of support under a big tent, motivated to get rid of the Liberals, he will be the next MP.
27/04/04 J
Email: [hidden]
This is a riding that gets better for Conservative candidates every election. The riding continues to grow north of Bloor taking in more and more of the Kingsway and also adds hundreds of affluent voters on the lakeshore with condo developments. Capobianco is a star candidate for the conservatives. His ability to draw in volunteers from across the GTA will make it very difficult for Augustine to hold on in this seat.
21/04/04 Millie
Email: [hidden]
I think Jean Augustine has worked hard in this riding. She has strong presence here and name recognition. The Alliance candidate is not known in this riding at all. Who has ever heard of him? And the NDP?...not in this riding. Ms Augustine seems to be held in high regard by the leadership of the party as she has been appointed to cabinet by two Prime Ministers. This one will go to the liberals.
19/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Cappie is the first Tory here in a long time who knows how to campaign and will do well against Chretien invention Augustine. Results are likely to be similar to those that elected Patrick Boyer, but this riding is better than it was then. Jones is a pretty good candidate and will siphon left votes away from Jean.
15/04/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
A Conservative win here is not impossible. Actually, if the Reform/PC Parties didn't split the vote in 1993, the Liberal incumbent wouldn't even be the MP here, as this was one of the 25 vote-split ridings in that election (by about 4,000 votes). Jean has only gained re-election by about the same amount of votes but the support for the Reform/PC dropped slightly...so I'm guessing because of a lower voter turnout. The Liberals here are more Sheila Copps Liberals and may be happier with the NDP. So a Conservative could squeak in, but by a small margin.
04/04/04 Dwight
Email: [hidden]
I'm a New Democrat myself, but as much as I would like to see an NDP victory here, I don't see this riding changing hands anytime soon. Working class suburbs of Toronto like Etobicoke and Scarborough used to elect New Democrats. This hasn't happened in years, however. Today, Toronto's NDP base is among middle class professionals in the pre-amalgamated city of Toronto. So as much as the NDP is going up in the polls, it won't be enough for Etobicoke-Lakeshore. They got 6% last time.
As for the Conservatives, I don't think looking at combined PC/Alliance numbers will mean that it will result in a similar number for the united Conservative Party. I'm pretty certain most "united right" votes in rural eastern and southwestern Ontario will go for the new party, but I don't think it will be true in Toronto.
Prediction: LIB 54%, CPC 26%, NDP 17%, others 3%
20/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Name recognition will win this for the Liberals
17/03/04 The Masked Tory
Irene Jones is one of the worst candidates I have ever met. John Capobianco will win this one. Easily.
Etobicoke-Lakeshore elected a conservative councillor (Mark Grimes)after 15 years of Irene Jones. They are tired of socialist rhetoric. Cappy will take this one from Jean Augustine.
17/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
The provincial campaign entirely dispelled the myth of Irene Jones being a strong candidate. (Underwhelming would be an understatment. 20% is hardly strong showing considering this riding was once NDP core riding with the respected Terry and Ruth Grier) Further, Lakeshore as a riding has became more and more affluent. The shift of support is toward the Tories if there are any movement.
16/03/04 D. Ross
Email: [hidden]
Although Liberal incumbent Jean Augustine was re-elected with the support of over 50% of the areas constituents in 2000, she is gunning for her fourth term and is up against some stiff competition. If Irene Jones, a long time city councillor who faired quite well in last years provincial election (she received 20% of the votes), ends up running for the NDP, then she is likely take away votes from Augustine and leave the door open for John Capobianco, the well-known and respected Conservative candidate. Considering that the two conservative parties received a combine total of 40% of voter support in 2000, the culmination of the Liberal sponsorship scandal and the unification of the two parties is likely to attract voters. Therefore, I’m predicting John Capobianco.
15/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
This could be quite the upset. The National Post is saying that the NDP are in the lead! If Irene Jones runs here, there's a very good chance for a pickup. The sponsorship scandal also helps.
11/03/04 JW
On Jan 8, The National Post named Etobicoke-Lakeshore as a riding which internal Liberal polling had indentified as a loss to the NDP. And this was before the Great Grit Slide. The NDP is hoping Irene Jones will announce her candidacy. If the 15-year veteran of city council runs, it's even less likely that Jean Augustine will be returning to Ottawa.

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