Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2009/10

Etobicoke-Lakeshore


Prediction Changed
2009-08-19 21:19:31
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Incumbent:
Michael Ignatieff

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • etobicoke-lakeshore (210/210 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    09 08 31 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    So E-L saw ‘the best showing for the Tories in 20 years in 2008’; big deal, not only were there any number of seats across Ontario to claim likewise, the result still fell noticeably short of the ‘united right’ totals of 93-97-00. And unlike 93(PC)-04-06, it was no longer the best Tory showing in the 416--even if, in an inspired-on-paper gesture, the '08 CPC nominee happened to be that '93 PC record-breaker, Patrick Boyer. Boyer vs Iggy: maybe the only case where the CPCer was more left-voter-compatible than the Liberal--and maybe that, in the end, was Boyer's electoral problem, more than the fact of Iggy being Iggy. Now, for reasons all too obvious, the seat's likely become totally out of the picture for non-Grits.
    09 08 23 binriso
    156.34.209.15
    Ignatieff won 46-35 last election and there are so many reasons why he will win by a much higher number.
    1)He is the Leader, usually giving him extra votes
    2)Liberals are polling way better in Ontario and are mostly ahead or tied with the CPC
    3)The CPC will not be running as strong a candidate
    4)The other parties will likely be running token candidates
    All this leads up to a huge win, probably something like 60% for Ignatieff
    09 08 20 R.O.
    209.91.149.133
    It really doesn't matter who the ndp or conservatives run here as Ignatieff is now the most high profile liberal around as odd is that one sounds considering he's only been in politics since 2006 .
    09 08 18 Nick J Boragina
    198.96.35.219
    It is extremely unlikely that Michael Ignatieff will lose his seat. Remember that despite this being one of the strongest Tory ridings in the city, and despite the best showing for the Tories in 20 years in 2008, Iggy was able to retain his seat with ease. Now that he is leader and now that polls suggest he may be the next PM, I don't see how he could lose.



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