Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-19 21:19:00

Constituency Profile


Corail, Dave

Erickson, Michael

Ignatieff, Michael

Murray, Janice

Trottier, Bernard

Michael Ignatieff

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • etobicoke-lakeshore (210/210 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 Sad Liberal
    I have been told by a high placed Liberal that there will be no ‘coup’ to get rid of Ignatieff after the election since he is losing the riding.
    11 05 01 J. E. L.
    Iggy is so beatable here. Especially with the polls predicting Liberal doom and a recent article blasting Iggy's pathetic riding rep performance. Too bad his opponents didn't see that coming and nominated only token candidates with minimal resources.
    Even so, I've noticed a significant sign shift in the past couple of weeks. Before, Iggy clearly dominated, with at least three for every one of Trottier's. Lately I've been seeing more blue ones appearing and red ones vanishing, perhaps even a small majority Conservative. (NDP is not a factor.) I hesitated to say anything until I took a drive yesterday around the southern half of the riding and saw the same pattern.
    Still, how much can you glean from signs? Most people don't have them. There's no evidence of the Orange Surge here, so I don't see any leftward bleeding of Liberal votes.
    Bottom line: Iggy could have been beaten, saving us the expense of a by-election in a few months. Could still happen, as he's perceived as a total loser. But in the end, without better evidence, I have to agree he'll win.
    11 04 30 MB
    I agree that the idea that Ignatieff will lose his seat is absurd. There seems to be a lack of understanding among some as to how our electoral system works. I have seen a number of posts that seem to suggest that because a party's national and/or provincial numbers are showing a certain trend that we can project that same trend to every riding. The Liberal numbers may be down province-wide, but the Liberal vote is very concentrated in certain areas, such as the 416. So while they may at 20% in Ontatio, that does not mean they are at 20% in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. There is no evidence that the Liberals are going to lose most of their seats in the 416 region, and particularly this one.
    11 04 30 Andrew K
    I'm sorry to deflate people, but predicting a Liberal loss to the Tories is not simply wishful thinking. This is a very Conservative part of Toronto. Rob Ford did very well here. In the 1993 Liberal landslide, the Tories got their best Toronto-area result here.
    The question is: how high are the Tories in Ontario? Angus-Reid had them at 41%, with the NDP and Liberals split.
    Now, to play devils advocate, some of the NDP support will come at the expense of the conservatives (lots of NDP support went to the Reform party back in the day), so it is possible that a rising NDP may actually hurt the Tories more than the Liberals.
    The board moderators have to make the call, and I may yet be proven wrong, but it is within the realm of possibility right now that Iggy may actually lose.
    11 04 28 rsg
    that last partisan posting is so laughable i almost fell out of my chair. The Conservative numbers are falling as well in Ontario, and i might add that their strength has been mostly rural. Michael Ignatieff will not lose his riding, what a ridiculous post. and, by the way, you refer to his attendance record it's accurate, i'm not disputing that, however, the reason for those absences are justified as Mr. Ignatieff upon becoming Liberal party leader was out connecting and engaging in dialogue with Canadians, something Stephen Harper ought to try doing instead of running a bubble campaign with invited party faithful to functions and taking only 5 questions a day.
    11 04 28 Andrew K
    Watching the Nanos poll in Ontario, the Liberals are low enough that, even without a major swing in the vote to the NDP, Ignatieff could actually lose this seat.
    I would move this one to the too close to call category.
    11 04 25 Robert C
    Weakening Liberal numbers coupled with strengthening Conservative numbers, no good answer to an abysmal House attendance record, and possible vote splitting by the fast charging NDP may make this the 'surprise' of the election. Agree that if Iggy got smoked as a losing party leader, he probably wouldn't last until the next election anyway.
    11 04 24 binriso
    Iggy also came in at a bad time for the party in general, first winning his seat just as the party itself was being defeated, party infighting, The Liberals becoming irrelevant in more and more rural ridings in the country, very low levels of support in Quebec and the West, cracks appearing in fortress Montreal and Toronto and so on. I seriously doubt he will last till next election as leader, though he will win his seat anyways this time. That 30% attendance record that was mentioned by Layton was definitely the line of the campaign though.
    11 04 23 LondonMike
    In some ways it might be a gift to Mr. Ignatieff is he lost his seat. At this point he has no chance of being Prime Minister. He just hasn't connected with voters at all. By losing the seat, he could easily walk away and resume his life.
    It is hard to believe that Mr. Ignatieff, a globally known author, broadcaster, historian, could not impress the Canadian people more than a career politician like Stephen Harper.
    11 04 19 SG
    No danger for the liberals in this riding. Who wouldn't want a high profile candidate, much less a party leader and potential prime minister in their riding. Should be an easy win.
    11 04 05 will1987
    While Ignatieff might see the tightest race (% wise) in terms of the four party leaders, his seat isn't in much danger.
    11 04 03 Marco Ricci
    Michael Ignatieff is facing some criticism for his low-profile in his own riding, as this article and news report discusses:
    It's possible that Ignatieff's vote could go down in this election if he does not improve his visibility in the riding.
    11 04 01 MH
    In 2008 Michael Ignatieff beat Patrick Boyer, who represented this riding during the Mulroney years, by more than 5,700 votes. If Boyer couldn't take it in that election, Bernard Trottier is very unlikely to do the trick in this one. This is all the more true because so far Ignatieff has run a more effective campaign nationally and Stephen Harper a less effective campaign than I, for one, anticipated. A Liberal hold.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This maybe one of the most favourable Tory prospects in the 416, however leaders rarely lose their riding unless they get wiped out like Kim Campbell did in 1993. If he does as poorly as the polls suggest, the results should be similiar to the last two elections, while if he runs a strong campaign, Ignatieff will probably crack the 50% and the Tories will struggle to get even 30%.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    However well or poorly Ignatieff does in this election, I certainly don't foresee him losing his seat.
    11 03 26 J. E. L.
    This could actually get interesting. Iggy has been useless as an MP, but I doubt that matters much. More importantly, pollster Nik Nanos stated yesterday that, in his experience, when an election is about someone, that someone usually loses. He gave as examples John Tory, Dion and Martin. So far, from all the comments and blogs I'm reading, it's about Iggy, and it doesn't look good. Still, the only other party in this race is the Conservatives and I've never heard of their candidate. And, with a week being an eternity in politics and 5 weeks still to go, it's far too early to be sure of anything. But I really can't see Iggy losing here.
    11 03 10 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    When has a sitting, major-party leader been ousted by the electorate in recent memory? The only one I can think of is Kim Campbell and that was only during the PC implosion of '93. No such thing happening with the Liberals now (Weak? Yes. Imploding? No.). Torontonians are warming slightly to the CPC (or rather more likely cooled to the Liberals) and there are far more likely gains in other 416 ridings. With Iggy as party leader the Liberals will ensure he gets elected (that is assuming worse case scenerio).
    08 12 18 Consensusmaker
    Weak party leaders are no 'sure thing' to win their seats, especially if seen as just another interim leader (5 leaders in 7 years!). The Liberal GTA fortress is springing leaks, as Julian Fantino was elected for the Conservatives right on the border with Toronto and conservative Rob Ford swept the Etobicoke polls against former Liberal Deputy Premier George Smitherman in the recent municipal election. With weakening Liberal numbers and nomination of a more traditional conservative candidate, Etobicoke Lakeshore, (amongst other Toronto ridings) is TCTC.
    09 08 31 A.S.
    So E-L saw ‘the best showing for the Tories in 20 years in 2008’; big deal, not only were there any number of seats across Ontario to claim likewise, the result still fell noticeably short of the ‘united right’ totals of 93-97-00. And unlike 93(PC)-04-06, it was no longer the best Tory showing in the 416--even if, in an inspired-on-paper gesture, the '08 CPC nominee happened to be that '93 PC record-breaker, Patrick Boyer. Boyer vs Iggy: maybe the only case where the CPCer was more left-voter-compatible than the Liberal--and maybe that, in the end, was Boyer's electoral problem, more than the fact of Iggy being Iggy. Now, for reasons all too obvious, the seat's likely become totally out of the picture for non-Grits.
    09 08 23 binriso
    Ignatieff won 46-35 last election and there are so many reasons why he will win by a much higher number.
    1)He is the Leader, usually giving him extra votes
    2)Liberals are polling way better in Ontario and are mostly ahead or tied with the CPC
    3)The CPC will not be running as strong a candidate
    4)The other parties will likely be running token candidates
    All this leads up to a huge win, probably something like 60% for Ignatieff
    09 08 20 R.O.
    It really doesn't matter who the ndp or conservatives run here as Ignatieff is now the most high profile liberal around as odd is that one sounds considering he's only been in politics since 2006 .
    09 08 18 Nick J Boragina
    It is extremely unlikely that Michael Ignatieff will lose his seat. Remember that despite this being one of the strongest Tory ridings in the city, and despite the best showing for the Tories in 20 years in 2008, Iggy was able to retain his seat with ease. Now that he is leader and now that polls suggest he may be the next PM, I don't see how he could lose.

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